A quick synopsis of the race:

After nearly 6 years in power, the Premier Heather Stefanson’s Manitoba PCs are running behind Wab Kinew’s NDP, but only in the single digits in most polls.  This suggests that the core PC vote remains essentially intact and any NDP opposition lead would not be insurmountable for the PCs in the next election.

The former Premier, Brian Pallister, represented Fort Whyte in the Winnipeg area and vacated the seat shortly after announcing his resignation as Premier last summer.

Fort Whyte was created out of 3 southwest Winnipeg ridings in time for the 1999 provincial election and is considered a safe PC riding, with the party holding the seat for the entirety of its existence to date.  It is a relatively well-off riding with nearly half the population holding university degrees, and an above average household income.  It also boasts a large and diverse immigrant population. 

The Manitoba Liberals generally perform better in this riding than in the province as a whole, in the last election almost outplacing the NDP for second place.  However, the PC margin of victory has seldom dipped below 20%, and each election they have successfully kept their overall share of the vote above 50%.

The Liberals have made a serious attempt to win the riding in recruiting a star candidate, former Blue Bomber and Grey Cup champion Willard Reeves (who also played in the National Football League). 

The PCs have as their own candidate another former Blue Bomber, Ibrahim “Obby” Kahn, now a local restauranteur.  The NDP have nominated Trudy Schroeder, former Executive Director of the Winnipeg Symphony Orchestra, with the Greens’ Nicolas Geddert and a staunchly anti-pandemic mandate independent, Patrick Allard, the last two of whom are seen as unlikely to carry the riding.

Both the Liberals and PC candidacies has encountered some level of controversy – with the Liberals being asked by the Blue Bombers to stop selling merchandise with a “W” logo, while representing the first letter of the candidate’s name also seen as bearing a resemblance to the club’s logo.  With Mr. Kahn the Liberals questioned $500,000 awarded to Mr. Kahn’s Good Local online marketplace venture as part of a $1.5 million grant aimed at promoting shop local efforts, in noting that other businesses did not get any grant money.  The PC Government responded that this was just one of several financial programs aimed at helping small businesses during the recent pandemic.

The main issues in the election are reportedly the pandemic response, health care, housing and social services. 

While the NDP may hold an overall polling lead in the Winnipeg area, and Schroeder is in part urging voters to back her candidacy as supporting the party most likely to replace the PC government, the Liberals undoubtedly have a high-profile candidate and historically stronger support levels in the area that makes them significant factors in the overall vote. 

It will likely come down to the two former Blue Bombers making a play for the riding, with the historical voting trend and the still significant province-wide levels of support for the government making it more unlikely that the PCs lose in today’s vote, and with Mr. Kahn taking a seat in the provincial legislature alongside another blue team.  If it does go the other way, however, it could portend a larger defeat for the government in the next general election than what provincial polling currently suggests.

First order of business – “la biche” refers to “elk” in French, as in “Lake of the Elk”.

Today’s by-election was precipitated by the resignation of the previous MLA, Laila Goodridge, who successfully contested the federal riding of Fort McMurray – Cold Lake for the Conservative Party in last year’s election.

Despite rising oil prices and an end to a significant number of pandemic measures, Premier Jason Kenney remains unpopular, not only trailing the NDP by double digits in most polls province wide for more than the past year, but also languishes in support amongst the rank and file of his United Conservative Party.  Two MLAs were ejected last year from caucus due to criticism on their part of Kenney’s COVID-19 response.  On April 9^th, Premier Kenney is to face a party leadership review in Red Deer.  Most observes believe that less than 70% could potentially spell trouble for the Premier’s continued leadership, while less than 50% would automatically end his leadership of the party.

This makes the vote in Fort McMurray – Lac La Biche all the more interesting, since his one-time and now current political rival Brian Jean has been selected to carry the UCP banner, and has openly called for Kenney to step aside.  While both served in the Conservative caucus of Stephen Harper in Ottawa, they have been rivals since at least the formation of the UCP back in 2017.  Kenney was previously the Alberta PC leader, and Jean the leader of the more populist, rural-base Wildrose Political Association.  The split of the right-of-center vote contributed to an unprecedented NDP victory in the previous 2015 election, ending 44 years of PC governments, and a merger was seen as the best way forward to end any prospect of an NDP dynasty. 

