Update: The results are in and this prediction was wrong, Liberal Fred Hutton ended up with a fairly decisive victory with unofficial results showing him with nearly one half of the vote. I look forward to learning more about what factors contributed to his win. A wise former U.S. House Speaker once said that “all politics is local” and I suspect this factored into his win as he had deep family roots in the riding (among other factors). The logo rebranding the provincial Liberals did evidently worked. I predict as a hobby races in three countries, Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. and between Newfoundland and Labrador and Northern Ireland, these have to be the hardest races to predict. I am certainly appreciative however of the challenges of psephology (election analysis and predictions) and am glad for these “outliers” in making this hobby truly interesting and rewarding. Always something new to learn … thanks to all who happened by my website or who took the time to interact with me on X (Twitter).
By-election called due to resignation of former interim PC Leader David Brazil due to health reasons.
Conception Bay East – Bell Island is seen as a reliably PC seat in the St. John’s exurban area, having voted blue since 2003 … prior to that was more of a Liberal-leaning bellwether.
The constituency has taken on its present form since the 1985 election, consisting of Bell Island in Conception Bay, Portugal Cove-St. Philip’s on the mainland east and a portion of Paradise. For a number of elections Bell Island was its own constituency, and in other years it was grouped with Harbour Main at the head of Conception Bay.
Confederation Building, St. John’s thanks Erik Mclean, Unsplash
Federally the riding has been a part of the St. John’s East … in surveying polling station results since 1997, Bell Island has trended strong PC/Conservative except in strong NDP years, whereas the Portugal Cove – St. Philips section has seen all three main federal parties showing various levels of support depending on the overall strength.
All three main parties are running candidates in the election along with one independent candidate. Among the main riding issues include improved local ferry service, health care and ambulance services, the winter closure of a local waste facility, road conditions and overall cost of living. It is worth noting that the byelection was originally scheduled for Monday, January 29th but was postponed one day due to the weather.
Tina Neary is the PC candidate and most likely to succeed David Brazil. A town councilor for Portugal Cove-St. Philip’s, she is also a non-profit Executive Director. The campaign has alluded to issues of general affordability on their campaign website, while others have tried to tie the provincial Liberal candidate to their unpopular federal counterparts and the carbon tax.
Identified as a Bell Island address, thanks to Kywen Liu, Unsplash
There was some question that the independent candidate, Darryl Harding, a colleague of Neary’s on town council, might split some of the vote as he self-identified as an ‘independent progressive conservative’ although Neary said she was not concerned about a possible vote split. Harding was suspended from council last March due to allegations of sexual harassment and breaching the town’s code of conduct. Prior to the byelection, he was formerly the local PC district association president who accused PC Leader Tony Wakeham of hand-picking Neary as the byelection candidate and wrote a negative letter questioning Wakeham’s leadership.
Liberal Fred Hutton was a prominent journalist and adviser to Premier Andrew Furey. The Liberals have notably dropped their logo on campaign signs and replaced those with the Premier’s name, an acknowledgement perhaps of the Liberals’ national unpopularity. In the campaign he has addressed health care, ferry service and dumping. One of Hutton’s more memorable quotes in the campaign was related to road issues. “When I am your MHA, I will be able to pick up the phone and call the transportation minister and say, ‘These roads … need to be done in this year’s budget,’ and they will be done.”
NDP Candidate and disability rights activist Kim Churchill is probably best known for her fight in court to have the Newfoundland and Labrador English School District provide services for her son in American Sign Language, a case she won last spring. Her campaign has focused on ferry service, health care, housing, and affordability.
Topsail Beach just outside of riding on Conception Bay … sunset still looks the same thanks to Ibrahim Alonge, Unsplash
The bottom line – Premier Furey’s government is relatively popular, as is his Premiership, compared to his federal cousins, although not overwhelmingly so. Wakeham, the new PC Leader and NDP Jim Dinn have held their own in support since the last election. Neary should be able to keep the seat in PC hands, the potential vote splitting by the independent candidate will likely be negligible compared to the overall PC lean of the riding. If the Liberals place distant third, despite their new branding and relative high-profile candidate, that will likely indicate that national trends are impacting otherwise more local races. The NDP can hope to place a strong second, but this is territory they have not won previously on the provincial level, although at the polling station level federally they have fairly recently shown some strength. Final prediction is a PC hold, vote shares PC around 60%, NDP and Liberals around 20% a piece, IND a few percentage points. (Overall result predicted, not vote share).
