Utah 2nd Congressional District consists of most of the rural (staunch Republican) western park of the state, also encompasses parts of urban Salt Lake City (including some of the most Democrat-leaning precincts in the state).
The office became vacant after the previous GOP Congressman, Chris Stewart, resigned due to his wife’s health issues.
Celeste Maloy, Stewart’s legal counsel, is the Republican nominee. Stewart himself endorsed Maloy, although her win was considered somewhat of an upset given that several of her rivals had high name recognition, including Greg Hughes, former Speaker of the Utah House of Representatives (lost at the convention); former State Representative Becky Edwards (lost in primary, seen as fairly moderate) and Bruce Hough, prominent GOP official at the state and national levels (also lost in primary).
Maloy polled very strongly in the primary from the southern, more rural part of the district (in contrast to Edwards, winning in the Salt Lake City area and Hough, winning in the northern part of the district in Tooele County). Maloy herself is from Iron County having worked as a soil conservationist for the Department of Agriculture, as well as an attorney for Washington County before joining Stewart’s office as his chief legal counsel in D.C. and is widely seen as someone familiar with the needs of the rural part of her district.
Democratic nominee Kathleen Riebe, from Salt Lake City, is the Minority Whip in the State Senate, representing the 15th district and has held a number of different jobs ranging from truck driver to police dispatcher prior to her current career in education. She has been seen as running a vigorous campaign mirroring Democratic issues nationally such as abortion, education, the economy and democracy, among others.
The district remains overwhelming Republican, and it is unlikely to change, although the race may end up being closer, given a widely recongized Democratic tendency in recent special elections to overpreform at the polls. One poll suggests a 9 point Republican lead. Anything under a 10 point margin could be considered a victory of sorts by Democrats, given that the 2022 Congressional Republican margin was almost 26 points, and in 2020 President Donald Trump carried the district by some 17 points.
The race, probably the last major one for 2023 before the country moves into an almost certainly tumultuous 2024, offers very little in the way of portents for 2024. The Republican nominee might pull more from her strength as a well known local candidate in touch with local issues such as resource and land management in the rural areas. The Democratic nominee will likely perform well in the Salt Lake City area, running on a more national campaign, although this will likely not overcome the likely wide margins the Republicans are expected to win in the rural parts of the distrct, the way the district is currently comprised.
Overall, chances of Republican victory 75%, with a greater than 10% margin rated at 50%.
No official predictions today as this post being made after polls closed.
Republicans are expected to retain the three main contested statewide offices of Attorney General, Secretary of State and Treasurer. Despite close races in some cases, partisan breakdown remains fairly uniform, it is more a reflection of the crowded nature of some of the jungle primary candidates in October’s races.
Attorney General – Liz Murrill, R vs. Lindsey Cheek, D … October partisan breakdown R 69.3%; D 30.7%
Secretary of State – Nancy Landry, R vs. Gwen Collins-Greenup, D … October partisan breakdown R 68.3%; D 30.4%
Treasurer – John Fleming, R vs. Dustin Granger, D … October partisan breakdown R 68%; D 32%
***
October’s previous predictions of R legislative control in both chambers won’t be impacted by November run off races since the Republicans already have a majority in both houses
House of Representatives – 105 Seats total. October decided 100 races, of which Republicans won 60, 27 Democrats and runoffs 18
Senate – 39 Seats total. October decided 37 races, of which Republicans won 27, Democrats 10 and 2 runoffs
Today’s elections might be fairly limited where portents for next year are concerned since the very limited number of races, none of which are in currently identified key swing states
Current polling in regards to next year is more a snapshot in time of today’s mood, enough economic, political (and legal) variables could profoundly shift next year’s races, see Norman Ornstein perspective
How the twists and turns of the abortion debate play out politically might be one of the biggest near-term portents of this election cycle, particularly in Ohio, Virginia, possibly Pennsylvania
This year two Democratic candidates for Governor are polling strong in crimson red Republican southern states. Both are seen as moderates. Incumbent Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear however is taking some more conventionally Democratic stances on issues such as abortion, whereas Mississippi Democratic Governor candidate Brandon Presley is seen as more pro-life. Yet odds makers place Beshear’s chances ahead of Presley’s.
