The year 2022 in U.S. politics starts with a relatively quiet and fairly predictable election contest in southern Florida.. After the passing of previous incumbent Alcee Hastings, D and a markedly contentious Democratic primary last year to succeed him, the progressive nominee Shelia Cherfilus-McCormick (who won by 5 votes in the primary over Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness) is expected to win over Republican Jason Mariner. A Libertarian and two Independents are also on the ballot. The 20th Florida Congressional district took it’s present form beginning in 2012, comprising parts of Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach (parts of Broward and Palm Beach Counties), and extending to the shores of Lake Okeechobee and including the community of Belle Glade. Congressman Hastings won successive victories with next to 80% of the vote … if Cherfilus-McCormick continues this trend of garnering 4/5ths of the vote it would not portend anything apart from normal voting patterns for Democrats … a vote significantly lower might be indicative of the aftermath of the contentious Democratic party or overall lack of interest in the special election as opposed to any great surge in Republican support (where Democrats as a whole have bucked statewide trends in polling stronger in this district since 2016).

Currently embattled Conservative U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is running in the single digits behind Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer, but in the last several weeks has seen his leadership tested by revelations of senior Conservatives flouting their own COVID-19 rules in holding Christmas parties last year; as well as struggling to pass new COVID-19 measures with nearly a third of his caucus defying his direction and forcing him to rely on opposition support.

This comes after he was responsible for whipping his caucus to overturn a suspension on the former Conservative M.P. for North Shropshire, Owen Patterson, who resigned his seat after being accused of violating lobbying rules on behalf of two companies. Earlier Johnson faced controversy over expenses related to the refurbishment of his flat and a luxury vacation he took.

As Mr. Patterson’s resignation has trigged the by-election, the main question will be if over a century of solid Conservative voting history will be enough to overcome some ominous clouds in the middle of Johnson’s mandate.

In looking at the voting history of North Shropshire, and the earlier constituency that roughly encompassed the same area, Oswestry (which was in turn preceded by North Shropshire for most of the 19th century) it is impressive how long the Tory blue streak has continued.

First created in 1832 as a dual member constituency, North Shropshire initially had as one of their two M.P.s a Whig, John Coates, but was otherwise solid Tory through the constituency’s abolishment in 1885. The constituency of Oswestry compromised much the same area and continued much the same voting patterns, only being interrupted in a 1904 by-election where Liberal Allan Bright won a close vote, only to lose the seat to the Tories in the general election in 1906. While a few elections thereafter were close fought, by the 1930s the Conservatives routinely won with double digit leads, and the pattern continued through the reconstitution of the area back to North Shropshire in 1983, and saw a close race only during Labour’s 1997 landslide win, where the open seat saw Owen Patternson beat the Labour challenger by only 4 percentage points or 2,000 votes.

Beset by numerous controversies and scandals, by-elections are traditionally a way for constituencies to sometimes break free of traditional voting patterns and send a message to the Government without fear of unduly rocking the boat (if the Government’s majority is otherwise secure). It would be a combination of some conscious movement towards consolidating behind the Liberal Democratic candidate, Helen Morgan; plus general Tory disaffection and low turnout on their part that would likely give Ms. Morgan a narrow win. The Tory candidate who, if victorious, would likely have a narrow win as well, is Dr. Neil Shastri Hurst, a NHS surgeon who has pointedly condemned the Conservative Christmas festivities last year and promised to bring more funding for NHS services in the area. But while health services is the local issue, it is under the backdrop of the larger issue of Boris Johnson’s leadership that this election is likely to turn.

It is interesting to note that the characterization of the 1904 by-election producing the last non-Tory win in the area, as quoted through Wikipedia “The result was ‘a great surprise for both Conservatives and Liberals alike‘. Bright believed that the electorate had rejected the government, and that ‘the whole of Shropshire politics had been simply a policy of Tory bluff and the people seemed to have got tired of it‘.”

While there is no way that they could have anticipated the circumstances 117 years later, but should the Liberal Democrat pull out a win, the same might be written today leading one to wonder if history really does repeat itself.

Quick synopsis of race … PEI PC Premier Dennis King has a bare majority of 14 out of 27 seats and is riding and was last sitting, per Narrative Research poll, at 48 percent popularity … the Greens (having been neck and neck with the Liberals for much of the current legislative assembly) are now in second place in the same poll at 28 percent, with the Liberals back at 17 and the NDP slightly better than polling averages at 7 percent.

