Miramichi-Neguac – Liberal hold

Southwest Miramichi – Bay du Vin – likely PC hold due to collapse in support People’s Party which polled strong in 2020, but with an outside chance for Liberal pickup

Incumbent Filemon Vela Jr., D, vacated the seat at the end of March to take a position at a lobbying firm. This area in Texas has been trending more Republican, and Joe Biden carried this congressional seat in the presidential vote by less than 5 points. A decade earlier, both Democratic presidential and congressional candidates routinely carried this area by a 60-40 margin, but this significantly narrowed in 2020 to a smaller 14 point win for Vela and smaller still for Biden, south Texas being one of the more noted areas in the country where Donald Trump grew his support considerably over 2016.

Mayra Flores is representing the Republicans, and Dan Sanchez the Democrats. However this is a nonpartisan blanket primary where two other candidates, Democrat Rene Coronado and Republican Juana Cantu-Cabrera are also on the ballot, raising the possibility that if no candidate wins a majority of votes, it will go to a runoff prior to the November midterms.

Regardless of a runoff or not, it is expected that Mayra Flores will pick up this currently constituted seat for the Republicans. She is also the designated November Republican nominee against Democrat Vincente Gonzalez, who currently represents the 15th congressional district. However the November race will be fought on reconstituted lines widely considered to be more favourable to Democratic chances.

In the meantime, national Democrats have largely sat out this race, while the Republicans have significantly outraised their Democratic rivals by what CNN reported was a 20 to 1 margin.

Overall results anticipated to be PCs 78 and 38.15% of vote; NDP 33 and 23.89% of vote; L 12 and 26.78% of vote; Green 1 seat and 7.35% of vote, others 0 seats and 3.83% of vote

Despite winning more votes than the NDP, the Liberals end up with less seats due to the fact that they are the clear second place party in the 905, but they win no seats there

The PCs don’t bleed a lot of support to the more right-wing New Blue and Ontario parties, which are shut out of the legislature; they pick up several seats in Brampton, Essex and Oshawa, with an outside chance of gaining Niagara Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and St. Catharines, adding to the narrative of the PCs winning the blue collar, union vote.

The Liberals gain in Toronto and Kingston; retain Glengarry-Prescott-Russell due to a floor crossing, they have an outside chance of winning more seats in downtown Toronto such as Toronto Centre, Spadina-Fort York, University-Rosedale and Don Valley North; leader Steven Del Duca will ultimately fail to win Vaughan-Woodbridge, and coupled with a low showing in seats, it may cast his future leadership in doubt

The NDP are primarily on the defensive, with likely losses in Brampton, Essex, Oshawa and Toronto. The Welland Canal ridings of Niagara Centre and St. Catharines are anticipated to be closely fought, as well as a vote split in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, although currently they are projected to retain those three ridings. Andrea Horwath, after her 4th try for the Premier’s chair, may be replaced prior to the next election expected in 2026.

The Greens are expected to retain Guelph for leader Mike Schreiner, who had a very strong performance in the leaders’ debates. Although their popular vote total is expected to trend up, it will likely not translate into any additional seats. Parry Sound-Muskoka is likely to be the next closely fought riding for the Greens, who historically do very well there, (benefiting also from the lack of a Liberal candidate on the ballot) but the riding’s long history of PC wins gives them the slight edge on holding the riding.

Originally I was going to post a picture of Niagara Falls for this narrative but the falls’ turbulence really does not symbolize an election where the vast majority of ridings are retained by their respective parties. Even if there are raging undercurrents beneath the surface, (or a lot more turbulence in Ottawa, for that matter) this election is on the surface more like a tranquil lake in cottage country on a summer’s day. While about 3 times as many races will be closely fought, only 9 ridings out of 124 are actually projected to change hands (changing hands as defined by the results of the last vote – whether a general election or by-election, as opposed to floor crossings). Premier Doug Ford has, at least according to polling, not always commanded the affections of Ontario voters, but in a post-pandemic era where residents want some semblance of normalcy, it appears that a strong plurality are ready to return the Ford PCs for a second term, perhaps grudgingly giving them a passing grade in navigating through more turbulent waters since the last election.

Republican Connie Conway expected to win 60% + of vote over Democrat Lourin Hubbard on June 7th vote. Special election called after the resignation of Devin Nunes, R on January 1, 2022. Nonpartisan blanket primary was held April 5th.