The longer-term portent might be, especially after losing the Governor’s mansion in Louisiana earlier this fall, is if more moderate Democrats can, with platforms more adapted to their states, make as big of an impact on cross-over voting in deep red states as some Republicans such as Larry Hogan, Charlie Baker and Chris Christie recently have managed to do as Republicans in deep blue states
For the most part taken as a whole, probably a good day for incumbency, if not a resounding endorsement
Pennsylvania Supreme Court (noteworthy, not predicting)
Election for vacant position on the state Supreme Court caused by the death of Justic Max Baer (D)
Democrats previously had a 5-2 majority on the state Supreme Court, this election will not directly change that majority
Republican Carolyn Carluccio, Judge of the Montgomery County Court of Common Pleas, will face off against Daniel McCaffery, Judge of the Superior Court of Pennsylvania
Race will prove to be pivotal for a number of key issues including the conduct and recognition of elections, especially as Pennsylvania is seen as a key swing state, in addition to other issues such as abortion and reproductive rights
Ohio Ballot Initiatives (noteworthy, no predictions)
Ohio recently rejected a constitutional amendment earlier this year that would establish a 60% threshold for adopting further constitutional amendments, widely seen as a block on any further amendment aimed at articulating reproductive rights in the state constitution
Ballot Initiative #1 – recognizes ‘an individual right to one’s own reproductive medical treatment’ and restricts state actions on abortion before the point of viability
Polling has consistently shown the Yes side ahead, but not over 60%, which is not surprising with post-Roe plebiscites on the issue – Kansas and Kentucky, arguably much redder states, both rejected measures that would have entrenched further restrictions, in this instance however this is a positive articulation rather than a vote on restrictions
This would continue an abortion rights winning streak after six ballot initiatives on the issue in other states last year
Ballot Initiative #2 – provides for recreational marijuana usage by adults, polling shows consistent support, comparable to Initiative #1
Rhode Island US Congressional District #1 – Special Election – Predicted D Hold
Vacancy caused by the resignation of Rep. David Cicilline, who took a post with the Rhode Island Foundation
The district basically comprises the eastern half of the state. While Republicans have certainly represented it over its 180-year history, the last one to do so was Ronald Machtley, from 1989 – 95, after which he resigned to run for the Governor of Rhode Island (who lost in the R Primary to Lincoln Almond, who won the general later in November 1994) The Cook Partisan Voting Index has this rated D +12
One other notable Representative was Patrick J. Kennedy, (son of U.S. Senator Edward Kennedy) who succeeded Machtley and served a total of 8 terms
This election notable in that Gabe Amo, a former aid in both the Obama and Biden Administrations, would become the first African American representative to the U.S. Congress in the state’s history
Amo was seen as a moderate and pulled out a largely unexpected win in a crowded primary field, against former State Representative Aaron Regunberg, who had the endorsements of several prominent progressives
His Republican opponent is Gerry Leonard, Jr, a retired U.S. Marine Corps Officer and operations executive
Overall Legislative Control predicted, not individual races
General Assembly – D Retain Control
Senate – D Retain Control
All 80 House (General Assembly) seats are up for election in the lower chamber as well as 40 seats in the Senate. New Jersey is unique in that 40 districts are the same for both chambers, voters will return one Senator and two Assemblymen per district
Republicans are optimistic given President Biden’s unfavorable numbers plus at least some midterm malaise for Democratic Governor Phil Murphy and the legal troubles of Senator Bob Menendez.
However, with districts identified as competitive by CN Analysis, gaining overall control of one or both chambers by Republicans after two decades of Democratic statehouse control remains beyond most projections
The Senate range for Republicans runs from 10 – 19 seats (just short of a tie on the high end); whereas the General Assembly runs 22 – 40 (which would be a tie on the high end)
Competitive districts are found both in the southern and central parts of the state, with the southern area trending more Republican, but with both GOP and Democratic seats on the defensive. In 2021 the Republicans ran better than expected with both the gubernatorial candidate and legislative races, including the unexpected defeat of then-Senate President Steve Sweeney, D
Most news reports convey the sense that Democrats are on the defensive, Republicans have taken a more controversial approach touting school gender identification policies (especially as Governor Murphy has initiated lawsuits against some school districts adopting policies towards informing parents of children’s changed gender identity), offshore wind farms
The Republican approach might rally some of that party’s base, and show some gains in what is expected to be a low turnout election, however the more ‘kitchen table’ issues within New Jersey such as affordability, property taxes might persuade more swing voters, and New Jersey is not especially a socially conservative state
Overall Legislative Control predicted, not individual races
House of Delegates – D Flip Chamber
Senate – D Retain Control
All 140 seats are up for election today, which includes 100 house of Delegates Seats and 40 Senate Seats.
