ERIC Votes … Election Predictions, Results and Analysis

Ford to be returned with majority, Official Opposition status continues to elude Liberals with less voter efficiency than NDP

David Peterson must be envious, Ford beat him by a handful of months in asking for an early election, 1990 vs. 2025, and the momentum is markedly different than those (for the time) turbulent dog days of summer in 1990 where ‘the writing was on the wall’ for Peterson’s defeat.

Ford’s clear call to defend Ontario against possible economic and political adversity, (or, depending on how one looks at it – the winter weather, low engagement) is translating to slightly higher polling numbers than was the case in 2022. While the Liberals appear to have returned to a discernible second in the popular vote, the NDP appear poised to retain the mantle of Official Opposition despite losing support over 2018 and 2022. Their support is more concentrated in parts of urban South Central Ontario (Hamilton, London, etc.), downtown Toronto and Northern Ontario than the Liberals, who are well ahead of the NDP in the 905, but scarcely in a position to flip any seats across Halton, Peel, York and Durham.

Here’s a summary of the seats to watch, starting with Windsor and moving towards Kenora.

Southwestern Ontario (London – Sarnia – Windsor) PCs well ahead in rural areas, NDP expected to retain London as discernible opposition to Ford, plus incumbency advantages … Windsor – Tecumseth remains blue, Liberal dropping out in Windsor West makes this a tight PC-NDP race with NDP’s Lisa Gretzky expected to pull out a narrow win (cousin-in-law of the famous hockey player).

Moving up the 401 – Midwestern Ontario including Kitchener-Waterloo and Guelph. Greens retain two ridings of Kitchener Centre and Guelph with advantages of incumbency, and (recent) voting history that supports both progressive and green candidacies. Rural and suburban areas expected to remain blue, except for the independent Bobby Ann Brady holding onto Haldimand – Norfolk. Waterloo remains NDP with veteran MPP Catherine Fife.

Turning onto the 403 and QEW – Hamilton and Niagara. Some close races expected in this region. NDP support erodes in Hamilton but expected to mostly retain the ridings they currently hold, with exception being Hamilton Centre where the contentious expulsion of current incumbent Sarah Jama from the NDP’s caucus is expected to cost them this seat, with the Liberals predicted to eke out a narrow win. Hamilton East – Stoney Creek is expected to remain blue; Hamilton Mountain is open after the NDP incumbent, Monique Taylor, is stepping down, which might be keenly contested with the Liberals, as is the more suburban Hamilton West – Ancaster – Dundas between the NDP and PCs.

Niagara will see the central ridings of St. Catharines and Niagara Centre (Welland) closely contested between the PCs and NDP (currently have the NDP incumbents narrowly retaining both, but barely), while the Niagara Falls and Niagara West (Lincoln) ridings remain reliably orange and blue, respectively. Both St. Catharines and Niagara Centre last voted PC in the 1970s, if the PCs flip either riding this means both a continued realignment with blue collar ridings trending PC and a stronger super majority for Ford than in 2022.

Over the Burlington Skyway – onto Halton and Peel. Halton is expected to remain blue in all four ridings.  A straight swing might suggest these are close over 2022, but these could end up being comfortable wins in all cases. With Peel the Brampton portion is expected to remain solidly blue with the advantages of incumbency. Mississauga is expected to vote (nearly) as a block (as it usually does), although I am projecting Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie to narrowly pick up the open Mississauga East – Cooksville seat and with her name recognition as former Mayor and MPP, resulting in close races elsewhere, particular the Streetsville and Erin Mills ridings (Streetsville being her former federal seat).

Continuing on the QEW and Gardiner Expressway – Etobicoke, Old City of York, Old City of Toronto … the Liberals are expected to retain the Beaches riding and might see some red vs. orange contests with Toronto Centre, Toronto-St. Paul’s, University-Rosedale, and Humber River-Black Creek.  If the NDP decline in support is fairly uniform in swinging towards the Liberals, the Humber River – Black Creek and St. Paul’s ridings flip red, despite the NDP incumbency advantages. The former York West (HR-BC) riding has a strong Liberal voting history, and the Liberals have a particularly strong candidate in St. Paul’s with journalist Stephanie Smyth. York South – Weston will be another race to watch, blue vs. orange with former NDP MPP Faisal Hasson attempting to win back his old seat which he lost to the Premier’s nephew, Michael Ford, in 2022 (and who subsequently opted not to run again in this election).

