Strengthened by a healthy national polling lead average, Labour is expected to hang onto the Birmingham Erdington seat held by their party since the riding’s recreation in 1974, and comparable area since 1945.
The by-election was precipitated by the death of Jack Dromey, M.P. since 2010, of natural causes. The seat was previously held by Labour M.P.s Sion Simon (2001 – 10); Robin Corbett (1983 – 2001) and Julius Silverman (1945 – 55 and 1974 – 83; representing the comparable area of Birmingham Aston in the interlude between 1955 – 74).
Councillor Robert Alden is contesting for the Conservatives, teacher Lee Dargue is contesting for the Liberal Democrats. Both the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates have previously represented their respective parties, with Councillor Alden representing the Conservatives in the four previous elections, and Mr. Dargue having contested Birmingham Ladywood for the LDs in the last two general elections.
Birmingham Councillor Paulette Hamilton is the standard bearer for Labour, while it is true that the candidate has made previous comments widely perceived to be controversial, (even to the extent that another Birmingham M.P., Conservative Gary Sambrook from Birmingham Northfield, has called for Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer to suspend her if she is elected), underlying political dynamics make her the clear favorite in today’s vote. The comments she reportedly made in 2015 pertained to both two sitting Birmingham Labour M.P.s not looking after ‘the needs of the community’ as well as musing about not getting ‘what we really deserve in this country using the votes … but I don’t know if we are a strong enough to get what we want to get if we have an uprising. I think we will be quashed in such a way we could lose a generation of our young people. So I am very torn.” Starmer though has appeared alongside Councillor Hamilton during the campaign and it appears unlikely that the controversy would either result in Labour losing the constituency or Hamilton being suspended if elected.