Utah 2nd Congressional District consists of most of the rural (staunch Republican) western park of the state, also encompasses parts of urban Salt Lake City (including some of the most Democrat-leaning precincts in the state).
The office became vacant after the previous GOP Congressman, Chris Stewart, resigned due to his wife’s health issues.
Celeste Maloy, Stewart’s legal counsel, is the Republican nominee. Stewart himself endorsed Maloy, although her win was considered somewhat of an upset given that several of her rivals had high name recognition, including Greg Hughes, former Speaker of the Utah House of Representatives (lost at the convention); former State Representative Becky Edwards (lost in primary, seen as fairly moderate) and Bruce Hough, prominent GOP official at the state and national levels (also lost in primary).
Maloy polled very strongly in the primary from the southern, more rural part of the district (in contrast to Edwards, winning in the Salt Lake City area and Hough, winning in the northern part of the district in Tooele County). Maloy herself is from Iron County having worked as a soil conservationist for the Department of Agriculture, as well as an attorney for Washington County before joining Stewart’s office as his chief legal counsel in D.C. and is widely seen as someone familiar with the needs of the rural part of her district.
Democratic nominee Kathleen Riebe, from Salt Lake City, is the Minority Whip in the State Senate, representing the 15th district and has held a number of different jobs ranging from truck driver to police dispatcher prior to her current career in education. She has been seen as running a vigorous campaign mirroring Democratic issues nationally such as abortion, education, the economy and democracy, among others.
The district remains overwhelming Republican, and it is unlikely to change, although the race may end up being closer, given a widely recongized Democratic tendency in recent special elections to overpreform at the polls. One poll suggests a 9 point Republican lead. Anything under a 10 point margin could be considered a victory of sorts by Democrats, given that the 2022 Congressional Republican margin was almost 26 points, and in 2020 President Donald Trump carried the district by some 17 points.
The race, probably the last major one for 2023 before the country moves into an almost certainly tumultuous 2024, offers very little in the way of portents for 2024. The Republican nominee might pull more from her strength as a well known local candidate in touch with local issues such as resource and land management in the rural areas. The Democratic nominee will likely perform well in the Salt Lake City area, running on a more national campaign, although this will likely not overcome the likely wide margins the Republicans are expected to win in the rural parts of the distrct, the way the district is currently comprised.
Overall, chances of Republican victory 75%, with a greater than 10% margin rated at 50%.