Even though New Hampshire is holding their ‘first in the nation’ presidential primaries today for both the Democratic and Republican parties, there is a sense that both parties have largely decided that this will be a Biden versus Trump rematch. Since thus far only Iowa (a caucus, not a primary) has already voted, this raises the specter that for the first half of 2024, the supposedly tumultuous year for democracy, primaries might be more pro-forma and anti-climactic, the winners already decided, with national attention perhaps focused elsewhere, i.e. court or congressional battles.
On the Republican side, while twenty-four names plus one write-in line appear on the ballot, the race is between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and former President Donald Trump. Haley has been hoping for an upset win where most polls show her trailing by between 15 to 25 points. While Governor Ron DeSantis’ withdrawal might have moved (a small number of) voters over to Trump in the state, DeSantis’ endorsement of Trump was likely more impactful nationally in giving Trump the sense of inevitability of becoming the nominee. Nationally Haley is barely able to crack double digits against Trump’s two-thirds to three quarters of Republican support.
Haley has a much narrower path than this NH rail bridge … Balazs Busznyak, Unsplash
The Haley team is hoping that a strong showing, beating expectations in New Hampshire, will help set the stage for the February 24th primary in her home state of South Carolina, and then run competitive with Trump in the (oftentimes pivotal) early March Super Tuesday contests. (Perhaps aided by any legal troubles Trump might encounter.) While Haley has secured the endorsement of New Hampshire’s Governor, Chris Sununu and is seen as having attracted a coalition of traditional Republicans, Never Trumpers and some cross over independent voters (primaries are not open to Democratic-affiliated voters), significant obstacles remain going forward. The South Carolina primary is another month away, where it might be challenging to maintain momentum. Nevada will hold a primary earlier on February 6th, and Trump is far ahead in a state where he has a significant business presence. South Carolina is also an uphill battle for Haley, where Trump has secured the endorsement of most of the congressional delegation, the two Senators and the incumbent Governor, and where he leads by over twenty points in most recent polls.
So, while Governor Haley has taken a somewhat more combative tone in the New Hampshire primary, and where this race bears the most watching tonight, to see at least if she exceeds expectations, going forward it appears that she would need to do some very persuasive arm twisting in her home state alone to stay viable even there. My prediction here is that she her tally is within 15 – 25 points of Trump, (no surprise like John McCain’s 2000 upset, in other words), and she drops out by Nevada.
***
Meanwhile, the Democratic Primary …
Some clouds of uncertainty with the Democratic Primary – timing, candidates, winnability, etc. Thanks Brian Yurasits, Unsplash
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side … there are twenty-one names plus the write-in on the Democratic New Hampshire primary ballot, but President Biden’s name will not listed be among them. He is waging a write-in campaign instead. New rules from the Democratic National Committee sought to have greater diversity in earlier voting contests in the presidential primaries and officially moved, (where the DNC is concerned), South Carolina as the first state to hold an official primary contest. New Hampshire Democrats have pushed back against the proposal and noted that their state law provides for a presidential primary to be held at least seven days prior to any other state. The state Democratic Party affirmed their date, citing state law, prompting push back from the DNC, saying that they cannot accept this exercise as determinative of delegate selection to this summer’s national convention, using in some correspondence the word ‘meaningless,’ prompting yet more pushback from state officials.
The end result is that while Biden is not officially campaigning in New Hampshire, a number of New Hampshire Biden supporters staged a write-in campaign for the incumbent President anyway. It might be noted that this is not the first time a state’s Democratic primary came in conflict with the DNC, the most notable instances perhaps being that of Michigan and Florida in 2008, where those states moved their primaries up to January 15th and 29th, respectively. Both delegations were initially halved that summer as a result, before finally being restored to full voting rights on the eve of that year’s convention. One would be hard pressed to argue that the dustup had an adverse effect on Democratic chances that fall, with Barack Obama carrying MIchigan by nearly seventeen percentage points, Florida was closer but still decisive at just under a three percent margin for Obama.
