A quick synopsis of the race:
After nearly 6 years in power, the Premier Heather Stefanson’s Manitoba PCs are running behind Wab Kinew’s NDP, but only in the single digits in most polls. This suggests that the core PC vote remains essentially intact and any NDP opposition lead would not be insurmountable for the PCs in the next election.
The former Premier, Brian Pallister, represented Fort Whyte in the Winnipeg area and vacated the seat shortly after announcing his resignation as Premier last summer.
Fort Whyte was created out of 3 southwest Winnipeg ridings in time for the 1999 provincial election and is considered a safe PC riding, with the party holding the seat for the entirety of its existence to date. It is a relatively well-off riding with nearly half the population holding university degrees, and an above average household income. It also boasts a large and diverse immigrant population.
The Manitoba Liberals generally perform better in this riding than in the province as a whole, in the last election almost outplacing the NDP for second place. However, the PC margin of victory has seldom dipped below 20%, and each election they have successfully kept their overall share of the vote above 50%.
The Liberals have made a serious attempt to win the riding in recruiting a star candidate, former Blue Bomber and Grey Cup champion Willard Reeves (who also played in the National Football League).
The PCs have as their own candidate another former Blue Bomber, Ibrahim “Obby” Kahn, now a local restauranteur. The NDP have nominated Trudy Schroeder, former Executive Director of the Winnipeg Symphony Orchestra, with the Greens’ Nicolas Geddert and a staunchly anti-pandemic mandate independent, Patrick Allard, the last two of whom are seen as unlikely to carry the riding.
Both the Liberals and PC candidacies has encountered some level of controversy – with the Liberals being asked by the Blue Bombers to stop selling merchandise with a “W” logo, while representing the first letter of the candidate’s name also seen as bearing a resemblance to the club’s logo. With Mr. Kahn the Liberals questioned $500,000 awarded to Mr. Kahn’s Good Local online marketplace venture as part of a $1.5 million grant aimed at promoting shop local efforts, in noting that other businesses did not get any grant money. The PC Government responded that this was just one of several financial programs aimed at helping small businesses during the recent pandemic.
The main issues in the election are reportedly the pandemic response, health care, housing and social services.
While the NDP may hold an overall polling lead in the Winnipeg area, and Schroeder is in part urging voters to back her candidacy as supporting the party most likely to replace the PC government, the Liberals undoubtedly have a high-profile candidate and historically stronger support levels in the area that makes them significant factors in the overall vote.
It will likely come down to the two former Blue Bombers making a play for the riding, with the historical voting trend and the still significant province-wide levels of support for the government making it more unlikely that the PCs lose in today’s vote, and with Mr. Kahn taking a seat in the provincial legislature alongside another blue team. If it does go the other way, however, it could portend a larger defeat for the government in the next general election than what provincial polling currently suggests.