Quick synopsis of race … PEI PC Premier Dennis King has a bare majority of 14 out of 27 seats and is riding and was last sitting, per Narrative Research poll, at 48 percent popularity … the Greens (having been neck and neck with the Liberals for much of the current legislative assembly) are now in second place in the same poll at 28 percent, with the Liberals back at 17 and the NDP slightly better than polling averages at 7 percent.

Cornwall Meadowbank is about a 15 minute drive from Charlottetown and has been the most reliable of Liberal ridings in the past 35 years, being the 1 seat to withstand the PC sweep in 2000. It is also worth noting that Green leader Peter Bevan-Baker’s riding is next door, and the Greens did place in second place in the last general election, in 2019. The previous incumbent, Heath MacDonald, ran and won election to the federal House of Commons earlier this year.

Despite the fact that the Liberals trail in third place with no permanent leader, the provincial Greens retain a considerable level of support despite their federal counterparts’ decline and the relative popularity of the governing PCs, this election will be a barometer of whether Islanders still support the two main parties alignment (Liberals and PCs) and on that basis, the Liberals should come out slightly ahead.

The main issue is health care and the perceived lack of access/availability of care. All candidates agree that the situation can improve, it is more a question of how and if how much blame the current PC government deserves. Also in the background is the Cornwall bypass issue, where the Trans-Canada highway was rerouted several years ago to bypass Cornwall proper, to mixed reviews with some residents supportive, and others opposed.

The race will ultimately come down to whether the PCs should add another seat to their thin majority, and if the answer is no, whether the Greens or Liberals would be the best party to represent the opposition. (Most observers don’t believe that the NDP has the polling support to win.) The PCs will probably keep this close and win one of the two top spots … but the riding has thus far resisted any blue wave. The opposition will probably coalesce between green and red and all indications are the riding stays red after the results are in this evening.