These are fairly close odds, given the overall lack of polling prior to the election and a number of tight races in urban areas that will determine the outcome. Regardless of who forms government, this is likely to be a close election in terms of number of seats won. The popular vote is likely to favour the Liberals by anywhere from 5-10 points, however their vote efficiency is less than the incumbent PCs (as attested to in 2018, winning the popular vote by close to 6 points but losing the election overall).

Formal political labels in elections were only used in New Brunswick starting in the election of 1935, since that time it has not been unprecedented for the province to align provincially to the party already holding power federally – the 2010 election with David Alward’s Progressive Conservatives being the most recent instance.

Thanks to Adam Nir, Unsplash

Perhaps more noteworthy is since the start of party elections in 1935, New Brunswick has historically elected fairly stable governments lasting at least two terms, with such well known Premiers as Louis Robichaud, Richard Hatfield and Frank McKenna. In the election of 2003, Bernard Lord’s governing PCs were returned with only a bare majority. Since that time, no successive government has won a back-to-back majority. It has also coincided with governments winning lesser majorities than the landslide sweeps of prior legislatures (including Frank McKenna’s 1987 complete shutout of the PCs and all other parties).

The result of this year’s election is projected to be (majority => 25)

SeatsPopular Vote
Liberals2645.5%
PCs2237.5%
Greens110.75%
Others06.25%

In this election, the closely fought ridings determining the ultimate outcome are likely (but perhaps not entirely) to be: Fredericton North (projected PC win); Fredericton Lincoln (projected Green win by leader David Coon); Kent North (projected Liberal win from Green); Miramichi Bay-Neguac and Miramichi East (both projected Liberal wins); Moncton Northwest (projected PC win); Moncton South (projected Liberal win); Saint John Harbour (projected Liberal win) and Tantramar (projected Liberal win from Green). With the close margin of error in just these ridings alone, it is definitely possible that the Greens could improve from the above projections by 2, the Liberals by 3, and the PCs by 5, the last possibility returning the PCs back to power with a majority government with the same seat count they currently have.

NB Election Final 2024Download