Fall Scene in New Hampshire thanks Federick Shaw, Unsplash
Biden’s two main challengers are author and activist Marriane Williamson, who previously ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 and Minnesota Congressman Dean Philips, seen as more moderate and in some circles as a more serious challenger to the incumbent president. Williamson aligns more on the progressive left, with calls for such reforms to address poverty, the environment and large investments in education and healthcare. Phillips, from Minnesota’s suburban 3rd Congressional District, has tacked centrist on such issues as Israel and belongs to the moderate Problem Solvers Caucus in Congress. His campaign has been arguably hampered by a series of missteps, however, including criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris, (where he later apologized) and some flirtation with a White House bid under the No Labels banner, even if he later ruled it out.
Nationally Williamson and Phillips are well back in the single digits in polling where Biden far outpaces them with close to two-third to three quarters support. In New Hampshire, however, Biden is polling in the 50s/60s range whereas Phillips’ support ranges anywhere from 6 – 32% based on the current month’s polling. If the narrative on the Republican side shifts towards a Trump coronation, which it will likely do if he beats Haley by 20% or more, the story tonight might be Biden’s numbers, especially should they be less than 60%, by any standards low for an incumbent president. While there is a discernable hunger for a 2024 contest other than a Biden/Trump rematch, New Hampshire is likely not the state to deliver a harsh verdict to Biden given that the younger, more diverse cross section of voters polling suggests is more dissatisfied with the Biden candidacy are not as represented in this state.
Things will get more intense this coming fall, with narrow pathways to win for both parties. Thanks to Spencer Sembrat, Unsplash
Thus, it is unlikely that we will hear from Biden a 1968 Lyndon Johnson speech “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President” after LBJ won only half of the vote in that year’s NH primary against (also from Minnesota) Senator Eugene McCarthy. Phillips simply does not have the name recognition and profile that McCarthy did, nor are the Democrats as divided as they were in 1968 to give Biden immediate pause. But a low level, i.e., <60%, could certainly harm Biden.
New Hampshire only saw an incumbent President defeated once in their primaries, with Harry Truman losing to Tennessee Senator Eastes Kefauver in 1952 (and hastening his withdrawal from the race). More recently, Jimmy Carter won only 48% when he ran against Senator Edward Kennedy for renomination, although given Kennedy was from a neighboring state, that 48% was seen as a more decisive victory. On the Republican side, Nixon only won 68% in 1972, in his bid for renomination, although his neither of his opponents had a high profile and he won the general in a landslide. Ford (50% in 1976) and Bush Sr., (53% in 1992) fought contested primaries, however, and that threshold of support augured badly for their re-election bids later on. Biden can always spin it as the difference as write-in, as opposed to fully engaged campaigning, but lacking any suspenseful narrative on the Republican side, he needs considerably more than 50% to shut down any underground campaign that his reelection bid is in serious trouble.
My prediction here is Biden gets at least 60% of the vote, and likely falls within the range of 60% – 75% to keep moving forward. Phillips and Williamson might remain in the race, but their overall polling stays mostly below 10%.
The irony of this exercise is that more likely than not, the expected tumultuous 2024 will start out quietly on the primary front, with both parties lining up behind their prospective tickets (unusually) early, with successive primaries already being a foregone conclusion, along with lower voter turnout and people largely tuning out until at least the summer conventions. Certainly litigation with the Republican frontrunner could upend that, although the attention would likely be on the courtroom, not the ballot box. We might reasonably expect polling for the general to show a dead heat, or with some polling with Trump ahead in the low/mid-single digits with third parties on the ballot. I would expect things to get more heated in the second half of the year, with some polling possibly changing at that point, so analysts and voters alike might appreciate a less intense primary season before the main event truly gets underway.
