Despite languishing poll numbers and concerns about very low turnout, the Conservatives are expected to retain Southend West in the February 3rd by-election.

The previous M.P., Sir David Amess, was killed in a terrorist incident during a constituency meeting in October, 2021.

The main opposition political parties, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Green and Reform UK, did not field candidates in alignment with the precedent set in 2016 at the Batley and Spen by-election held after the murder of Labour M.P. Jo Cox earlier that year.

Despite anticipated low turnout, the lack of mainstream parties on the ballot favours the Conservative candidate, probably around the 50% mark. There would be a <1% chance of an upset, from either the UKIP, far-right independent Jayda Fransen or the English Democrat candidates, in that respective order.