Update 10.30 pm: At this point 90% + of the vote is in. Donald Trump is slightly over 50%. DeSantis is slightly ahead of Haley, outside my predicted margin of 2%, although that may tighten. The following map is for second place, Trump appears to have won all 99 counties. The lighter shaded areas indicate where the vote is less than 80% in. Brown-shaded is for DeSantis, green-shaded for Haley. The counties with stripes denote larger urban centers. As predicted, Haley did well in urban centers but not as well as she likely needed to, as DeSantis is narrowly ahead in the largest county, Polk, where the capital Des Moines is located. DeSantis also did well in the critical northwest section that promised to be a battleground of sorts for second place. At this point, it appears that DeSantis is on track to outperform polling expectations and place second, albeit not by a lot. Haley still has some vote outstanding in Waterloo (Black Hawk) and Cedar Rapids (Linn) which might help keep the distance between her and DeSantis < 2%. Map is as of 10.15 pm, so does not convey real-time results, more for purposes of illustrating where each candidate’s respective strength is.

Update 8.17 pm: Very preliminary returns, as expected race has been called for Trump. When I post this it will likely still have 95% of precincts and votes still outstanding. Thus far race looks like a nail bitter for the crucial second place with Haley and DeSantis seesawing back and forth between 2nd & 3rd. DeSantis is doing somewhat better in the northwest section of the state and a shade better than I would have expected in the urban areas. Trump might fall below 50%. I am curious if there have been any empirical studies on the psychology of Iowa Caucus goers voting in real time if they are aware that a race has already been called. It appears the answer is no and no, i.e. I can’t seem to find any empirical studies at first glance and no calling a race does not, at this point, appear to have changed much minds if Trump’s % is slightly falling, as opposed to rising.

The 2024 U.S. election year kicks off with the Republican Iowa caucuses, a quadrennial event going back to 1976 for that party, and touted as first in the nation in the presidential selection process.  Iowa caucuses have had some success in predicting eventual nominees, although in this instance the true race may be for second place, while the cold sub-zero temperatures raise questions as to overall turnout.

The caucus date also falls on the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday, observed the third Monday each January. This happened previously with the Iowa Caucuses in 2004. While the Republican Party initially set the date, (some claiming it was an accident or oversight), and there was some concern that the ‘first-in-the-nation’ caucus might divert a fair amount of national attention from the holiday itself, the state Democratic Party ultimately ended up chosing the same date for their caucuses and pledged to honor the Civil Rights leader’s legacy during the meetings.

A caucus differs from a primary in that the latter is essentially an party election that selects a political party’s standard bearers in the general election, whereas a caucus is a meeting of party members in person where speeches are made and other party business might also arise. 

The Iowa caucuses will be held at various precinct locations beginning at 7 p.m. local time that evening and on the Republican side will have two main items of business – holding a binding vote on the presidential nominee and selecting delegates to attend county conventions, part of a multistep process of selecting the delegates who will ultimately attend the national convention later this summer. 

Monday, January 15th	Iowa GOP Precient Caucuses
Saturday, Februrary 13th	Iowa Caucus County Convention
Saturday, April 6th	Iowa Republican Party District Conventions
Saturday, May 4th	Iowa State Republican Party Convention

The contest awards delegates in proportion to votes received.

The Democrats will also hold caucuses on their side but more for the purposes of party business and delegate selection, the actual vote for the nominee will occur by mail and will be announced in early March.  Selected delegates would be bound by the results of the mail-in voting.

Due to the length of time in making the delegate selection, Iowa has traditionally been towards the front of the line in the presidential nominating process.  With some of the candidacies historically, such as George McGovern in 1972 (defying expectations with a credible second place finish) and Jimmy Carter four years later, Iowa was seen at least in part as a tipping point to propel them forward to the nomination and, in Carter’s case, the White House. 

By contrast, George H.W. Bush won Iowa in 1980, claimed to have the ‘big mo’ (momentum) and then proceeded to lose that year’s race to the nomination to Ronald Reagan.  Iowa has notably helped two incumbent presidents fend off significant primary challenges, with Ford narrowly winning over Reagan in 1976 and Carter racking up a stronger margin against challenger Ted Kennedy in 1980.