Cornwall Meadowbank is about a 15 minute drive from Charlottetown and has been the most reliable of Liberal ridings in the past 35 years, being the 1 seat to withstand the PC sweep in 2000. It is also worth noting that Green leader Peter Bevan-Baker’s riding is next door, and the Greens did place in second place in the last general election, in 2019. The previous incumbent, Heath MacDonald, ran and won election to the federal House of Commons earlier this year.

Despite the fact that the Liberals trail in third place with no permanent leader, the provincial Greens retain a considerable level of support despite their federal counterparts’ decline and the relative popularity of the governing PCs, this election will be a barometer of whether Islanders still support the two main parties alignment (Liberals and PCs) and on that basis, the Liberals should come out slightly ahead.

The main issue is health care and the perceived lack of access/availability of care. All candidates agree that the situation can improve, it is more a question of how and if how much blame the current PC government deserves. Also in the background is the Cornwall bypass issue, where the Trans-Canada highway was rerouted several years ago to bypass Cornwall proper, to mixed reviews with some residents supportive, and others opposed.

The race will ultimately come down to whether the PCs should add another seat to their thin majority, and if the answer is no, whether the Greens or Liberals would be the best party to represent the opposition. (Most observers don’t believe that the NDP has the polling support to win.) The PCs will probably keep this close and win one of the two top spots … but the riding has thus far resisted any blue wave. The opposition will probably coalesce between green and red and all indications are the riding stays red after the results are in this evening.

Why Virginia may not be the bell-weather it is hyped to be

If you look at the headlines for tomorrow’s off year elections, you might conclude that Virginia Governor’s race is the latest pivotal race in a near deadlocked 50/50 partisan divide for control of the national agenda.  And indeed, there is probably some merit to the idea that whatever party wins the Virginia Governorship, it will shift some of the narrative towards the victorious party, validating certain strategies, being a barometer of sorts with the current political climate, voter enthusiasm and even, beneath the overall result, possibly show some continuing trends of such diverse, multilayered and frequently overlapping constituencies as suburban voters, blue collar workers and the Hispanic population.

But as some type of indicator as to what will happen in 2022 or 2024, the Virginia Governor’s race is more limited.  The voting patterns of the Old Dominion have been remarkably stable at the Governor’s race, and no matter the victor tomorrow, it is likely that those trends will largely continue.

The only other jurisdiction in North America I can think of that almost deliberately votes for one party at the federal (Presidential) level and the opposite party at the state/provincial level is Ontario.  If we look at all post World War II elections, there are less than 10 years out of 76 that the government of Queen’s Park was the same party as in charge of Ottawa.

Virginia’s case is somewhat more complex, with those contrarian tendencies developing more recently, but the pattern is nonetheless clear.

First the Governorship  – like nearly all southern states, Virginia Democrats had a total lock on the Governor’s Mansion between the Reconstruction era and the Civil Rights era, in this particular instance between 1885 and 1969.  In 1969, Republicans won that year’s election and the succeeding three (two of which coincided with the Republican presidency of Nixon and Ford), but then the trend of one party state/one party federal starts as they continue to hold the Governor’s mansion in the election of 1977 during the Carter administration.  In 1981, the Governor’s mansion swings back to Democrats during the Reagan/Bush presidencies and the following three elections, and then two Republican wins during the Clinton presidency.  Democrats repeat two wins during the George W. Bush presidency, then one Republican win during Obama’s first term.  The only outlier where the Governorship went the same way as the Presidency was in 2013, with current Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe winning his first term that year. 

It is further worth noting that the incumbent President’s party does not appear to be following any early portents in Virginia.  For example, in 2001 Democrat Governor Mark Warner won the Governor’s mansion by a respectable if not overwhelming margin, but the Republicans made gains in the following year’s midterm elections for U.S. Congress.  In 2013, Terry McAuliffe broke a 36-year trend of electing opposite parties, but this did not stop the Democrats from losing the Presidency three years later.

Finally, for the last three decades, no party has controlled the Governor’s mansion for more than 2 terms (an incumbent Governor cannot run for re-election).  There might be something to be said about the 2013 outlier as supporting an overall trend towards a bluer state, but the state’s voting history for the Presidency suggests that broader Presidential trends are still a different set of gears than the state voting patterns.

