Welcome to Eric Votes …

We are work-in-progress but hope to scale up soon.

Politics is in my blood … I’ve been closely following politics in 3 countries – Canada, the United States, and the U.K. for over 3 decades. In my day job I work with numbers, stats and spread sheets so breaking down polling and election stats is second nature to me. But more than that, I believe this website might make, however modest, a contribution towards civic and democratic culture and norms.

How so?

*A one-stop shop, free to the public, of a comprehensive chronicle of all votes and elections in Canada, the U.S. and the U.K., at the national level at least, the nations level in the U.K., provincial in Canada and most statewide elections in the U.S. … if we can drill down to poll/precinct level detail complete with maps and bring in local elections, so much the better

* Engagement across the board, in a non-partisan, politically neutral way that brings in local and grass roots bloggers of a variety of different backgrounds and beliefs. Yes, there is a lot going on in the world, many issues that need engagement on, and I use other forums to speak to those where warranted. But for the purposes of this website and its objectives, I believe neutrality and non-partisan, open engagement across the spectrum is the right way to go. Hopefully a civil yet free exchange of ideas with people across the political spectrum on elections past, present and future might make something of a difference in allaying the deep polarization many analysts reference at the present time.

* Further to grass roots engagement – in building up a social media presence I specifically aim to bring in a wide range of bloggers and commentators close to the ground in their communities, and I believe with some experience and discernment, I can make better projections than the polls alone. That’s not to say that I won’t follow the big players in the media, polling, and commentators, but especially as I try to forecast races with smaller populations like Yukon, analysts simply can’t function by polls alone.  There simply is no substitute for people on the ground.  For me, their perspectives go a long way.

*Promoting the (often forgotten) awareness of the rich electoral history and past trends in these 3 countries, sometimes on a micro, sometimes on a macro level – the good, the bad, and the ugly. And sometimes I will try to fuse trends together and create even more obscure trivia, like the supposition that both Ontario and Virginia are probably the 2 jurisdictions in North America most apt to vote for one party federally and vote the opposite party at the state/provincial level, almost like clockwork.  Or how current 905/Peel Region political culture in Ontario is similar, on one level, to voting trends and politics in Florida in the 1920s (seriously, you could make the case).

* I tally my predictions on the percentages of races I call right (before a race is formally called). That requires an entirely separate page for disclaimers and clarifications (for instance, I don’t count acclamations or same parties in jungle primary runoffs towards % predicted correctly) … ultimately though while I am very close to 90%, I do not want to exceed 90% by much. Why? You might ask … simply because a certain amount of unpredictability and the human dimension can be a good thing. At the end of the day, a chronicle of the people’s voice, which this website hopes to become, stands as testament to the power of democracy, some hopeful progress for humankind and a refutation of algorithmically programed choice, i.e. maybe a century out a big super computer running our government for us, including making choices for us.  But that’s way out in the future, hopefully much further out than getting this website fully operational.

So, one question that might come up, as I aim for neutrality, is how I deal with contested elections. Do I accept the results? – particularly of one rather infamous election that happened not long ago.

Actually, this is not entirely new to me, since I intently followed the 2000 Presidential election and its aftermath, and tried to get a handle on all the arguments for or against taking certain actions or applying certain standards.

This lends itself to a whole other post to fully delve into the criteria of accepting elections, but at some base level I have to assume that if an elections official makes a call and it is essentially affirmed by the courts (after so much litigation they are not blocking the certification, in other words), then that’s what I will go with as the official winner.

While I certainly acknowledge that malfeasance can and does occur in elections, I also have to assume that, for the time being, at least, the rule of law, due process and the recognition of voter rights largely holds in all three countries. I recognize for some that is a questionable conclusion, a view held both on the right and the left. Yet the fact that we still have mostly high turnout in most national elections across the political spectrum, and generally peaceful transfers of power occur, stands as testament that however troubled our system may be, there is still enough recognition that at least some things still work, and votes will be properly counted. Otherwise, one might ask, what is the point of having an elections predictions website (or for some, even voting).

The other criticism I might expect to face at some point, if this website takes off, is who is this presumptuous amateur and how can he think he can predict elections places like St. Ives, Fermanagh, Chibougamau, Tucumcari, or Old Crow (none of which I have ever visited).  Short answer, with a great deal of humility, and ever seeking to engage with people on the ground.  But the other piece involves testing hypotheses, looking at the data, formulating new theories, wrestling with it all and helping build that ongoing chronicle to vox populi, along with the recognition that inevitably I am going to get some of this wrong.  And to some extent, that’s a good thing.

So I look forward over the next few years of building this website up to its full potential, engaging with people of many different backgrounds, imparting hopefully some insight into underlying trends but also learning much more from the people who engage with this website, in short, the people in three exemplary countries whom this website aims to serve.

Politics is a big part of my life but not all of it – I’ve a family, pets, am very fortunate (blessed, I would even say) to live in a scenic, verdant part of the world in Tennessee, in the amazing Upper Cumberland region replete with many state parks and waterways I can canoe.  I originally grew up in two of the three towns in Southern Ontario with the highest percentage of francophones, southern part of the province – both Welland and Penetang (Penetanguishene), so southern living is a bit of a shift. On the one hand you have the heat and humidity but the music, literature, sports, hospitality, along with the food (!) makes this a great place to be with my family.

So if I am not making posts, I might be canoeing, hiking, growing pole beans, reading the classics, aspiring to restore a 1949 Dodge Power Wagon, rooting for the Predators, learning new languages, watching classic movies, exploring different varieties of music, drinking dark ales or consuming southern desserts with liberal amounts of Jack Daniels in the sauce.

Please enjoy the website!

Feedback welcome.