Canadian Election – Carney Liberals expected to get small majority or strong minority

PartySeatsPopular Vote
Liberal17641.05%
Conservative13239.63%
New Democratic108.90%
Bloc Quebecois236.10%
Green21.79%
Other02.51%

Despite a near tie in the popular vote, Liberals expected to gain seats and form either a small majority or strong minority government, aided by a fairly efficient vote in Eastern Canada and gains in Quebec and British Columbia. The Conservatives, despite improving on their vote share, have a more concentrated vote in Western Canada, and less seats as a result. The New Democratic Party stands to lose official party status (12 seats minimum), as the vote coalesces around the two major parties. The Bloc is expected to see a reduction in seat count. Turnout is expected to be higher, closer to 70%, which would be one of the largest turnouts since the late 1980s.