No predictions today as both projected winners, Biden, D and Trump, R far ahead in polls.

Watch for ‘uncommitted’ (purple shaded on map) and Haley support (green) for relative strength on map, even as both front runners might sweep all counties. A strong Haley showing, (i.e. furthering the narrative of a persistent anti-Trump faction in the GOP ahead of Super Tuesday) is around 25%. An “uncommitted” vote on the Democratic side of 10% or more would further raise concerns about Biden’s 2020 coalition hanging together, 20% or more would portend a particularly challenging situation from the standpoint of a general election. Both Trump and Biden will be compared to each other in this swing state to see who has relatively higher support in their respective party.

The other factor is relative turnout for each primary as a barometer of ethusiasm on each side. I would project Biden and the Ds might run a bit lower than turnout in the R primary since the incumbent’s party has less of a race, Haley has a higher national profile than Dean Phillips (Biden’s remaining opponent) and might profit with some additional interest from voters more motivated to oppose Trump.