Update 10.30 pm: At this point 90% + of the vote is in. Donald Trump is slightly over 50%. DeSantis is slightly ahead of Haley, outside my predicted margin of 2%, although that may tighten. The following map is for second place, Trump appears to have won all 99 counties. The lighter shaded areas indicate where the vote is less than 80% in. Brown-shaded is for DeSantis, green-shaded for Haley. The counties with stripes denote larger urban centers. As predicted, Haley did well in urban centers but not as well as she likely needed to, as DeSantis is narrowly ahead in the largest county, Polk, where the capital Des Moines is located. DeSantis also did well in the critical northwest section that promised to be a battleground of sorts for second place. At this point, it appears that DeSantis is on track to outperform polling expectations and place second, albeit not by a lot. Haley still has some vote outstanding in Waterloo (Black Hawk) and Cedar Rapids (Linn) which might help keep the distance between her and DeSantis < 2%. Map is as of 10.15 pm, so does not convey real-time results, more for purposes of illustrating where each candidate’s respective strength is.
2nd Place showing as of 10.15 pm approx. … Brown, DeSantis; Green, Haley; Pink, Ramaswamy; lighter shade is <80% vote in, striped areas denote larger urban areas
Update 8.17 pm: Very preliminary returns, as expected race has been called for Trump. When I post this it will likely still have 95% of precincts and votes still outstanding. Thus far race looks like a nail bitter for the crucial second place with Haley and DeSantis seesawing back and forth between 2nd & 3rd. DeSantis is doing somewhat better in the northwest section of the state and a shade better than I would have expected in the urban areas. Trump might fall below 50%. I am curious if there have been any empirical studies on the psychology of Iowa Caucus goers voting in real time if they are aware that a race has already been called. It appears the answer is no and no, i.e. I can’t seem to find any empirical studies at first glance and no calling a race does not, at this point, appear to have changed much minds if Trump’s % is slightly falling, as opposed to rising.
The 2024 U.S. election year kicks off with the Republican Iowa caucuses, a quadrennial event going back to 1976 for that party, and touted as first in the nation in the presidential selection process. Iowa caucuses have had some success in predicting eventual nominees, although in this instance the true race may be for second place, while the cold sub-zero temperatures raise questions as to overall turnout.
MLK, Jr. photo thanks to Unseen Histories on Unsplash
The caucus date also falls on the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday, observed the third Monday each January. This happened previously with the Iowa Caucuses in 2004. While the Republican Party initially set the date, (some claiming it was an accident or oversight), and there was some concern that the ‘first-in-the-nation’ caucus might divert a fair amount of national attention from the holiday itself, the state Democratic Party ultimately ended up chosing the same date for their caucuses and pledged to honor the Civil Rights leader’s legacy during the meetings.
A caucus differs from a primary in that the latter is essentially an party election that selects a political party’s standard bearers in the general election, whereas a caucus is a meeting of party members in person where speeches are made and other party business might also arise.
The Iowa caucuses will be held at various precinct locations beginning at 7 p.m. local time that evening and on the Republican side will have two main items of business – holding a binding vote on the presidential nominee and selecting delegates to attend county conventions, part of a multistep process of selecting the delegates who will ultimately attend the national convention later this summer.
The contest awards delegates in proportion to votes received.
The Democrats will also hold caucuses on their side but more for the purposes of party business and delegate selection, the actual vote for the nominee will occur by mail and will be announced in early March. Selected delegates would be bound by the results of the mail-in voting.
Due to the length of time in making the delegate selection, Iowa has traditionally been towards the front of the line in the presidential nominating process. With some of the candidacies historically, such as George McGovern in 1972 (defying expectations with a credible second place finish) and Jimmy Carter four years later, Iowa was seen at least in part as a tipping point to propel them forward to the nomination and, in Carter’s case, the White House.
By contrast, George H.W. Bush won Iowa in 1980, claimed to have the ‘big mo’ (momentum) and then proceeded to lose that year’s race to the nomination to Ronald Reagan. Iowa has notably helped two incumbent presidents fend off significant primary challenges, with Ford narrowly winning over Reagan in 1976 and Carter racking up a stronger margin against challenger Ted Kennedy in 1980.