Taking a jog on the Don Valley Parkway/401 to North York and Scarborough. The Liberals are expected to hold onto their Don Valley East and West seats, the independent candidacy of current incumbent MPP (former PC) Vincent Ke might cost the PCs Don Valley North. The NDP dropping out of the (formerly PC) now open seat of Eglinton – Lawrence is expected to further help the Liberals in that riding, which is arguably the easiest seat for them to gain on a modest swing. Willowdale is expected to be close but with incumbent PC MPP, (and Tourism Minister) Stan Cho keeping the riding blue. The more suburban Scarborough seats – Agincourt, North, Rouge Park are expected to remain comfortably within the PC fold. Guildwood looks to remain a solid win for the Liberals, as is Southwest for the NDP. Centre will be close but with PC MPP David Smith likely to narrowly retain his riding.

Staying on the 401 (or getting back on the QEW, depending on traffic) – over to Durham. The PCs are expected to retain their seats immediately east of Toronto, with the closet race being in Ajax but remaining blue. The race to watch is Oshawa – NDP MPP Jennifer French, if the downward swing in NDP support is replicated here, is likely to lose this seat to the previous PC MPP for the riding, Jerry Ouelette.

Back west on the 401 to 400 or the 407 – York Region. All 9 ridings expected to remain PC, comfortably.  Outside of the southern rural sections of the province (any rural areas south of North Bay), this is the strongest (more suburban/exurban) region in the province for the PCs.

Further up the 401, jogging west on 26 to Owen Sound and then back east to Orillia, highway 11, looping around Lake Simcoe on highway 12 and taking 7 over to Peterborough – Central Ontario. Ten largely rural ridings remaining comfortably PC, with the possible exception of Peterborough -Kawartha (closer but still blue).  Barrie – Springwater – Oro – Medonte will be shaded a darker blue after Barrie’s second iteration of a popular mayor unsuccessfully seeking election as a Liberal to higher parliamentary office (Jeff Lehman, provincially in 2022, the first being Janice Laking, federally, 1993) is not on the ballot this year.

Getting back on the 401 towards Ottawa and Quebec – Eastern Ontario. Apart from Liberal Kingston, all other ridings are expectedly to remain comfortably PC except for the strong francophone Glengarry – Prescott – Russell seat, which is predicted to be a narrower PC win.

Taking the 417 towards Ottawa … A few closely contested races with all three parties in contention for at least some of the ridings.  Carleton is expected to remain in the PC column, Nepean has strong potential for a Liberal pickup after former PC MPP, Lise MacLeod opted not to run this year. Kanata Carleton is expected to be particularly close with Liberal MPP (and former MP) Karen McCrimmon narrowly hanging on after winning this seat in a byelection in 2023. Ottawa West – Nepean is also anticipated to be a close riding, with Chandra Pasma of the NDP expected to narrowly retain this riding after defeating the PC incumbent in 2022. Joel Harden, the NDP MPP for Ottawa Centre, is not running, the open seat will likely remain in NDP hands with former mayoral candidate Catherine McKenney winning the roughly same area in 2022’s respectable second place finish for the city’s top elected spot.

Back west with 417/17 and 60 to Muskoka, then north on 11. Northeastern Ontario. (The debate continues as to whether Muskoka is “Near North” or “North.”)  Regardless of how one thinks Muskoka should be classified, Graydon Smith is likely to keep the riding for the PCs by a bigger margin than in 2022 when Matt Richter almost pulled off an upset for the Greens. This year a Liberal candidate is in fact running, which will divide the non-PC vote. Despite being non-traditional PC ridings, Timmins, and Sault Ste. Marie (the latter being open) are expected to remain blue.  With Michael Mantha, incumbent MPP and formerly NDP, running in Algoma – Manitoulin, this might play spoiler for the NDP’s hopes to keep the riding. Timiskaming – Cochrane is also expected to be close, with veteran NDP MPP John Vanthof narrowly hanging on in a rural riding seen as more amendable to blue trends such as seen in Timmins, Kenora and Sault Ste. Marie.

