Non-sectarian parties make clear gains, SF maintains support and DUP continues decline

Sinn Fein – 28 Seats +1 from 2017

Alliance – 18 Seats +10

UUP – 16 Seats +6

SDLP – 10 Seats -2

DUP – 9 Seats -19

TUV – 4 Seats +3

Green – 2 Seats no change

People Before Profit 1 Seat, no change

Two Unionist Independents +1

Overall Totals – Republican/Nationalists 38 down 1 seat

Loyalist/Unionist – 31 … down 8 seats

Non-Sectarian – 21 … up 9 seats

• Northern Ireland out of Canada, the UK and the US is one of the more complicated and layered jurisdictions when it comes to voting … as far as I’m concerned only historical Louisiana and current Newfoundland voting patterns show similar levels of complexity or unpredictability
• Brexit has complicated the political calculus for Northern Ireland with the trilemma of no land or sea borders between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and the United Kingdom respectively as well as no UK participation in the European Single Market/European Union Customs Union; Northern Ireland did not vote for Brexit, predominant opposition came from Catholic and non-sectarian sections of the electorate … the soft border between Northern Ireland the and Republic of Ireland was a cornerstone of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 which is widely seen as having turned the page on the sectarian Troubles which afflicted the area in the three decades prior
• The Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement provides for a sea border arrangement avoiding a hard land border on Ireland and allowing for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK customs union and internal market
• The Northern Ireland Assembly has the power after December 31, 2024 to either continue to terminate the arrangement
• Despite the backdrop of Brexit considerations, a number of non-sectarian issues such as affordability and health care have been the mainstay of the Sinn Fein campaign, with leader Michelle O’Neill likely to emerge as the largest party in the Assembly.  (I recall the PQ in Quebec in 1976 taking a similar tactic – the campaign was on good governance, not separatism, although to be clear the PQ never had any formal relationship with the FLQ, whereas SF has been commonly associated as being the political arm of the IRA). Sinn Fein has moved in a significantly different direction since unionists and SDLP supporters voted tactically to defeat then leader Gerry Adams in Belfast West in the 1992 UK election
• Northern Ireland leadership in a current state of suspension … strong likelihood that if O’Neil’s party does take the largest seats that unionists will not nominate a deputy leader per the terms of the Good Friday agreement, which may lead to direct rule from Westminster
• The DUP after a leadership crisis in the past several years will likely shrink significantly, but with the UUP and TUV picking up most of the slack
• The non-sectarian Alliance Party also slated to pick up support … overall non-sectarians will gain at the expense of unionists, possibly republicans … if they emerge as the second largest party per the terms of the party sharing agreement they could not nominate a deputy minister since they are ‘other’ as opposed to Unionist or Nationalist
• The overall picture is one of further instability in Stormont and uncertainty with respect to Northern Ireland’s future … if the unionists end up blocking O’Neill from taking office through refusal to nominate a deputy first minister, this may further intensify the momentum towards a border poll and possible reunification … paradoxically if O’Neill does become first minister and Northern Ireland continues to government under a more or less state of devolution, that would likely disincentivize any significant push towards a border poll/unification
• In recent years the DUP has steered more or less a course between the more moderate UUP and the more hardline TUV … their collapse may lead to a more divided unionist block with hardliners isolated, and the electorate overall ready to look more for compromise than a return to the troubles
• *** Predictions on basis of party seat won by constituency, not an individual candidate.  Since interim replacements are usually based on co-options as opposed to by-elections, only by-election predictions are made