The last three times the NDP won an initial mandate in Saskatchewan, 1944, 1971 and 1991, there was alot of CCF/NDP representation in the rural areas. This year, it appears that Carla Beck’s NDP will likely form government based almost completely on urban and far north representation. The map will still have alot of Saskatchewan Party green, representing rural areas in the southern half of the province.

At the outset of the campaign it was expected that the NDP would pick up urban support, especially in light of several by-election gains in August of 2023, but that the Saskatchewan Party was sufficiently ahead to hold onto power, perhaps easily. Successive polls have discernably put the NDP out in front, but unlike those prior elections where the NDP won an initial mandate, they are running fairly close with the incumbent Saskatchewan Party and are still likely under 50% of the popular vote. Tommy Douglas, Allan Blakeney and Roy Romanov all won power for their first mandate with over 50% of the vote and were at least 10 points ahead of any other party.

Perhaps an apt metaphor for the election Thanks to Ruvim Kerimov, Unsplash

Thus any notion of an rural/urban divide would need to consider the fact that unlike other first time NDP wins, this is a fairly close race which is at least partly driving the urban/rural divide. At the same time, however, many of the ridings aren’t even close, with approximately 20 seats, all Saskatchewan Party rural seats, being decided by margins of over 15%, and another 20 seats, nearly all Saskatoon/Regina urban seats, being won by the NDP by at least the same 15% margin.

Only 9 seats are projected to be within 5%, 2 of them Saskatchewan Party rural seats and 7 NDP urban seats, including Regina – Wascana Plains and several eastern Saskatoon ridings. If the polling is off even slightly, it is certainly possible that incumbent Premier Scott Moe could be returned with a bare majority. Only a third of those 9 seats would in fact need to flip, based on my projections, for the Saskatchewan Party to be returned to power with a majority.

Projections

SeatsPopular Vote
New Democratic Party3347.5%
Saskatchewan Party2845.25%
Saskatchewan United02.75%
Buffalo Party02%
Green Party01.75%
Other (incl. PC)00.75%
Sask 2024 Final ADownload