It is down to the wire in the elections in Canada’s smallest province and the Green Party has a solid chance of forming the next government.
The overall prediction takes into account the last poll showing the PCs closing the gap – coupled with a strong showing in eastern King’s County I predict a tie in seats and popular vote between them and the Greens. The Liberals, with the remainder of seats, could potentially boost the Green Party led by the popular Peter Bevan-Barker, into power.
I believe this would be the first instance of the Green Party winning power in the Western Hemisphere.
That said, the caveat is that 10 out of 27 total seats are very marginal, most of those with Green wins, this the range of plausible scenarios includes a small majority of either the Greens or the PCs. Since many of the races are localized, I will not pretend to be familiar with the local nuances of personality and politics on the island. This model is polls-based, and the smallest variance in competitive ridings could make a considerable difference in terms of the outcome.
That said, here is my prediction:
Green 34.8 % and 12 seats
PC 34.0% and 12 seats
Lib 27.5% and 3 seats
NDP 3.65% and 0 seats
I predict incumbent Premier Wade McLaughlin will loose his Charlottetown-area seat of Stanhope-Marshfield to the Greens, but the Liberals are likely to hang onto Evangeline-Miscouche, Tignish-Palmer Road and, less certain, Alberton-Bloomfield.
The PCs will be strong in the eastern King County area, with solid wins in:
Souris-Elmira, Georgetown-Pownal, Belfast-Murray River, Mermaid-Stratford, Stratford-Keppoch and Morell-Donagh. They are projected to have a narrow edge over the Greens in Montague-Kilmuir.
They are also slated to win Rustico-Emerald, Borden-Kinkora and Kensington-Malpeque, as well as the Charlottetown-area riding of Brackley-Hunter River.
Out in western Prince County they might edge out the Liberals in O’Leary-Inverness.
The Greens have consistently polled strong in both Charlottetown and Summerside, and are projected to sweep these areas. In addition, the Greens are projected to pull out tight wins in Cornwall-Meadowbank and New Haven-Rocky point in eastern P.E.I. and Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke in western P.E.I.
Both the Summerside ridings of Wilmot and South Drive are projected to go Green, with perhaps not as wide as a margin as what some polls might indicate.
The Charlottetown ridings of Belvedere, Victoria Park and West Royalty are believed to be more solidly Green than Winsloe and Brighton.
Hillsborough Park, after the tragic death of Green candidate Josh Underhay in a canoeing accident, will have a postponed by-election which will likely see a Green MLA from that riding as well.
Thus, election night may see the Greens with 11 actual wins, with the Hillsborough Park election potentially tying the PCs.
The Liberals may opt not to prop up a Green minority but given their competition for many of the same left-leaning voters and the excitement surrounding the Green breakthrough, they may find it more costly to not support the Greens.
As tragic as the circumstances were in causing the Hillsborough Park by-election postponement, a win there putting them over the top in the next several weeks may not seem like a long time, considering that Greens on this side of the Atlantic have had to wait decades before having any kind of breakthrough such as what we are expecting to see today.
Historic indeed.
