The main upside to the Newsom campaign is the prospect of being replaced by staunch conservative Los Angeles talk show host Larry Elders, which has likely contributed to a widening of the polling margin indicating that the recall effort would fail. Against a generic opposition candidate Newsom still had a very small polling margin against a recall, but as the prospect of an Elders governorship became more visible, the polls clearly started to shift.
A another advantage for Newsom comes from the fact that no plausible Democratic candidate alternative emerged on the second ballot question. (The recall effort consists of two separate questions, first, whether to recall the Governor and second, who the replacement would be. The first question must pass in order for the second one to be in play. No specified percentage is required to win on the second ballot.)
The risks for Newsom are that the opposition forces to incumbency are generally more motivated in an off year election. The constituency and support for Newsom is there, so turnout will be key. On a county-by-county level, I am projecting that Santa Barbara and Sacramento counties will be tipping point counties, that will effectively determine the end result of the recall. Two other large counties to watch will be San Diego and Ventura, which according to my model are trending slightly in favor of recall, but where Newsom can easily hang on even if they slightly back the initiative. If they trend towards Newsom instead, the recall effort will be resoundingly defeated.
As with most voting trends in California, Democratic support is expected to be concentrated towards the cost in the Los Angeles and metro-San Francisco areas, moving more inland to Sacramento. Support for the recall will likely be strongest in the interior and more northern areas of the state, with some of the larger suburban counties around Los Angeles and San Diego trending towards the recall by much narrower margins. In predicting a 10 point initiative defeat, instead of the almost 16 points that 538 projects, I am controlling for the shy conservative factor, an inherent anti-recall turnout disadvantage in an off-year election and a widespread consensus that Newsom will survive the recall, (including widespread dissemination of polling averages such as 538’s) which may further reduce anti-recall turnout.
Ultimately there may be more concerted efforts to review the recall mechanism, which has been on the California books for over a century as part of the early 20th century progressive movement. Efforts aimed at changing the mechanism, however, would have to weigh the downsides (questions such as whether the electorate’s will is being genuinely reflected if Elders should win to the Governorship by significantly fewer votes on the second question than votes to retain Newsom on the first ballot, theoretically quite possible) with the inbuilt advantages for the incumbent where he was in this case effectively able to draw a sharp contrast with a prospective replacement who many see as being less in step with mainstream opinion in the Golden State.
