Nova Scotia to return incumbent PCs back to power as Liberals feel brunt of loss

PCs on track for a super majority government of 44 seats and 47% of the vote under incumbent Premier Tim Houston, their best showing since 1984 under then Premier John Buchanan

NDP largely hold their own in seats and popular vote from the previous 2021 election, with most of their support coming from central Halifax or Cape Breton Island

Liberals are projected to barely retain official party status in the Legislature, with the possibility that the leader, Zack Churchill, loses his Yarmouth seat. Their popular vote was as low as recently as 2006, (in the lower 20s), their seat count at 3 would be tied at a 99-year all-time low in the election of 1925 when Premier Ernest Howard Armstrong experienced a steep loss to Conservative Edgar Nelson Rhodes. This year they are predicted to keep 2 seats in the greater Halifax area and one on Cape Breton.

For the country as a whole, it remains to be seen if this is the beginning of a trend where conservative premiers go to the polls early, in anticipation of more upheaval from both Ottawa and Washington, D.C., and are not punished for an early election call. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is likely paying particularly close attention to this result.

PartySeatsPercentage
PC, Houston4447%
NDP, Chender825%
Liberal, Churchill323%
Green, Edmonds03%
Other02%