Keeping on 11 (or 17), going west towards Manitoba – Northwest Ontario and (partly in another time zone) … the main races here are in Thunder Bay. Kevin Holland, PC MPP for TB – Atikokan, will likely have an easier time retaining his riding than Lise Vaugeois, in TB – Superior North, a former Liberal stronghold held by Michael Gravelle. The Liberal candidate running this time courted some controversy with prior remarks on social media made some years earlier, and while Brian Hamilton, currently a city councilor, has since apologized for those remarks, it remains to be seen if this negative publicity proves pivotal in a toss up race. 

So, in sum, solid PC win, Liberals likely to claim official party status but, suffering from less voting efficiency that the NDP, wider but not as deep, continue to remain in third place. Depending on economic and political conditions in the future, Ford may opt not to run for a fourth term, and history has clearly shown that third parties can potentially leap into first place (think Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberals, between 2011 and 2015), although third place might not be enough for Bonnie Crombie to retain her job. 

It so happens that 142 years ago to the day there was another provincial election held in Ontario, where Premier Oliver Mowat (L) was re-elected to a third term (out of 6 consecutive election wins).  While it seems doubtful that any first minister in Canada today could win 6 consecutive terms, (something that has never been replicated since in the province), a third term (also) for Ford shows some indications of political stability, the possibility of a return to longer tenures which the province hasn’t seen since the end of 42-consecutive years of PC rule in 1985.  One can certainly argue, though, that the third consecutive PC majority, (first third consecutive majority since booming post war 1951 (counting forward by party, or 1959, if considering 3rd term by individual Premier), out of 8 consecutive majorities by that party in total during the post war years) is actually a function of external volatility (i.e., Ontarioans see Ford as a strong leader equal to the current challenges) and that on the turn of a dime, the political currents beneath the surface, as shown in close races and ongoing realignments at the riding level, could result in more top level political volatility in the province in the years ahead.

** Correction – the original blog post incorrectly stated that St. Catharines last voted PC in 1971 … it was actually 1975. The Welland riding (now Niagara Centre) last voted PC in 1971 as originally stated.

PCs on track for a super majority government of 44 seats and 47% of the vote under incumbent Premier Tim Houston, their best showing since 1984 under then Premier John Buchanan

NDP largely hold their own in seats and popular vote from the previous 2021 election, with most of their support coming from central Halifax or Cape Breton Island

Liberals are projected to barely retain official party status in the Legislature, with the possibility that the leader, Zack Churchill, loses his Yarmouth seat. Their popular vote was as low as recently as 2006, (in the lower 20s), their seat count at 3 would be tied at a 99-year all-time low in the election of 1925 when Premier Ernest Howard Armstrong experienced a steep loss to Conservative Edgar Nelson Rhodes. This year they are predicted to keep 2 seats in the greater Halifax area and one on Cape Breton.

For the country as a whole, it remains to be seen if this is the beginning of a trend where conservative premiers go to the polls early, in anticipation of more upheaval from both Ottawa and Washington, D.C., and are not punished for an early election call. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is likely paying particularly close attention to this result.

The last three times the NDP won an initial mandate in Saskatchewan, 1944, 1971 and 1991, there was alot of CCF/NDP representation in the rural areas. This year, it appears that Carla Beck’s NDP will likely form government based almost completely on urban and far north representation. The map will still have alot of Saskatchewan Party green, representing rural areas in the southern half of the province.

