* Polling is variable, Liberal lead is, depending on the poll, anywhere from +3 to +20, surveys all conducted around the same time

I am giving the Liberals a +4% lead, given that the last election had them at +10%, they have been in power for 10 years, and while Premier John Hogan has not been leader long, tenure generally runs about 3-4 mandates between the two main parties (excepting Premier Smallwood’s very long tenure at the beginning on Newfoundland provincial elections)

The main fight for ridings appears to be around the St. John’s area/Avalon Peninsula. Most of the rural areas, while certainly capable of larger swings than reflected in the overall provincial popular vote, are likely not to change hands, especially if polling remains overall comparable to 2021.

Liberals – expected to hold Mount Scio; St. John’s West; Virginia Waters – Pleasantville; Waterford Valley and Windsor Lake (Premier’s riding, former PC Leader Ches Crosbie’s riding which he lost to Hogan back in 2021) in the St. John’s city proper area. In the wider metro area expected to hold Conception Bay East – Bell Island (albeit narrowly); in the Avalon Peninsula overall should be able to hold off PC challenges in Carbonear – Trinity – Baie de Verde and Habour Grace – Port de Grave. Expected to retain Burin – Grand Bank in eastern Newfoundland, Fogo Island – Cape Freels; Fortune Bay – Cape La Hune; Gander and Lewisporte – Twillingate in Central Newfoundland. In western Newfoundland expected to retain Burgeo – La Poile; Corner Brook; Humber – Gros Morne; a squeaker in St. Barbe – L’Anse aux Meadows and more convincingly to hold St. George’s – Humber. Finally, in Labrador – should be able to hang onto Cartwright – L’Anse au Clair.

Progressive Conservatives under Tony Wakeham – no gains expected in St. John’s proper, however an outside chance of picking up their former interim leader David Brazil’s nearby riding of Conception Bay East – Bell Island, currently held by cabinet minister and Liberal Fred Hutton. Should be able to hang onto Cape St. Francis; Conception Bay South; and Topsail Paradise. The PCs are likely to flip Mount Pearl North, further out on the Avalon they are also expected to flip Placentia – St. Mary’s in addition to retaining Ferryland and Habour Main. Eastern Newfoundland is expected to return the PCs in Bonavista, Placentia West – Bellevue and Terra Nova, ridings they currently hold. Central Newfoundland is likely to return PCs in Exploits and Grand Falls – Windsor – Buchans, they are also expected to retain Baie Verte – Green Bay, if more narrowly, a riding they won in a by-election in the last Assembly. On the western side of the island, Wakeham is expected to have little difficulty retaining Stephenville – Port au Port, along with a strong second in St. Barbe – L’Anse aux Meadows. In Labrador Lela Evans should hang onto Torngat Mountains for the PCs, (after changing affiliations to the NDP and then rejoining them); they are likely expected to pick up Lake Melville with former MHA Keith Russell, after sometime Liberal/Independent Perry Trimper is not running again for the riding he has held since 2015.

The NDP traditionally do best in St. John’s, where leader Jim Dinn retains St. John’s Centre. Their best chance of a pickup is in former leader Allison Coffin’s riding of St. John’s East – Quidi Vidi, last held by the Liberals but now defending an open seat. Labrador West is an open seat riding the NDP are defending, with municipal politician Shazia Razi hoping to replace outgoing MHA Jordan Brown.

The last 2 elections had a relatively large number of independent MHAs, two incumbents are running again, both having won their ridings by large margins in the last election – Paul Lane in Mount Pearl – Southlands near St. John’s, and Eddie Joyce in Humber – Bay of Islands, and both expected to win again this election as well.

Theretically the PCs do have a shot at winning – they would need to win in ridings like Conception Bay East – Bell Island and probably the Premier’s riding of WIndsor Lake, if not St. Barbe – L’Anse aux Medows before they win a plurality of seats. Ridings such as St. John’s West, Labrador West and St. George’s – Humber would likely fiture in a majority PC government. The Liberals, to retain a majority, would need to retain all the ridings they currently held, or did hold in the last assembly. Outside chances of expanding their majority would likely include winning back Lake Melville and Baie Verte – Green Bay while retaining St. John’s East – Quidi Vidi. In the less likely event that the two independent MHAs expected to retain their seats should rejoin the Liberals, that would be the strongest majority they had since Dwight Ball’s win nearly 10 years ago.

Final Expected Result –

Liberals – 19 and 45% of the Vote

PCs – 16 and 41% of the Vote

NDP – 3 and 11% of the Vote

IND – 2 and 3% of the Vote