Both men have contrasting styles reflective of the parties they previously led prior to the merger.  Premier Kenney is seen as having a more business-friendly style crafted for an urban electorate, and was previously credited as federal Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism for helping forge critical inroads in the Greater Toronto Area for the Conservatives to help solidify their 2011 majority win.  Jean’s style is seen as more rural-based and populist, although both have been able to convey messages that speak to a wider electorate at large.

The resulting 2017 leadership campaign of the then newly minted UCP was controversial as it was acrimonious. While Kenney emerged victorious, accusations of duplicity in allegedly supporting a third candidate who was in turn accused of running solely to undermine Jean, (not legitimately contending the leadership in his own right) caused reverberations right down to the grass roots level of the party.  Some believe this contributed to Kenney never truly commanding the loyalty and respect of the entire UCP, despite his 2019 win. Jean, citing personal reasons including the destruction of his home in the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, did not remain in caucus long after Kenney’s election as leader and left prior to the 2019 election.  When commodity prices tumbled and the pandemic materialized, Kenney’s popularity took a considerable hit, with no poll after the middle of 2021 showing a UCP lead, and opposition to his leadership becoming more open within his party.

Goodridge’s election as MP last fall provided Jean with an opening to run as MLA and increase his presence as he openly calls for Kenney’s ouster as leader.  While intraparty leadership feuds in Canada have often spilled out into the open, this instance is more unusual in that Kenney had pledged to sign the nomination papers of whomever won the UCP nomination in the riding regardless of loyalty to his leadership. Ultimately he ended up allowing the candidacy of not only someone openly hostile to his leadership, but someone who in the eyes of party members might make Kenney’s replacement more politically palatable as a key replacement prospect.  A federal equivalent might be comparable to an instance of Joe Clark allowing an openly hostile Brian Mulroney to contest Joliette back in 1981, (Mulroney declined to openly call for Clark’s resignation and did not run for parliament prior to his election as leader in 1983) or another fabled feud such as Chretien-Martin; Turner-Chretien or Diefenbaker-Camp.  It does stretch the imagination to see where an incumbent party leader wouldn’t make a more direct attempt to protect themselves against a significant rival.

In any event, few observers expect to see the UCP lose Fort McMurray – Lac La Biche today, which has elected right-of-center candidates since 1971 (the area as constituted in several different constituencies).  Interestingly the riding did return Liberal MLAs during a significant part of the previous 36-year Social Credit dynasty (prior to the PC dynasty), as one of the few parts of the province not to elect an MLA on the government side. 

NDP candidate Ariana Mancini is considered to be the main rival in the unlikely event of an upset; an even more unlikely chance would be Wildrose Independence leader Paul Hinman, also contesting the riding.  The Alberta and Liberal parties are also both fielding candidates as well as the Alberta Independence, Alberta Advantage parties in addition to one independent.

Note: Article previously mentioned that Social Credit dynasty was 31 years … 1971 – 1935 = 36 years.

Strengthened by a healthy national polling lead average, Labour is expected to hang onto the Birmingham Erdington seat held by their party since the riding’s recreation in 1974, and comparable area since 1945. 

The by-election was precipitated by the death of Jack Dromey, M.P. since 2010, of natural causes.  The seat was previously held by Labour M.P.s Sion Simon (2001 – 10); Robin Corbett (1983 – 2001) and Julius Silverman (1945 – 55 and 1974 – 83; representing the comparable area of Birmingham Aston in the interlude between 1955 – 74).

Councillor Robert Alden is contesting for the Conservatives, teacher Lee Dargue is contesting for the Liberal Democrats.  Both the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates have previously represented their respective parties, with Councillor Alden representing the Conservatives in the four previous elections, and Mr. Dargue having contested Birmingham Ladywood for the LDs in the last two general elections.

Birmingham Councillor Paulette Hamilton is the standard bearer for Labour, while it is true that the candidate has made previous comments widely perceived to be controversial, (even to the extent that another Birmingham M.P., Conservative Gary Sambrook from Birmingham Northfield, has called for Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer to suspend her if she is elected), underlying political dynamics make her the clear favorite in today’s vote.  The comments she reportedly made in 2015 pertained to both two sitting Birmingham Labour M.P.s not looking after ‘the needs of the community’ as well as musing about not getting ‘what we really deserve in this country using the votes … but I don’t know if we are a strong enough to get what we want to get if we have an uprising.  I think we will be quashed in such a way we could lose a generation of our young people.  So I am very torn.”  Starmer though has appeared alongside Councillor Hamilton during the campaign and it appears unlikely that the controversy would either result in Labour losing the constituency or Hamilton being suspended if elected.