The last three times the NDP won an initial mandate in Saskatchewan, 1944, 1971 and 1991, there was alot of CCF/NDP representation in the rural areas. This year, it appears that Carla Beck’s NDP will likely form government based almost completely on urban and far north representation. The map will still have alot of Saskatchewan Party green, representing rural areas in the southern half of the province.

At the outset of the campaign it was expected that the NDP would pick up urban support, especially in light of several by-election gains in August of 2023, but that the Saskatchewan Party was sufficiently ahead to hold onto power, perhaps easily. Successive polls have discernably put the NDP out in front, but unlike those prior elections where the NDP won an initial mandate, they are running fairly close with the incumbent Saskatchewan Party and are still likely under 50% of the popular vote. Tommy Douglas, Allan Blakeney and Roy Romanov all won power for their first mandate with over 50% of the vote and were at least 10 points ahead of any other party.

Thus any notion of an rural/urban divide would need to consider the fact that unlike other first time NDP wins, this is a fairly close race which is at least partly driving the urban/rural divide. At the same time, however, many of the ridings aren’t even close, with approximately 20 seats, all Saskatchewan Party rural seats, being decided by margins of over 15%, and another 20 seats, nearly all Saskatoon/Regina urban seats, being won by the NDP by at least the same 15% margin.

Only 9 seats are projected to be within 5%, 2 of them Saskatchewan Party rural seats and 7 NDP urban seats, including Regina – Wascana Plains and several eastern Saskatoon ridings. If the polling is off even slightly, it is certainly possible that incumbent Premier Scott Moe could be returned with a bare majority. Only a third of those 9 seats would in fact need to flip, based on my projections, for the Saskatchewan Party to be returned to power with a majority.

Projections

Despite photo finish in popular vote, NDP have advantages with reduced Green vote and greater voter efficiency in lower mainland, esp. Surrey.

The BC Conservatives are slated to have their first seat since 1975 (then the PC Party) in the provincial legislature, and their best showing in seat counts ever. The last time they won government outright (not part of the Liberal/PC Coalition Government in the 1940s) was 96 years ago, Simon Fraser Tolmie’s 1928 win, when the legislature was slightly more than half the size it is now. Thus this evening will likely be the best seat count on record for the party since 1903, (genesis of partisan contested BC elections) and the best popular vote share since 1928.

For the NDP, this would be the second back-to-back majority government in their history in B.C., the first one being in 1996 after winning power in 1991. They previously formed a government for the first time in 1972 under Premier Dave Barrett but were defeated for re-election in 1975. Much like their 1996 re-election, the NDP are likely looking at a much-reduced bare majority and a near tie in the popular vote (the BC Liberals actually won 2 percentage points more in the popular vote that year than the NDP). Their best showing both in terms of seats and popular vote, since contesting elections in 1933 as the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation, was in 2020 under the previous Premier, John Horgan.

Overall Vote Totals and Seats

Labour – 39% and 390 Seats

Conservative – 24% and 157 Seats

Reform – 16% and 2 Seats

Liberal Democrat – 11% and 59 Seats

Green – 5% and 1 Seat

Scottish Nationalist Party – 3% and 1 Seat

Other – 2% and 24 Seats

For a race to be counted as correctly predicted, BOTH the overall winner and the percentage votes for both major candidates has to be correct (% within +/- 10% of actual result).

Little action expected on the Democratic side, Biden projected to dominate with 80% of votes cast.

Lower turnout overall in Super Tuesday voting due to relative strength of front runners in both parties.

No predictions today as both projected winners, Biden, D and Trump, R far ahead in polls.

Watch for ‘uncommitted’ (purple shaded on map) and Haley support (green) for relative strength on map, even as both front runners might sweep all counties. A strong Haley showing, (i.e. furthering the narrative of a persistent anti-Trump faction in the GOP ahead of Super Tuesday) is around 25%. An “uncommitted” vote on the Democratic side of 10% or more would further raise concerns about Biden’s 2020 coalition hanging together, 20% or more would portend a particularly challenging situation from the standpoint of a general election. Both Trump and Biden will be compared to each other in this swing state to see who has relatively higher support in their respective party.

