Even though New Hampshire is holding their ‘first in the nation’ presidential primaries today for both the Democratic and Republican parties, there is a sense that both parties have largely decided that this will be a Biden versus Trump rematch. Since thus far only Iowa (a caucus, not a primary) has already voted, this raises the specter that for the first half of 2024, the supposedly tumultuous year for democracy, primaries might be more pro-forma and anti-climactic, the winners already decided, with national attention perhaps focused elsewhere, i.e. court or congressional battles.
On the Republican side, while twenty-four names plus one write-in line appear on the ballot, the race is between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and former President Donald Trump. Haley has been hoping for an upset win where most polls show her trailing by between 15 to 25 points. While Governor Ron DeSantis’ withdrawal might have moved (a small number of) voters over to Trump in the state, DeSantis’ endorsement of Trump was likely more impactful nationally in giving Trump the sense of inevitability of becoming the nominee. Nationally Haley is barely able to crack double digits against Trump’s two-thirds to three quarters of Republican support.
The Haley team is hoping that a strong showing, beating expectations in New Hampshire, will help set the stage for the February 24th primary in her home state of South Carolina, and then run competitive with Trump in the (oftentimes pivotal) early March Super Tuesday contests. (Perhaps aided by any legal troubles Trump might encounter.) While Haley has secured the endorsement of New Hampshire’s Governor, Chris Sununu and is seen as having attracted a coalition of traditional Republicans, Never Trumpers and some cross over independent voters (primaries are not open to Democratic-affiliated voters), significant obstacles remain going forward. The South Carolina primary is another month away, where it might be challenging to maintain momentum. Nevada will hold a primary earlier on February 6th, and Trump is far ahead in a state where he has a significant business presence. South Carolina is also an uphill battle for Haley, where Trump has secured the endorsement of most of the congressional delegation, the two Senators and the incumbent Governor, and where he leads by over twenty points in most recent polls.
So, while Governor Haley has taken a somewhat more combative tone in the New Hampshire primary, and where this race bears the most watching tonight, to see at least if she exceeds expectations, going forward it appears that she would need to do some very persuasive arm twisting in her home state alone to stay viable even there. My prediction here is that she her tally is within 15 – 25 points of Trump, (no surprise like John McCain’s 2000 upset, in other words), and she drops out by Nevada.
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Meanwhile, the Democratic Primary …
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side … there are twenty-one names plus the write-in on the Democratic New Hampshire primary ballot, but President Biden’s name will not listed be among them. He is waging a write-in campaign instead. New rules from the Democratic National Committee sought to have greater diversity in earlier voting contests in the presidential primaries and officially moved, (where the DNC is concerned), South Carolina as the first state to hold an official primary contest. New Hampshire Democrats have pushed back against the proposal and noted that their state law provides for a presidential primary to be held at least seven days prior to any other state. The state Democratic Party affirmed their date, citing state law, prompting push back from the DNC, saying that they cannot accept this exercise as determinative of delegate selection to this summer’s national convention, using in some correspondence the word ‘meaningless,’ prompting yet more pushback from state officials.
The end result is that while Biden is not officially campaigning in New Hampshire, a number of New Hampshire Biden supporters staged a write-in campaign for the incumbent President anyway. It might be noted that this is not the first time a state’s Democratic primary came in conflict with the DNC, the most notable instances perhaps being that of Michigan and Florida in 2008, where those states moved their primaries up to January 15th and 29th, respectively. Both delegations were initially halved that summer as a result, before finally being restored to full voting rights on the eve of that year’s convention. One would be hard pressed to argue that the dustup had an adverse effect on Democratic chances that fall, with Barack Obama carrying MIchigan by nearly seventeen percentage points, Florida was closer but still decisive at just under a three percent margin for Obama.
Biden’s two main challengers are author and activist Marriane Williamson, who previously ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 and Minnesota Congressman Dean Philips, seen as more moderate and in some circles as a more serious challenger to the incumbent president. Williamson aligns more on the progressive left, with calls for such reforms to address poverty, the environment and large investments in education and healthcare. Phillips, from Minnesota’s suburban 3rd Congressional District, has tacked centrist on such issues as Israel and belongs to the moderate Problem Solvers Caucus in Congress. His campaign has been arguably hampered by a series of missteps, however, including criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris, (where he later apologized) and some flirtation with a White House bid under the No Labels banner, even if he later ruled it out.
Nationally Williamson and Phillips are well back in the single digits in polling where Biden far outpaces them with close to two-third to three quarters support. In New Hampshire, however, Biden is polling in the 50s/60s range whereas Phillips’ support ranges anywhere from 6 – 32% based on the current month’s polling. If the narrative on the Republican side shifts towards a Trump coronation, which it will likely do if he beats Haley by 20% or more, the story tonight might be Biden’s numbers, especially should they be less than 60%, by any standards low for an incumbent president. While there is a discernable hunger for a 2024 contest other than a Biden/Trump rematch, New Hampshire is likely not the state to deliver a harsh verdict to Biden given that the younger, more diverse cross section of voters polling suggests is more dissatisfied with the Biden candidacy are not as represented in this state.
Thus, it is unlikely that we will hear from Biden a 1968 Lyndon Johnson speech “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President” after LBJ won only half of the vote in that year’s NH primary against (also from Minnesota) Senator Eugene McCarthy. Phillips simply does not have the name recognition and profile that McCarthy did, nor are the Democrats as divided as they were in 1968 to give Biden immediate pause. But a low level, i.e., <60%, could certainly harm Biden.
New Hampshire only saw an incumbent President defeated once in their primaries, with Harry Truman losing to Tennessee Senator Eastes Kefauver in 1952 (and hastening his withdrawal from the race). More recently, Jimmy Carter won only 48% when he ran against Senator Edward Kennedy for renomination, although given Kennedy was from a neighboring state, that 48% was seen as a more decisive victory. On the Republican side, Nixon only won 68% in 1972, in his bid for renomination, although his neither of his opponents had a high profile and he won the general in a landslide. Ford (50% in 1976) and Bush Sr., (53% in 1992) fought contested primaries, however, and that threshold of support augured badly for their re-election bids later on. Biden can always spin it as the difference as write-in, as opposed to fully engaged campaigning, but lacking any suspenseful narrative on the Republican side, he needs considerably more than 50% to shut down any underground campaign that his reelection bid is in serious trouble.
My prediction here is Biden gets at least 60% of the vote, and likely falls within the range of 60% – 75% to keep moving forward. Phillips and Williamson might remain in the race, but their overall polling stays mostly below 10%.
The irony of this exercise is that more likely than not, the expected tumultuous 2024 will start out quietly on the primary front, with both parties lining up behind their prospective tickets (unusually) early, with successive primaries already being a foregone conclusion, along with lower voter turnout and people largely tuning out until at least the summer conventions. Certainly litigation with the Republican frontrunner could upend that, although the attention would likely be on the courtroom, not the ballot box. We might reasonably expect polling for the general to show a dead heat, or with some polling with Trump ahead in the low/mid-single digits with third parties on the ballot. I would expect things to get more heated in the second half of the year, with some polling possibly changing at that point, so analysts and voters alike might appreciate a less intense primary season before the main event truly gets underway.