As the following chart indicates, Iowa caucuses have portended the eventual Republican nominee 7/12 times, and 9/13 times on the Democratic side (the Democrats first having starting the caucuses in 1972, four years earlier than the Republicans).

Year	R Caucus Winner	Winner as Nominee		D Caucus Winner	Winner as Nominee
1972	not held that year	n/a		Uncommitted, then Edmund Muskie	No, George McGovern 2nd
1976	Gerald Ford	Yes, Reagan close 2nd		Uncommitted, then Jimmy Carter	Yes
1980	George H.W. Bush	No, Reagan close 2nd		Jimmy Carter	Yes, wide margin over Kennedy
1984	Ronald Reagan	Effectively unopposed		Walter Mondale	Yes
1988	Bob Dole	No		Richard Gephardt	No
1992	George H.W. Bush	Yes, Caucuses not contested		Tom Harkin	No
1996	Bob Dole	Yes		Bill Clinton	Effectively Unopposed
2000	George W. Bush	Yes		Al Gore, Jr.	Yes
2004	George W. Bush	Effectively Unopposed		John Kerry	Yes
2008	Mike Huckabee	No		Barack Obama	Yes
2012	Richard Santorum	No, Romney close 2nd		Barack Obama	Effectively Unopposed
2016	Rafael “Ted” Cruz	No		Hillary Clinton	Yes, Sanders nearly tied
2020	Donald Trump	Yes		Peter Buttigieg	Buttigieg, by delegates, Bernard Sanders, by votes

This year, however, the Iowa vote might not be as much of a portent of the election winner as much as following the overall national polling which suggests that former President Donald Trump is anywhere from 30 to 50 percentage points ahead of his nearest GOP rivals in the country as a whole.  On the state level, the polling suggests Trump has at least 50% of the vote, with former Florida Governor Ronald DeSantis around 15%, and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley with slightly higher support.  In terms of local endorsements, DeSantis won the endorsement of Governor Kim Reynolds as well as a signficant number of state legislators and evangelical leaders, while members of the congressional delegation have shied away from aligning with any of the candidates.

Last year’s Iowa Straw Poll, unscientific but widely seen as indicative of overall voter sentiment, placed Donald Trump with the most votes at 42.47%, followed by Ron DeSantis (15.31%), Tim Scott (11.09%), and Vivek Ramaswamy (9.37%).  Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley was well back at slightly under 4%. DeSantis is seen as having a good ground game in visiting all 99 counties, dubbed “the full Grassley” after the long time Senator who held constituency meetings annually in all the state’s counties.

The final Des Moines Register poll showed Trump just shy of 50%, DeSantis basically the same at 16% and Hailey up to 20%, indicating that she had gained the most ground during the campaign. It should be noted that the poll has had some significant predictive ability in the caucuses, but some misses as well, for instance correctly predicting Barack Obama’s initial 2008 win over Hillary Clinton but not predicting Ted Cruz’s win in 2016 over Donald Trump.

The following map will not actually be shaded this way, (as Trump is expected to win most of the counties), but serves as a rough guide to the places where DeSantis and Haley need to do especially well in order to make second place and keep momentum going forward. 

Iowa as a whole has trended more Republican over the last two presidential campaigns, although the darker shades of Republican red (on the conventional general election maps) masking a rural/urban divide where Des Moines, and Sioux Falls have trended more towards the Democratic Party, and Waterloo and Davenport have remained solid Democratic strongholds.

The urban counties are those that Florida Senator Marco Rubio carried in the state’s 2016 caucuses, the same counties where Nikki Haley (green-shaded) will at least need to place a solid second to entrench that status going forward to other primaries.

Many of the central counties, some towards the northwest, north central and south central, are where prior more evangelical-based candidates such as Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz did well in their respective 2008, 2012 and 2016 campaigns, and where Ron DeSantis (brown-shaded) would need to place strongly in to remain discernably in second place overall to former President Trump. The Sioux City northwest section might end up being pivotal in the race for second, this was an area where both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz did relatively well in and where the same dynamics between Haley and DeSantis could play out.