The other factor is relative turnout for each primary as a barometer of ethusiasm on each side. I would project Biden and the Ds might run a bit lower than turnout in the R primary since the incumbent’s party has less of a race, Haley has a higher national profile than Dean Phillips (Biden’s remaining opponent) and might profit with some additional interest from voters more motivated to oppose Trump.

Overall race predicted only, not margins or individual counties

Margin expected to be 60-70% Trump and 30-40% Haley

Democrats

The Good – Former Congressman Tom Suozzi, who represented the area previously from 2017 until the current Congress won his old district handily on February 13th, with a margin of nearly eight points over Republican candidate Mazi Pilip

The overall Republican majority in the U.S. House remains quite thin.

Mr. Suozzi’s win appears to have shown a path forward (if not an entirely replicable path) on the issue of immigration, which is seen as more of a traditional Republican strength.

The Bad – From a Democratic Party standpoint, Mr. Suozzi distanced himself from President Biden, which will be harder for House Democrats as a whole to do in the general election, not to mention the implications for the top of the ticket in November.

Republicans

The Good – Despite what has been characterized as chaos in the U.S. House; running a relatively unknown candidate compared to her Democratic rival; being outspent almost 2 to 1 by the Democrats,; not to mention the notoriety of the previous incumbent, (Republican George Santos, only one of six U.S. Representatives expelled in that body’s entire history) – they maintained a respectable, competitive vote share.

The Bad – The Republicans lost. Their House majority shrank where it was already very tight, and Democrats, at least where Suozzi’s campaign is concerned, appear to have shown that they can at least partially neutralize the immigration issue that has been traditionally seen as a strength for Republicans. Moreover, Pilip did not really embrace former President Trump, the likely Republican nominee at this point, which caused for some push back later on.

A brief synopsis of NY–03

This is a suburban Long Island Congressional district that took its current form, encompassing Nassau County and a section of northeast Queens, in 2023. Some urban planners and geographers might recall that Levittown, in the district, was the site of suburban developments which were seen as a prototype of post-war suburbia throughout the country.

The district is rated D + 2 , with Biden carrying it by 10 points. It is one of the nation’s wealthiest and one with a highly educated electorate.

The district took its more or less current form in the early 1960s, prior to that, the area was represented by NY-01 consisting of the eastern part of Long Island. To the extent that any U.S. Congressional District can be called a true swing seat, this district would certainly qualify, although the district’s changing parties has not entirely coincided with control of the U.S. House changing hands at the same time. Probably the most prominent former Congressman from the district is Peter T. King, the Republican representing the district between 1993 and 2013, for the latter part of his tenure Chair of the House Homeland Security Committee.

There is a good chance that a new NY-03 will be somewhat altered as the Democratic-controlled NY State Assembly was greenlighted to redraw congressional boundaries before the fall elections.

While voter turnout was fairly respectable in this special election, there were concerns that the weather might have impacted voter participation.

The Takeaway

There may be some upside to Democrats flipping a district in a year where the country remains deeply polarized and the two likely Presidential contenders remaining neck and neck in the polls. However, this race is more limited as a portent for November. For one, both candidates were seen as distancing themselves from their respective parties’ frontrunners for the Presidential nomination (Biden and Trump), which would be hard for any Congressional candidate to do in the general election. Secondly, the victor, Mr. Suozzi, was a strong candidate, previously serving as Congressman for the district as well as a former Nassau County Executive. Thirdly, while Democrats have an advantage in voter registration, Long Island has in recent years been trending away from Democrats given such issues as migration and crime, especially in the Nassau County portion. The caveat, then, with this particular region and November is that although this area has a lot in common with pivotal suburbs in such palces as Atlanta and Phoenix (suburbs which could well determine the outcome of November’s election), Long Island has moved, at least to some extent, in the opposite direction towards Republicans in contrast with other suburban areas. Despite this, the unique conditions of a special election and a strong Democratic candidate were sufficient to overcome any underlying trends.

Note – for an overview of U.S. Congressional boundary changes over time, I would highly recommend United States Congressional District Shapfiles which provided me with the historical boundaries of New York’s Third Congressional District.