Probably lower turnout … perhaps less participation older pro-Biden demographic but still basically 2 to 1 margin of victory for Biden in each state … Arizona might be closest margin with stronger showing with Sanders amongst Hispanic population … Illinois and Florida stronger Biden

Vice-President Joe Biden is set to expand his lead a week after Super Tuesday with strong wins in the three ‘M’ states – Mississippi, Missouri and perhaps most notably, Michigan.

It will be more competitive in Idaho, North Dakota and Washington, where Sanders might earn 40% plus of the vote. Momentum in the race towards Biden effectively flips these states away from Sanders, with Washington being the one state Sanders may still carry (narrowly).

At this point projecting a complete Biden sweep including Democrats abroad.

Also California 25th Congressional District holds jungle primary today for former U.S. Representative Katie Hill (D). It is anticipated that none of the candidates will receive 50% forcing a May 12th runoff … likely to be between Steve Knight (R) and Christy Smith (D).

The Super Tuesday Primary involving 14 states plus American Samoa will be one for the history books on the Democratic side as the contest narrows down to a fight between the progressive (Sanders) and moderate (Biden) wings after a largely unprecedented dropout of three candidates – Steyer, Klobuchar and Buttigieg since Saturday’s South Carolina primary and the endorsement of Biden from the latter two mentioned.

This means both that there are few to none opinion polls extant that will reflect these developments … it also means that a good portion of votes will not end up going to active contenders given the number of early votes prior to these developments … most states in question lack any provision to withdraw an early vote for someone no longer in the running. If the Democratic convention in July becomes contested, this will likely be a contributing factor.

For the final four active campaigns, here are their prospects as I see them …

Michael Bloomberg … his strategy was to sit the early primaries out and focus on a mass advertising campaign for Super Tuesday. This strategy will likely have limited success given Biden’s strong South Carolina win and the latter’s endorsements by Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Some endorsements, such as Rep. Clyburn’s in South Carolina matter and these new developments create the momentum of Biden being the ‘stop Bernie’ candidate. This effectively puts a ceiling on Bloomberg’s support, not to mention two debate performances on his part that did little to generate additional support. As Andrew Yang pointed out, Bloomberg’s tactical error was to sit out the race in South Carolina, where he missed the ‘stop Bernie’ train. At this point his remaining in the race effectively gives Texas, a winnable state for Biden, to Bernie, if not the nomination overall.

Senator Warren appears to be stuck in the high single digits or a few points higher and, similar to Bloomberg paring Biden back, she might effectively do the same to Bernie, perhaps putting Virginia in Biden’s camp. At this point it appears doubtful that she will win her home state of Massachusetts, effectively numbering the days of her campaign. If she drops out before Bloomberg, that would probably help Bernie more.

Senator Sanders is expected to have a decent night, winning most of the states outside of the South, even if he doesn’t match his level of support 4 years ago. His levels of support in the South are expected to remain comparable to where they were 4 years previous, which will net him Texas and run a strong second everywhere else in the region except Alabama. Outside the South while he is expected to sweep every state, his support levels will likely be lower due to Warren and the countless early votes for candidates who have since dropped out. While I do not try to break out the specific delegate count, it is likely that after tonight, thanks to California and Texas, that he will have a strong, but not insurmountable lead of around 200 delegates.

Which brings us to Biden, who in the last 72 hours has had more good fortune compacted in those 3 days than any other Presidential contender I can remember. With clear momentum from Buttigieg and Klobuchar, and underlying strength in the African American electorate, it is likely that he will outperform all current opinion polls, even if not all of Klobuchar’s and Buttigieg’s supporters follow their lead. Given however the strength of Sanders in the Latin American population and those states outside the South, plus Bloomberg still remaining in the race, the best potential areas for Biden remain in the South.

It may be too early in the end to make final delegate predictions, however the race between Biden and Bernie may cone down to who drops out first – Warren or Bloomberg. On one hand there has been some palpable animosity between Warren and Sanders, but Warren has a much harder case to make for winnability if she can’t carry her home state of Massachusetts. On the other hand, Bloomberg may not get the results he wants tonight, but he certainly has no lack of resources to help him keep going.