Trump could win close to, if not all 99 counties at more than 50 percent support. The red-shaded Fremont county at the very southwestern corner of the map above was indicative of the part of the state where he did the most strongly in 2016, even as he narrowly lost the state to Ted Cruz.

So where will the road go through the GOP Caucus and Iowa and potentially beyond?

For Donald Trump – while there has been some speculation as to whether or not he will make 50% of the vote, the fact remains that if he does not, virtually all polls put him over 40%, where for context the highest Iowa GOP caucus total in an open contest (without an incumbent President) the previous record was George W. Bush’s 41% in 2000. If he can’t beat 41%, that might be construed as a sign of weakness, otherwise he can claim to have set a new record. According to the Des Moines Register poll, enthusiasm for his campaign runs highest of all candidates, (49% extremely enthusiastic, 39% very enthusiastic and 82% firmly committed) which likely makes the wintry weather less of a factor for his final numbers. (Thanks to NBC for making the full .pdf available.)

For Ron DeSantis – the key will be to hold onto second place, consistent with broad expectations, and there are some indications he can still do this despite the late polling. showing Haley inching ahead. The same Des Moines Register poll had more modest levels of ethusiasm, 62% extremely or very ethusiastic, but still far ahead of Nikki Haley’s extremely or very ethusiastic measure at 39%. The best case scenario at this point would likely be to at poll within 10 points of Trump, the next best would be to poll 10 points ahead of Haley if still far behind Trump, the third best would be to poll a few points ahead of Haley, then tie Haley or something close to a tie (say within 2 percentage points), the worst case scenario would be to lose second spot by more than 2 points, which would likely have adverse effects on fundraising and momentum going forward. To any extent that he exceeds opinion poll numbers, expect his campaign to spin this as a win. According to the recent-most Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) road condition map, the crucial areas in the rural north have more drivable roads, another plus factor where DeSantis will likely need to secure a large number of his votes to secure second place.

For Haley – best case scenario at this point is run 10 points within Trump or, failing that, 5-10 points ahead of DeSantis to dethrone him as the main alternative to Trump, and benefit from momentum, including fundraising, going forward, especially with New Hampshire. A tie could still be spun as a win, since she discernably gained the most ground in opinion poll surveys. Any less than 2-3 percentage ponits behind DeSantis, however, and that could alter the narrative of her as the main alternative to Trump as the race moves to New Hampshire. She will likely poll in the same urban areas of the state where Marco Rubio did well in 2016, however some of those areas, i.e. Cedar Rapids, are where roads are most adversely affected by the weather. If the race for second is tight, this could help DeSantis more.

The bottom line from this race for 2024 is that Trump remains the favorite for the Republican nomination, the race for the GOP-Trump alternative being far less clear. Trump will ulimately benefit the longer this lack of clarity persists. He also benefits if the main alternative has less cross-over appeal within the party, which judging by both state and national polls of Republicans, would appear to be Haley, not DeSantis. However – the harder Trump attacks Haley, that might risk giving some more moderate general election voters pause. If DeSantis preserves standing as the main alternative to Trump, he can potentially take more votes away from the former President in a primary and potentially deny him the nomination, but Trump’s attacks on DeSantis “DeSanctimonious” could potentially help him in a general election.

So the dynamics are multi-layered, but the weather and the backdrop remain the same as they have been for the past decade or so. A hard road for the Trump alternative, a polarizing, cold climate politically and seemingly impassable roads in Washington to get much of anything done, whether it is something major like immigration or something temporary like a continuing resolution.

Usually my predictions are based on one outcome, i.e. candidate a wins or not, and I mark my prediction right or wrong. In this case, however, I don’t see it as a mark of political acumen to predict a race where polls have consistently indicated the same likely winner over many months. Therefore, I am predicting three things, all of which have to be met for me to consider calling this race correctly.

1. Trump wins at least at the mid-40s if not over 50%
2. DeSantis and Haley are within 2 points of each other and both either spin it as a tie, or surpassing expectations
3. Both continue forward without suspending their campaigns prior to New Hampshire