First order of business – “la biche” refers to “elk” in French, as in “Lake of the Elk”.

Today’s by-election was precipitated by the resignation of the previous MLA, Laila Goodridge, who successfully contested the federal riding of Fort McMurray – Cold Lake for the Conservative Party in last year’s election.

Despite rising oil prices and an end to a significant number of pandemic measures, Premier Jason Kenney remains unpopular, not only trailing the NDP by double digits in most polls province wide for more than the past year, but also languishes in support amongst the rank and file of his United Conservative Party.  Two MLAs were ejected last year from caucus due to criticism on their part of Kenney’s COVID-19 response.  On April 9^th, Premier Kenney is to face a party leadership review in Red Deer.  Most observes believe that less than 70% could potentially spell trouble for the Premier’s continued leadership, while less than 50% would automatically end his leadership of the party.

This makes the vote in Fort McMurray – Lac La Biche all the more interesting, since his one-time and now current political rival Brian Jean has been selected to carry the UCP banner, and has openly called for Kenney to step aside.  While both served in the Conservative caucus of Stephen Harper in Ottawa, they have been rivals since at least the formation of the UCP back in 2017.  Kenney was previously the Alberta PC leader, and Jean the leader of the more populist, rural-base Wildrose Political Association.  The split of the right-of-center vote contributed to an unprecedented NDP victory in the previous 2015 election, ending 44 years of PC governments, and a merger was seen as the best way forward to end any prospect of an NDP dynasty. 

Both men have contrasting styles reflective of the parties they previously led prior to the merger.  Premier Kenney is seen as having a more business-friendly style crafted for an urban electorate, and was previously credited as federal Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism for helping forge critical inroads in the Greater Toronto Area for the Conservatives to help solidify their 2011 majority win.  Jean’s style is seen as more rural-based and populist, although both have been able to convey messages that speak to a wider electorate at large.

The resulting 2017 leadership campaign of the then newly minted UCP was controversial as it was acrimonious. While Kenney emerged victorious, accusations of duplicity in allegedly supporting a third candidate who was in turn accused of running solely to undermine Jean, (not legitimately contending the leadership in his own right) caused reverberations right down to the grass roots level of the party.  Some believe this contributed to Kenney never truly commanding the loyalty and respect of the entire UCP, despite his 2019 win. Jean, citing personal reasons including the destruction of his home in the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, did not remain in caucus long after Kenney’s election as leader and left prior to the 2019 election.  When commodity prices tumbled and the pandemic materialized, Kenney’s popularity took a considerable hit, with no poll after the middle of 2021 showing a UCP lead, and opposition to his leadership becoming more open within his party.

Goodridge’s election as MP last fall provided Jean with an opening to run as MLA and increase his presence as he openly calls for Kenney’s ouster as leader.  While intraparty leadership feuds in Canada have often spilled out into the open, this instance is more unusual in that Kenney had pledged to sign the nomination papers of whomever won the UCP nomination in the riding regardless of loyalty to his leadership. Ultimately he ended up allowing the candidacy of not only someone openly hostile to his leadership, but someone who in the eyes of party members might make Kenney’s replacement more politically palatable as a key replacement prospect.  A federal equivalent might be comparable to an instance of Joe Clark allowing an openly hostile Brian Mulroney to contest Joliette back in 1981, (Mulroney declined to openly call for Clark’s resignation and did not run for parliament prior to his election as leader in 1983) or another fabled feud such as Chretien-Martin; Turner-Chretien or Diefenbaker-Camp.  It does stretch the imagination to see where an incumbent party leader wouldn’t make a more direct attempt to protect themselves against a significant rival.

In any event, few observers expect to see the UCP lose Fort McMurray – Lac La Biche today, which has elected right-of-center candidates since 1971 (the area as constituted in several different constituencies).  Interestingly the riding did return Liberal MLAs during a significant part of the previous 36-year Social Credit dynasty (prior to the PC dynasty), as one of the few parts of the province not to elect an MLA on the government side. 

NDP candidate Ariana Mancini is considered to be the main rival in the unlikely event of an upset; an even more unlikely chance would be Wildrose Independence leader Paul Hinman, also contesting the riding.  The Alberta and Liberal parties are also both fielding candidates as well as the Alberta Independence, Alberta Advantage parties in addition to one independent.

Note: Article previously mentioned that Social Credit dynasty was 31 years … 1971 – 1935 = 36 years.