Where some presidential campaigns go to die in Iowa, photo thanks to Photo by Josh Berendes on Unsplash
As the following chart indicates, Iowa caucuses have portended the eventual Republican nominee 7/12 times, and 9/13 times on the Democratic side (the Democrats first having starting the caucuses in 1972, four years earlier than the Republicans).
Year
R Caucus Winner
Winner as Nominee
D Caucus Winner
Winner as Nominee
1972
not held that year
n/a
Uncommitted, then Edmund Muskie
No, George McGovern 2nd
1976
Gerald Ford
Yes, Reagan close 2nd
Uncommitted, then Jimmy Carter
Yes
1980
George H.W. Bush
No, Reagan close 2nd
Jimmy Carter
Yes, wide margin over Kennedy
1984
Ronald Reagan
Effectively unopposed
Walter Mondale
Yes
1988
Bob Dole
No
Richard Gephardt
No
1992
George H.W. Bush
Yes, Caucuses not contested
Tom Harkin
No
1996
Bob Dole
Yes
Bill Clinton
Effectively Unopposed
2000
George W. Bush
Yes
Al Gore, Jr.
Yes
2004
George W. Bush
Effectively Unopposed
John Kerry
Yes
2008
Mike Huckabee
No
Barack Obama
Yes
2012
Richard Santorum
No, Romney close 2nd
Barack Obama
Effectively Unopposed
2016
Rafael “Ted” Cruz
No
Hillary Clinton
Yes, Sanders nearly tied
2020
Donald Trump
Yes
Peter Buttigieg
Buttigieg, by delegates, Bernard Sanders, by votes
This year, however, the Iowa vote might not be as much of a portent of the election winner as much as following the overall national polling which suggests that former President Donald Trump is anywhere from 30 to 50 percentage points ahead of his nearest GOP rivals in the country as a whole. On the state level, the polling suggests Trump has at least 50% of the vote, with former Florida Governor Ronald DeSantis around 15%, and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley with slightly higher support. In terms of local endorsements, DeSantis won the endorsement of Governor Kim Reynolds as well as a signficant number of state legislators and evangelical leaders, while members of the congressional delegation have shied away from aligning with any of the candidates.
Last year’s Iowa Straw Poll, unscientific but widely seen as indicative of overall voter sentiment, placed Donald Trump with the most votes at 42.47%, followed by Ron DeSantis (15.31%), Tim Scott (11.09%), and Vivek Ramaswamy (9.37%). Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley was well back at slightly under 4%. DeSantis is seen as having a good ground game in visiting all 99 counties, dubbed “the full Grassley” after the long time Senator who held constituency meetings annually in all the state’s counties.
The final Des Moines Register poll showed Trump just shy of 50%, DeSantis basically the same at 16% and Hailey up to 20%, indicating that she had gained the most ground during the campaign. It should be noted that the poll has had some significant predictive ability in the caucuses, but some misses as well, for instance correctly predicting Barack Obama’s initial 2008 win over Hillary Clinton but not predicting Ted Cruz’s win in 2016 over Donald Trump.
The following map will not actually be shaded this way, (as Trump is expected to win most of the counties), but serves as a rough guide to the places where DeSantis and Haley need to do especially well in order to make second place and keep momentum going forward.
Color most of the map Trumpian red for first place, the brown (DeSantis) and the green (Haley) is for 2nd place
Iowa as a whole has trended more Republican over the last two presidential campaigns, although the darker shades of Republican red (on the conventional general election maps) masking a rural/urban divide where Des Moines, and Sioux Falls have trended more towards the Democratic Party, and Waterloo and Davenport have remained solid Democratic strongholds.
The urban counties are those that Florida Senator Marco Rubio carried in the state’s 2016 caucuses, the same counties where Nikki Haley (green-shaded) will at least need to place a solid second to entrench that status going forward to other primaries.
Many of the central counties, some towards the northwest, north central and south central, are where prior more evangelical-based candidates such as Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz did well in their respective 2008, 2012 and 2016 campaigns, and where Ron DeSantis (brown-shaded) would need to place strongly in to remain discernably in second place overall to former President Trump. The Sioux City northwest section might end up being pivotal in the race for second, this was an area where both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz did relatively well in and where the same dynamics between Haley and DeSantis could play out.