Virginia has again a remarkable consistency of voting for President.  From the Reconstruction Era through to the post World War II era, we see a nearly solid Democrat voting history with 1928 being the only exception.  Beginning in 1952, the pattern completely flips and it is nearly solidly Republican for the next 54 years, the only exception being 1964.  Beginning in 2008, there begins a string of four Democratic wins, the latest being the widest Democratic victory since 1944.   One might argue here that at a state level, at least, the contrarian trend is less clear.  Virginia voted Republican in 1992, for President, for example, and then Republican the following year for Governor, the same situation in 1996 and 1997.

The long view of the results, though, suggests that the strongest relationship by far is the party winning the Presidency in the previous year’s election (regardless of how Virginia voted) is more apt to lose Governor’s race a year later, in other words, a strong relation to previous Presidential results.

It may be that new trends may emerge, for instance comparisons might be made between the last GOP win in Virginia in 2009, when Bob McDonnell won by 17 points and a Glenn Youngkin (R) victory this year, which will most likely not even be half that margin.  But that would have to be tempered by the fact that margins over recent decades have fluctuated for both parties.

Look for the following areas to flip giving Yougkin a victory – few areas on the Virginia map will change their colours outright, fading blue and darkening reds would drive most of the turnover – but south central counties near the capital, Richmond, and southeastern Virginia Beach may swap colours altogether. 

But the evidence doesn’t support (at least not yet) the idea that as Virginia goes, so goes the nation.  It is retroactive – more as the nation goes, Virginia will do the opposite next year.

Predictions

Glenn Youngkin, R  51.5% over Terry McAuliffe, D 48.2%

In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy faces a slightly closer challenge by Jack Ciattarelli, R, then polls suggest, probably a 49% – 45% win.

In Ohio’s 11^th Congressional District in the Cleveland area, longtime incumbent Marcia Fudge, D, vacated her seat last year to accept an appointment as Joe Biden’s Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.  Shontel Brown, the Democratic standard bearer, is expected to easily retain the seat against Republican Laverne Gore, by around a 75% – 25% win.

In Ohio’s more southern 15^th Congressional District, previous incumbent Republican Steve Stivers resigned to take a position with the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.  Republican Mike Carey is expected to win over Allison Russo, D, by around a 56%-44% margin.

In notable municipal races to be held tomorrow, either incumbents are largely looking to be returned or local voting tendencies will continue.

In the largest U.S. city,  Eric Adams, D is expected to win over Curtis Sliwa, by approximately a 65%-30% margin in New York.

In upstate New York, incumbent Byron Brown, a Democrat who lost renomination to India Walton, is expected to retain his position as an Independent with some significant support from local Republicans.

Across Lake Erie, two term Detroit mayor Mike Duggan is expected to be reelected to a third term in a non-partisan race with Anthony Adams as his primary opponent.

In Miami, Republican incumbent Francis X. Suarez is expected to win re-election; as is incumbent Democrat Jacob Frey in Minneapolis and Democratic incumbent LaToya Cantrell in New Orleans.

In open races, it appears that in Atlanta two Democratic candidates, Councilman Andre Dickens will advance with Atlanta City Council President Felicia Moore to a runoff to be held November 30^th, (where I predict Moore to succeed outgoing mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms). 

In Boston, Michelle Wu is heavily favoured to win the open seat against challenger Annissa Essaibi George.  In Cincinnati, Aftab Pureval is expected to win the mayoralty against veteran politician David Mann, a former mayor. Both are Democrats, but in an officially nonpartisan election.  In Cleveland, Justin Bibb, in a runoff with Kevin Kelley, is expected to succeed current mayor Frank G. Jackson.  In Pittsburgh, Democratic Ed Gainey is expected to win against Republican Tony Moreno.  Rounding out the big city mayoralty contests, in Seattle, Bruce Harrell is expected to win against Lorena Gonzalez to succeed outgoing mayor Jenny Durkan in a non-partisan contest.