At the outset of the campaign it was expected that the NDP would pick up urban support, especially in light of several by-election gains in August of 2023, but that the Saskatchewan Party was sufficiently ahead to hold onto power, perhaps easily. Successive polls have discernably put the NDP out in front, but unlike those prior elections where the NDP won an initial mandate, they are running fairly close with the incumbent Saskatchewan Party and are still likely under 50% of the popular vote. Tommy Douglas, Allan Blakeney and Roy Romanov all won power for their first mandate with over 50% of the vote and were at least 10 points ahead of any other party.

Thus any notion of an rural/urban divide would need to consider the fact that unlike other first time NDP wins, this is a fairly close race which is at least partly driving the urban/rural divide. At the same time, however, many of the ridings aren’t even close, with approximately 20 seats, all Saskatchewan Party rural seats, being decided by margins of over 15%, and another 20 seats, nearly all Saskatoon/Regina urban seats, being won by the NDP by at least the same 15% margin.

Only 9 seats are projected to be within 5%, 2 of them Saskatchewan Party rural seats and 7 NDP urban seats, including Regina – Wascana Plains and several eastern Saskatoon ridings. If the polling is off even slightly, it is certainly possible that incumbent Premier Scott Moe could be returned with a bare majority. Only a third of those 9 seats would in fact need to flip, based on my projections, for the Saskatchewan Party to be returned to power with a majority.

Projections

Despite photo finish in popular vote, NDP have advantages with reduced Green vote and greater voter efficiency in lower mainland, esp. Surrey.

The BC Conservatives are slated to have their first seat since 1975 (then the PC Party) in the provincial legislature, and their best showing in seat counts ever. The last time they won government outright (not part of the Liberal/PC Coalition Government in the 1940s) was 96 years ago, Simon Fraser Tolmie’s 1928 win, when the legislature was slightly more than half the size it is now. Thus this evening will likely be the best seat count on record for the party since 1903, (genesis of partisan contested BC elections) and the best popular vote share since 1928.

For the NDP, this would be the second back-to-back majority government in their history in B.C., the first one being in 1996 after winning power in 1991. They previously formed a government for the first time in 1972 under Premier Dave Barrett but were defeated for re-election in 1975. Much like their 1996 re-election, the NDP are likely looking at a much-reduced bare majority and a near tie in the popular vote (the BC Liberals actually won 2 percentage points more in the popular vote that year than the NDP). Their best showing both in terms of seats and popular vote, since contesting elections in 1933 as the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation, was in 2020 under the previous Premier, John Horgan.

Overall Vote Totals and Seats

Labour – 39% and 390 Seats

Conservative – 24% and 157 Seats

Reform – 16% and 2 Seats

Liberal Democrat – 11% and 59 Seats

Green – 5% and 1 Seat

Scottish Nationalist Party – 3% and 1 Seat

Other – 2% and 24 Seats

For a race to be counted as correctly predicted, BOTH the overall winner and the percentage votes for both major candidates has to be correct (% within +/- 10% of actual result).

Little action expected on the Democratic side, Biden projected to dominate with 80% of votes cast.

Lower turnout overall in Super Tuesday voting due to relative strength of front runners in both parties.

No predictions today as both projected winners, Biden, D and Trump, R far ahead in polls.

Watch for ‘uncommitted’ (purple shaded on map) and Haley support (green) for relative strength on map, even as both front runners might sweep all counties. A strong Haley showing, (i.e. furthering the narrative of a persistent anti-Trump faction in the GOP ahead of Super Tuesday) is around 25%. An “uncommitted” vote on the Democratic side of 10% or more would further raise concerns about Biden’s 2020 coalition hanging together, 20% or more would portend a particularly challenging situation from the standpoint of a general election. Both Trump and Biden will be compared to each other in this swing state to see who has relatively higher support in their respective party.

The other factor is relative turnout for each primary as a barometer of ethusiasm on each side. I would project Biden and the Ds might run a bit lower than turnout in the R primary since the incumbent’s party has less of a race, Haley has a higher national profile than Dean Phillips (Biden’s remaining opponent) and might profit with some additional interest from voters more motivated to oppose Trump.