2023/24 Pending Lineup of Elections
CANADA – expected in 2024 … current Liberal minority … if you exclude the Mackenzie King parliaments, the longest duration of a minority government was just short of 2 years, 7 months (2006-08) … the average life of a minority government is closer to 1 year 5 months. Since the last election was in 2019, that makes an election in 2024 very likely
BRITISH COLUMBIA – likely Fall of 2024, current NDP Majority
NEW BRUNSWICK – mid-2024, current PC Majority
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES – November 14, 2023 (non-partisan, not predicted)
SASKATCHEWAN – set for October, 2024
Canada – (Fall 2019)
*** Predicted over a year prior to election call ***
Strong Liberal Minority –
Liberals lose moderate amount of ground in Maritimes, Toronto, Alberta and British Columbia, make modest gains in Quebec
NDP loses ground in Quebec but slight gains in Maritimes, larger gains in Toronto, British Columbia
Conservatives – modest gains in Maritimes, no significant change in Quebec, slight gains in Ontario due to several L-NDP vote splits, slight gains in Alberta, no net change in British Columbia
*** Updated Prediction 9/16/2019 ***
The Liberals and Conservatives essentially tied in the popular vote, however the Liberal vote is more efficient as could lead to a strong minority government or a small majority.
The NDP support is at least somewhat dented by a resurgent Green Party, with some polls showing Green tied with NDP Orange.
The Maritimes will see some Conservative gains in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, but on the whole will send a majority of Liberals back to Ottawa.
Quebec sees the Liberals out in front, although not overwhelmingly so, sufficient enough for a strong plurality of seats. The Conservatives and Bloc appear to have hit ceilings of around 20 – 25%, while the NDP has been in freefall, with nearly all of their currently held seats expected to flip to one of the 3 parties above.
Ontario will see Liberal seats concentrated within Toronto and the 905 (perhaps by the tightest of margins – and thus retaining power) … depending on the NDP vote the Liberals may make gains in the Hamilton area … Conservatives to dominate rural areas and some urban seats, such as Niagara Falls, Cambridge, Thornhill, and Oshawa.
Conservatives might pick up a few seats between Winnipeg and urban Saskatchewan, could shut the Liberals out in Alberta and can profit from a 3 way left-of-center vote split – Liberal/NDP/Green in British Columbia and pick up some lower mainland seats. The Greens might gain several seats on Vancouver Island.
At this point probably Liberals around 35% and 160 seats; Conservatives tied at 35% of the vote and 140 seats; the NDP 16% and less than 20 seats; the Bloc perhaps flirting once again with official party status (around 12 seats) and no more than 25% of the Quebec vote (4-5% nationally) while the Greens might get 10% of the national vote and 3-4 seats. The People’s Party of Canada might get a few percentage points in popular vote and see leader Maxime Bernier returned in Beauce, although in a more polarized race the PPC might lose to the Conservatives as the primary counter point to the Trudeau government.
Few first term majority governments in Canada go on to lose power outright after that first mandate … Richard Bennett’s Conservatives in 1935 (height of the Great Depression) was one exception, although Pierre Trudeau barely retained power in 1972 after a landslide win in 1968. This underlying dynamic is perhaps just as much a factor in supporting a return to power for the Liberals as any other.