The last three times the NDP won an initial mandate in Saskatchewan, 1944, 1971 and 1991, there was alot of CCF/NDP representation in the rural areas. This year, it appears that Carla Beck’s NDP will likely form government based almost completely on urban and far north representation. The map will still have alot of Saskatchewan Party green, representing rural areas in the southern half of the province.

At the outset of the campaign it was expected that the NDP would pick up urban support, especially in light of several by-election gains in August of 2023, but that the Saskatchewan Party was sufficiently ahead to hold onto power, perhaps easily. Successive polls have discernably put the NDP out in front, but unlike those prior elections where the NDP won an initial mandate, they are running fairly close with the incumbent Saskatchewan Party and are still likely under 50% of the popular vote. Tommy Douglas, Allan Blakeney and Roy Romanov all won power for their first mandate with over 50% of the vote and were at least 10 points ahead of any other party.

Thus any notion of an rural/urban divide would need to consider the fact that unlike other first time NDP wins, this is a fairly close race which is at least partly driving the urban/rural divide. At the same time, however, many of the ridings aren’t even close, with approximately 20 seats, all Saskatchewan Party rural seats, being decided by margins of over 15%, and another 20 seats, nearly all Saskatoon/Regina urban seats, being won by the NDP by at least the same 15% margin.

Only 9 seats are projected to be within 5%, 2 of them Saskatchewan Party rural seats and 7 NDP urban seats, including Regina – Wascana Plains and several eastern Saskatoon ridings. If the polling is off even slightly, it is certainly possible that incumbent Premier Scott Moe could be returned with a bare majority. Only a third of those 9 seats would in fact need to flip, based on my projections, for the Saskatchewan Party to be returned to power with a majority.

Projections

Despite photo finish in popular vote, NDP have advantages with reduced Green vote and greater voter efficiency in lower mainland, esp. Surrey.

The BC Conservatives are slated to have their first seat since 1975 (then the PC Party) in the provincial legislature, and their best showing in seat counts ever. The last time they won government outright (not part of the Liberal/PC Coalition Government in the 1940s) was 96 years ago, Simon Fraser Tolmie’s 1928 win, when the legislature was slightly more than half the size it is now. Thus this evening will likely be the best seat count on record for the party since 1903, (genesis of partisan contested BC elections) and the best popular vote share since 1928.

For the NDP, this would be the second back-to-back majority government in their history in B.C., the first one being in 1996 after winning power in 1991. They previously formed a government for the first time in 1972 under Premier Dave Barrett but were defeated for re-election in 1975. Much like their 1996 re-election, the NDP are likely looking at a much-reduced bare majority and a near tie in the popular vote (the BC Liberals actually won 2 percentage points more in the popular vote that year than the NDP). Their best showing both in terms of seats and popular vote, since contesting elections in 1933 as the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation, was in 2020 under the previous Premier, John Horgan.

Overall Vote Totals and Seats