Buoyed by a stable vote share in the Halifax Region, Cape Breton and the Southern Shore, Ian Rankin’s Liberal government is expected to retain power after today’s vote, despite losing support elsewhere in a race that has tightened in the past several weeks.

In particular, the ridings of Lunenburg and Lunenburg West may end up being the crucial tipping point ridings for the Liberals. These bell weather ridings have backed the plurality winner in the last 5 elections.

The Progressive Conservatives are expected to pick up 5 seats, 3 in the Fundy Region, 1 in Central Nova and one in the suburban Halifax area. They are also expected to retain the 2 seats won in byelections since the last election, one each in Fundy and suburban Halifax. It is expected that their vote share will moderately decline in Cape Breton, but with only the loss of one seat where the incumbent left their caucus. The Halifax region will see a relatively stable PC vote share with all incumbents expected to be returned.

The NDP will preserve their vote share, largely concentrated in the central Halifax/Dartmouth area in addition to one seat in Cape Breton. The fact that the NDP did not significantly expand their support in the Halifax region will be one of the main factors in the Liberals retaining a plurality.

Barring any power shift in by-elections (a recent case in point being nearby Prince Edward Island where the minority PC government picked up a seat to achieve majority status), it is anticipated that Rankin will retain power with possible NDP support and the likely prospect of a return to the polls in the next couple of years.

Overall the result is expected to be

Liberal 38.55% 27 Seats

PC 36.95% 23 Seats

NDP 21.26% 5 Seats

Green 2.35%

Other 0.89% (including the Atlantica Party and Independents)