Trump could win close to, if not all 99 counties at more than 50 percent support. The red-shaded Fremont county at the very southwestern corner of the map above was indicative of the part of the state where he did the most strongly in 2016, even as he narrowly lost the state to Ted Cruz.
So where will the road go through the GOP Caucus and Iowa and potentially beyond?
For Donald Trump – while there has been some speculation as to whether or not he will make 50% of the vote, the fact remains that if he does not, virtually all polls put him over 40%, where for context the highest Iowa GOP caucus total in an open contest (without an incumbent President) the previous record was George W. Bush’s 41% in 2000. If he can’t beat 41%, that might be construed as a sign of weakness, otherwise he can claim to have set a new record. According to the Des Moines Register poll, enthusiasm for his campaign runs highest of all candidates, (49% extremely enthusiastic, 39% very enthusiastic and 82% firmly committed) which likely makes the wintry weather less of a factor for his final numbers. (Thanks to NBC for making the full .pdf available.)
For Ron DeSantis – the key will be to hold onto second place, consistent with broad expectations, and there are some indications he can still do this despite the late polling. showing Haley inching ahead. The same Des Moines Register poll had more modest levels of ethusiasm, 62% extremely or very ethusiastic, but still far ahead of Nikki Haley’s extremely or very ethusiastic measure at 39%. The best case scenario at this point would likely be to at poll within 10 points of Trump, the next best would be to poll 10 points ahead of Haley if still far behind Trump, the third best would be to poll a few points ahead of Haley, then tie Haley or something close to a tie (say within 2 percentage points), the worst case scenario would be to lose second spot by more than 2 points, which would likely have adverse effects on fundraising and momentum going forward. To any extent that he exceeds opinion poll numbers, expect his campaign to spin this as a win. According to the recent-most Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) road condition map, the crucial areas in the rural north have more drivable roads, another plus factor where DeSantis will likely need to secure a large number of his votes to secure second place.
Obligatory summer farm photo of Iowa, complete with barn and cornfield Photo by Kelcy Gatson on Unsplash
For Haley – best case scenario at this point is run 10 points within Trump or, failing that, 5-10 points ahead of DeSantis to dethrone him as the main alternative to Trump, and benefit from momentum, including fundraising, going forward, especially with New Hampshire. A tie could still be spun as a win, since she discernably gained the most ground in opinion poll surveys. Any less than 2-3 percentage ponits behind DeSantis, however, and that could alter the narrative of her as the main alternative to Trump as the race moves to New Hampshire. She will likely poll in the same urban areas of the state where Marco Rubio did well in 2016, however some of those areas, i.e. Cedar Rapids, are where roads are most adversely affected by the weather. If the race for second is tight, this could help DeSantis more.
The bottom line from this race for 2024 is that Trump remains the favorite for the Republican nomination, the race for the GOP-Trump alternative being far less clear. Trump will ulimately benefit the longer this lack of clarity persists. He also benefits if the main alternative has less cross-over appeal within the party, which judging by both state and national polls of Republicans, would appear to be Haley, not DeSantis. However – the harder Trump attacks Haley, that might risk giving some more moderate general election voters pause. If DeSantis preserves standing as the main alternative to Trump, he can potentially take more votes away from the former President in a primary and potentially deny him the nomination, but Trump’s attacks on DeSantis “DeSanctimonious” could potentially help him in a general election.
So the dynamics are multi-layered, but the weather and the backdrop remain the same as they have been for the past decade or so. A hard road for the Trump alternative, a polarizing, cold climate politically and seemingly impassable roads in Washington to get much of anything done, whether it is something major like immigration or something temporary like a continuing resolution.
Usually my predictions are based on one outcome, i.e. candidate a wins or not, and I mark my prediction right or wrong. In this case, however, I don’t see it as a mark of political acumen to predict a race where polls have consistently indicated the same likely winner over many months. Therefore, I am predicting three things, all of which have to be met for me to consider calling this race correctly.
Trump wins at least at the mid-40s if not over 50%
DeSantis and Haley are within 2 points of each other and both either spin it as a tie, or surpassing expectations
Both continue forward without suspending their campaigns prior to New Hampshire