The Viriginia Legislative Assembly is the oldest continuous law-making body in the Western Hemisphere, first established in 1619
Republican Governor Glen Youngkin is looking to build on his brand nationally in hoping to win both legislative chambers. He has assumed a prominent campaign role. Democratic strategists appear equally motivated to stop him and the Republicans from gaining complete control of the legislature
Both parties have pumped a considerable amount of money into legislative races, with the key swing areas being in the northern D.C. area suburbs, suburban Richmond around the middle of the state and Hampton Roads area in the south eastern corner near the coast
The Governor’s proposed 15-week abortion ban appears to be one of the most predominant, if not the main issue, in the election campaign. Some polling suggests that Virginia voters are not particularly enthused about a ban that would further restrict abortion services in the state. Post-Roe Virginia has the most liberal abortion laws in the southeastern United States, one poll suggested only 29% wanted further abortion restrictions, and 39% supported a 15-week ban. To the extent that the Republicans fail to gain control of the Senate and/or lose control of the House of Delegates, this might be attributed to the abortion question, which will likely inform how the parties address this issue next year.
Other issues include cost of living, gun control, education, housing costs and the economy at large. While Biden’s approval rating has not been particularly high in Virginia at the present time, other prominent Democratic party leaders have been active in the campaign.
Per CN Analysis, (my extrapolation of their ratings), enough seats in both chambers are in play where either party could control one or both chambers. The range for the Democrats is 45 – 54 in the House of Delegates and 20-25 in the Senate. The Republicans might have a slightly higher range with the House of Delegates at 46 -55, but more of their seats are in play, 2 to 1. The Republicans would only need to tie the Democrats in the Senate to control the chamber since the Lieutenant Governor, a Republican, would have voting rights and provide overall control. However, a tie is only on the upper end for Republicans, their overall range is 15 – 20.
Overall Legislative Control predicted, not individual races
House of Representatives – R Retain Control
Senate – R Retain Control
All 52 state Senate seats and 122 state House of Representatives seats are up for election this year
It should be noted, however, that approximately 80% of legislative candidates have no major-party opposition in the general election, and more than 50% of the current year’s winners would not have faced either a significant primary challenge or general election challenge (from the opposite party)
This practically assures a continuation of the same party controlling the legislature after the election. Several other states have similar dynamics, including Georgia, (83% uncontested state House districts in 2016; 79% uncontested same year Massachusetts and 75% uncontested same year Arkansas and South Carolina)
This trend has increased in recent years in Mississippi, rising from 63% of uncontested races in 2011 to around 85% this year, and over the same period of time lack of primary challengers rising from 45% to 57%
The DLCC (Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee) has nonetheless contributed a small amount towards legislative races in both Mississippi and Louisiana
A recent report on unopposed races attributes three factors to more unopposed candidates – gerrymandering, low legislative salaries, and challengers less likely where their party is more unpopular overall
The race for Governor has turned competitive, with Democratic candidate Brandon Presley, Mississippi Public Service Commissioner and former Mayor of Nettleton running nearly even with incumbent Governor Tate Reeves
For over a century, the Governor’s office was dominated by Democrats, from 1873 through 1991, when the Republican candidate that year, Kirk Fordice, finally breaking a 118-year Democratic lock on the office. Most of the first half of the 20th century Republican candidates didn’t even run, and races have only been competitive for the last 50 years or so. The last time a Democrat won the Governorship was Ronnie Musgrove in 1999.
Mississippi finally abolished a requirement unique in the country that a Governor candidate not only win the popular vote but also a majority of state House districts, now a runoff is required with 50% of the vote required
Politics in the state are along both partisan and racial lines, with the state’s 38% black population overwhelmingly Democratic, and the majority white population heavily favoring Republicans. To be competitive, Democrats must generally encourage high turnout amongst black voters (where they comprise 35% of the participating electorate to be viable) and obtain at least a fifth of the white vote for their candidacies to have a credible shot at winning. The 35% bar has been attained previously, but most notably in even-year elections such as when President Barack Obama or Senate candidate Mike Espy
Reeves is unpopular, both in the state at large as well as amongst core Democratic constituencies, many of whom see him as being vindictive. The welfare fund scandal involved $77 million in misused welfare funds for various projects. Governor Reeves has also been accused of being biased against the capital city of Jackson, in particular for expanding state authority in the city, vetoing legislative appropriations for various public works in the city and being inattentive to the needs of Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs). For his part, the Governor maintains his innocence (he himself has not been charged) and noted that the welfare fund scandal did not occur on his watch, but rather his predecessor when Reeves was the Lieutenant Governor.
