This by-election was prompted by the resignation of long-time NDP M.L.A. Buckley Belanger last August, who ran unsuccessfully for the federal Liberals in the corresponding federal riding of Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River in last year’s election.

The NDP candidate running to replace Belanger is former NDP M.P. Georgina Jolibois, who represented the same seat Belanger contested between 2015 – 19. Jolibois carried the federal riding by 82 votes in 2015 over the Liberal, but ended up losing to Conservative Gary Vidal in 2019 by a wide margin, the same candidate who defeated Belanger last fall.

The riding’s roots stretch back to the nearly the beginning of the Saskatchewan Legislative Assembly, and has only been represented by either Liberal or CCF/NDP representatives throughout it’s 114 years of representation. Belanger himself was first elected as a Liberal in 1995 until joining the then-NDP government in 1998. Throughout his tenure he carried the riding by wide margins, with the right-leaning Saskatchewan Party not coming close to carrying the riding despite a number of province-wide sweeps. The last closely contested election was in 1995 when Belanger beat NDP incumbent Fred Thompson. Thompson for his part carried the riding by wide margins even during the two PC wins in the 1980s. Prior to that point, the 1971 general and 1972 by-elections were the last time the riding was closely contested, with Liberal incumbent Allan Ray Guy winning by 12 votes in the general, having that win over turned with a judicial recount and hanging on by 30 votes in the resulting by-election next year.

The Saskatchewan Party government headed by Scott Moe is heading into the middle of it’s current term, with a 10 point lead in province-wide opinion polls, but down from a nearly 30 point spread at the last general. Even with a 30 point deficit, NDP support has continued to remain sufficiently strong in a number of urban ridings as well as the two far-northern ridings for this riding to likely stay in the NDP column, and with a 10 point deficit province-wide, it is likely that NDP candidate Jolibois will win by a fairly wide margin in today’s election contest.

Despite languishing poll numbers and concerns about very low turnout, the Conservatives are expected to retain Southend West in the February 3rd by-election.

The previous M.P., Sir David Amess, was killed in a terrorist incident during a constituency meeting in October, 2021.

The main opposition political parties, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Green and Reform UK, did not field candidates in alignment with the precedent set in 2016 at the Batley and Spen by-election held after the murder of Labour M.P. Jo Cox earlier that year.

Despite anticipated low turnout, the lack of mainstream parties on the ballot favours the Conservative candidate, probably around the 50% mark. There would be a <1% chance of an upset, from either the UKIP, far-right independent Jayda Fransen or the English Democrat candidates, in that respective order.