Why Virginia may not be the bell-weather it is hyped to be
If you look at the headlines for tomorrow’s off year elections, you might conclude that Virginia Governor’s race is the latest pivotal race in a near deadlocked 50/50 partisan divide for control of the national agenda. And indeed, there is probably some merit to the idea that whatever party wins the Virginia Governorship, it will shift some of the narrative towards the victorious party, validating certain strategies, being a barometer of sorts with the current political climate, voter enthusiasm and even, beneath the overall result, possibly show some continuing trends of such diverse, multilayered and frequently overlapping constituencies as suburban voters, blue collar workers and the Hispanic population.
But as some type of indicator as to what will happen in 2022 or 2024, the Virginia Governor’s race is more limited. The voting patterns of the Old Dominion have been remarkably stable at the Governor’s race, and no matter the victor tomorrow, it is likely that those trends will largely continue.
The only other jurisdiction in North America I can think of that almost deliberately votes for one party at the federal (Presidential) level and the opposite party at the state/provincial level is Ontario. If we look at all post World War II elections, there are less than 10 years out of 76 that the government of Queen’s Park was the same party as in charge of Ottawa.
Virginia’s case is somewhat more complex, with those contrarian tendencies developing more recently, but the pattern is nonetheless clear.
First the Governorship – like nearly all southern states, Virginia Democrats had a total lock on the Governor’s Mansion between the Reconstruction era and the Civil Rights era, in this particular instance between 1885 and 1969. In 1969, Republicans won that year’s election and the succeeding three (two of which coincided with the Republican presidency of Nixon and Ford), but then the trend of one party state/one party federal starts as they continue to hold the Governor’s mansion in the election of 1977 during the Carter administration. In 1981, the Governor’s mansion swings back to Democrats during the Reagan/Bush presidencies and the following three elections, and then two Republican wins during the Clinton presidency. Democrats repeat two wins during the George W. Bush presidency, then one Republican win during Obama’s first term. The only outlier where the Governorship went the same way as the Presidency was in 2013, with current Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe winning his first term that year.
It is further worth noting that the incumbent President’s party does not appear to be following any early portents in Virginia. For example, in 2001 Democrat Governor Mark Warner won the Governor’s mansion by a respectable if not overwhelming margin, but the Republicans made gains in the following year’s midterm elections for U.S. Congress. In 2013, Terry McAuliffe broke a 36-year trend of electing opposite parties, but this did not stop the Democrats from losing the Presidency three years later.
Finally, for the last three decades, no party has controlled the Governor’s mansion for more than 2 terms (an incumbent Governor cannot run for re-election). There might be something to be said about the 2013 outlier as supporting an overall trend towards a bluer state, but the state’s voting history for the Presidency suggests that broader Presidential trends are still a different set of gears than the state voting patterns.
Virginia has again a remarkable consistency of voting for President. From the Reconstruction Era through to the post World War II era, we see a nearly solid Democrat voting history with 1928 being the only exception. Beginning in 1952, the pattern completely flips and it is nearly solidly Republican for the next 54 years, the only exception being 1964. Beginning in 2008, there begins a string of four Democratic wins, the latest being the widest Democratic victory since 1944. One might argue here that at a state level, at least, the contrarian trend is less clear. Virginia voted Republican in 1992, for President, for example, and then Republican the following year for Governor, the same situation in 1996 and 1997.
The long view of the results, though, suggests that the strongest relationship by far is the party winning the Presidency in the previous year’s election (regardless of how Virginia voted) is more apt to lose Governor’s race a year later, in other words, a strong relation to previous Presidential results.
It may be that new trends may emerge, for instance comparisons might be made between the last GOP win in Virginia in 2009, when Bob McDonnell won by 17 points and a Glenn Youngkin (R) victory this year, which will most likely not even be half that margin. But that would have to be tempered by the fact that margins over recent decades have fluctuated for both parties.
Look for the following areas to flip giving Yougkin a victory – few areas on the Virginia map will change their colours outright, fading blue and darkening reds would drive most of the turnover – but south central counties near the capital, Richmond, and southeastern Virginia Beach may swap colours altogether.
But the evidence doesn’t support (at least not yet) the idea that as Virginia goes, so goes the nation. It is retroactive – more as the nation goes, Virginia will do the opposite next year.
Predictions
Glenn Youngkin, R 51.5% over Terry McAuliffe, D 48.2%
In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy faces a slightly closer challenge by Jack Ciattarelli, R, then polls suggest, probably a 49% – 45% win.
In Ohio’s 11th Congressional District in the Cleveland area, longtime incumbent Marcia Fudge, D, vacated her seat last year to accept an appointment as Joe Biden’s Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Shontel Brown, the Democratic standard bearer, is expected to easily retain the seat against Republican Laverne Gore, by around a 75% – 25% win.
In Ohio’s more southern 15th Congressional District, previous incumbent Republican Steve Stivers resigned to take a position with the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Republican Mike Carey is expected to win over Allison Russo, D, by around a 56%-44% margin.
In notable municipal races to be held tomorrow, either incumbents are largely looking to be returned or local voting tendencies will continue.
In the largest U.S. city, Eric Adams, D is expected to win over Curtis Sliwa, by approximately a 65%-30% margin in New York.
In upstate New York, incumbent Byron Brown, a Democrat who lost renomination to India Walton, is expected to retain his position as an Independent with some significant support from local Republicans.
Across Lake Erie, two term Detroit mayor Mike Duggan is expected to be reelected to a third term in a non-partisan race with Anthony Adams as his primary opponent.
In Miami, Republican incumbent Francis X. Suarez is expected to win re-election; as is incumbent Democrat Jacob Frey in Minneapolis and Democratic incumbent LaToya Cantrell in New Orleans.
In open races, it appears that in Atlanta two Democratic candidates, Councilman Andre Dickens will advance with Atlanta City Council President Felicia Moore to a runoff to be held November 30th, (where I predict Moore to succeed outgoing mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms).
In Boston, Michelle Wu is heavily favoured to win the open seat against challenger Annissa Essaibi George. In Cincinnati, Aftab Pureval is expected to win the mayoralty against veteran politician David Mann, a former mayor. Both are Democrats, but in an officially nonpartisan election. In Cleveland, Justin Bibb, in a runoff with Kevin Kelley, is expected to succeed current mayor Frank G. Jackson. In Pittsburgh, Democratic Ed Gainey is expected to win against Republican Tony Moreno. Rounding out the big city mayoralty contests, in Seattle, Bruce Harrell is expected to win against Lorena Gonzalez to succeed outgoing mayor Jenny Durkan in a non-partisan contest.