Presley might best fit the description of an older version of a southern Democrat, identifying as pro-life, pro-Second Amendment and with a record of cutting taxes when he was mayor. He declined to make much commentary on the next Presidential election. He does embrace a populist message of cleaning up corruption, supporting more funding for HBCUs, cutting the grocery tax, and expanding Medicaid. This last issue is tied into the challenges that many rural Mississippi hospitals have in continuing to operate, with both parties offering support, Governor Reeves more directly to hospitals themselves, while Presley believes Medicaid expansion is overall most helpful.
What Presley needs to do to win
The map graphic shows where Presley needs to do well to win, where I extrapolated a uniform swing. However, the shading on the map serves as a rough guide and cannot reflect the deeper issue of turnout embedded in the numbers. It is worth noting that he did secure the endorsements of such luminaries as Bennie Thompson, US Representative from MS-2 (who did not end up endorsing the Democratic nominee in 2019) as well as actor Morgan Freeman. Ultimately, the threshold of voter participation in an off-year election might be hard to achieve, and the red state dynamics might be hard to overcome.
Incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear will barely hang on to a challenge from current state Attorney General, Daniel Cameron
Much like neighboring Tennessee, the Democrats did not have an absolute lock on the Governor’s Mansion since reconstruction, but the dominant trend for the past century has been Democratic control with occasional Republican wins, although even in more recent decades, Republicans have only held the Governor’s mansion for exactly 8 out of the last 50 years
Beshear is well regarded, even by his opponent (they apparently were former colleagues at the same law firm), and is this year’s Democratic counterpart to Viriginia Governor Glen Youngkin, the promising governor with national potential. Beshear took a high profile during several natural disasters and is widely seen as approachable and relatable, and with respectable favorability ratings.
The dynamics of Kentucky, however, are fairly red, having last voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate in 1996 (on a tight margin), however conservative the state has traditionally been, it is only more recently that this has translated into Republican strength.
The last election was fairly unique in that the incumbent Republican Governor, Matt Bevin, was particularly unpopular, especially with a controversial proposal to cut teachers’ pensions, Beshear, possibly bolstered by his surname recognition (his father was Governor from 2007-15) was able to campaign as a moderate and make significant inroads in suburbs and parts of eastern Kentucky (which have trended heavily towards the Republicans in recent election cycles)
Beshear is continuing to take a fairly conventional approach for a Democrat with jobs (making several high-profile announcements) and infrastructure, he has actually been more vocally pro-choice on abortion (the state rejected language that would explicitly remove abortion protections in the state constitution) and is credited for making Cameron moderate his position on the issue to some extent
Cameron is hoping for a more nationalized campaign, gaining the endorsement of Donald Trump early on, and campaigning on President Biden, inflation, and transgender policies in schools.
In previous election cycles in other southern states, I have reviewed voting patterns in traditional yellow-dog counties (i.e., rural, southern counties voting for Democrats during Republican landslides, such as 1984) and noted that for most Democratic campaigns, the road to victory lies in the suburbs and urban areas (see Doug Jones’ Alabama victory in 2017). Kentucky is unique in that the Beshear campaign has revitalized some of the rural Democratic vote (see 2019 map showing Trump/Beshear counties).
The deeper the blue, the greater number of Trump/Beshear voters
While widely expected, the tightening of polling reflects national trends, national campaigns, and the state’s deep red color on the presidential map. The conventional math might say with the teaching constituency as a whole (slightly?) less motivated to punish Republicans, the lack of a libertarian candidate this cycle who probably hurt Republican Bevin more and a general Republican rallying around Cameron (that eluded Bevin) that he would be the clear favorite. However, incumbency might be Beshear’s biggest asset, with strong favorables, along with a high profile and name recognition.
Marking this horse race as close, Beshear win by a nose.