Liberal Government to return to power – retains strength in eastern Canada; NDP gains in popular vote share; Conservatives, Bloc retain 2019 support although People’s Party limits Conservative gains, Greens keep 2 BC seats

Liberals 32.9% and 163 Seats *incl. 1 independent in Spadina-Fort York

Conservatives 29.9% and 114 Seats

NDP 18.93% and 30 Seats

Bloc Quebecois 6.87% and 29 Seats

Green 3.89% and 2 Seats

People’s Party of Canada – 6.17% and 0 Seats

Other – 1.34% and 0 Seats

The main upside to the Newsom campaign is the prospect of being replaced by staunch conservative Los Angeles talk show host Larry Elders, which has likely contributed to a widening of the polling margin indicating that the recall effort would fail. Against a generic opposition candidate Newsom still had a very small polling margin against a recall, but as the prospect of an Elders governorship became more visible, the polls clearly started to shift.

A another advantage for Newsom comes from the fact that no plausible Democratic candidate alternative emerged on the second ballot question. (The recall effort consists of two separate questions, first, whether to recall the Governor and second, who the replacement would be. The first question must pass in order for the second one to be in play. No specified percentage is required to win on the second ballot.)

The risks for Newsom are that the opposition forces to incumbency are generally more motivated in an off year election. The constituency and support for Newsom is there, so turnout will be key. On a county-by-county level, I am projecting that Santa Barbara and Sacramento counties will be tipping point counties, that will effectively determine the end result of the recall. Two other large counties to watch will be San Diego and Ventura, which according to my model are trending slightly in favor of recall, but where Newsom can easily hang on even if they slightly back the initiative. If they trend towards Newsom instead, the recall effort will be resoundingly defeated.

As with most voting trends in California, Democratic support is expected to be concentrated towards the cost in the Los Angeles and metro-San Francisco areas, moving more inland to Sacramento. Support for the recall will likely be strongest in the interior and more northern areas of the state, with some of the larger suburban counties around Los Angeles and San Diego trending towards the recall by much narrower margins. In predicting a 10 point initiative defeat, instead of the almost 16 points that 538 projects, I am controlling for the shy conservative factor, an inherent anti-recall turnout disadvantage in an off-year election and a widespread consensus that Newsom will survive the recall, (including widespread dissemination of polling averages such as 538’s) which may further reduce anti-recall turnout.

Ultimately there may be more concerted efforts to review the recall mechanism, which has been on the California books for over a century as part of the early 20th century progressive movement. Efforts aimed at changing the mechanism, however, would have to weigh the downsides (questions such as whether the electorate’s will is being genuinely reflected if Elders should win to the Governorship by significantly fewer votes on the second question than votes to retain Newsom on the first ballot, theoretically quite possible) with the inbuilt advantages for the incumbent where he was in this case effectively able to draw a sharp contrast with a prospective replacement who many see as being less in step with mainstream opinion in the Golden State.

Buoyed by a stable vote share in the Halifax Region, Cape Breton and the Southern Shore, Ian Rankin’s Liberal government is expected to retain power after today’s vote, despite losing support elsewhere in a race that has tightened in the past several weeks.

In particular, the ridings of Lunenburg and Lunenburg West may end up being the crucial tipping point ridings for the Liberals. These bell weather ridings have backed the plurality winner in the last 5 elections.

The Progressive Conservatives are expected to pick up 5 seats, 3 in the Fundy Region, 1 in Central Nova and one in the suburban Halifax area. They are also expected to retain the 2 seats won in byelections since the last election, one each in Fundy and suburban Halifax. It is expected that their vote share will moderately decline in Cape Breton, but with only the loss of one seat where the incumbent left their caucus. The Halifax region will see a relatively stable PC vote share with all incumbents expected to be returned.

The NDP will preserve their vote share, largely concentrated in the central Halifax/Dartmouth area in addition to one seat in Cape Breton. The fact that the NDP did not significantly expand their support in the Halifax region will be one of the main factors in the Liberals retaining a plurality.

Barring any power shift in by-elections (a recent case in point being nearby Prince Edward Island where the minority PC government picked up a seat to achieve majority status), it is anticipated that Rankin will retain power with possible NDP support and the likely prospect of a return to the polls in the next couple of years.

Overall the result is expected to be

Liberal 38.55% 27 Seats

PC 36.95% 23 Seats

NDP 21.26% 5 Seats

Green 2.35%

Other 0.89% (including the Atlantica Party and Independents)