Beck’s NDP appear likely to win, but Moe’s Saskatchewan Party has a path to re-election

The last three times the NDP won an initial mandate in Saskatchewan, 1944, 1971 and 1991, there was alot of CCF/NDP representation in the rural areas. This year, it appears that Carla Beck’s NDP will likely form government based almost completely on urban and far north representation. The map will still have alot of Saskatchewan Party green, representing rural areas in the southern half of the province.

At the outset of the campaign it was expected that the NDP would pick up urban support, especially in light of several by-election gains in August of 2023, but that the Saskatchewan Party was sufficiently ahead to hold onto power, perhaps easily. Successive polls have discernably put the NDP out in front, but unlike those prior elections where the NDP won an initial mandate, they are running fairly close with the incumbent Saskatchewan Party and are still likely under 50% of the popular vote. Tommy Douglas, Allan Blakeney and Roy Romanov all won power for their first mandate with over 50% of the vote and were at least 10 points ahead of any other party.

Perhaps an apt metaphor for the election Thanks to Ruvim Kerimov, Unsplash

Thus any notion of an rural/urban divide would need to consider the fact that unlike other first time NDP wins, this is a fairly close race which is at least partly driving the urban/rural divide. At the same time, however, many of the ridings aren’t even close, with approximately 20 seats, all Saskatchewan Party rural seats, being decided by margins of over 15%, and another 20 seats, nearly all Saskatoon/Regina urban seats, being won by the NDP by at least the same 15% margin.

Only 9 seats are projected to be within 5%, 2 of them Saskatchewan Party rural seats and 7 NDP urban seats, including Regina – Wascana Plains and several eastern Saskatoon ridings. If the polling is off even slightly, it is certainly possible that incumbent Premier Scott Moe could be returned with a bare majority. Only a third of those 9 seats would in fact need to flip, based on my projections, for the Saskatchewan Party to be returned to power with a majority.

Projections

SeatsPopular Vote
New Democratic Party3347.5%
Saskatchewan Party2845.25%
Saskatchewan United02.75%
Buffalo Party02%
Green Party01.75%
Other (incl. PC)00.75%

Liberals favoured for win in New Brunswick, but …

These are fairly close odds, given the overall lack of polling prior to the election and a number of tight races in urban areas that will determine the outcome. Regardless of who forms government, this is likely to be a close election in terms of number of seats won. The popular vote is likely to favour the Liberals by anywhere from 5-10 points, however their vote efficiency is less than the incumbent PCs (as attested to in 2018, winning the popular vote by close to 6 points but losing the election overall).

Formal political labels in elections were only used in New Brunswick starting in the election of 1935, since that time it has not been unprecedented for the province to align provincially to the party already holding power federally – the 2010 election with David Alward’s Progressive Conservatives being the most recent instance.

Thanks to Adam Nir, Unsplash

Perhaps more noteworthy is since the start of party elections in 1935, New Brunswick has historically elected fairly stable governments lasting at least two terms, with such well known Premiers as Louis Robichaud, Richard Hatfield and Frank McKenna. In the election of 2003, Bernard Lord’s governing PCs were returned with only a bare majority. Since that time, no successive government has won a back-to-back majority. It has also coincided with governments winning lesser majorities than the landslide sweeps of prior legislatures (including Frank McKenna’s 1987 complete shutout of the PCs and all other parties).

The result of this year’s election is projected to be (majority => 25)

SeatsPopular Vote
Liberals2645.5%
PCs2237.5%
Greens110.75%
Others06.25%

In this election, the closely fought ridings determining the ultimate outcome are likely (but perhaps not entirely) to be: Fredericton North (projected PC win); Fredericton Lincoln (projected Green win by leader David Coon); Kent North (projected Liberal win from Green); Miramichi Bay-Neguac and Miramichi East (both projected Liberal wins); Moncton Northwest (projected PC win); Moncton South (projected Liberal win); Saint John Harbour (projected Liberal win) and Tantramar (projected Liberal win from Green). With the close margin of error in just these ridings alone, it is definitely possible that the Greens could improve from the above projections by 2, the Liberals by 3, and the PCs by 5, the last possibility returning the PCs back to power with a majority government with the same seat count they currently have.

Eby and the NDP in BC claw back to a bare majority

Despite photo finish in popular vote, NDP have advantages with reduced Green vote and greater voter efficiency in lower mainland, esp. Surrey.

The BC Conservatives are slated to have their first seat since 1975 (then the PC Party) in the provincial legislature, and their best showing in seat counts ever. The last time they won government outright (not part of the Liberal/PC Coalition Government in the 1940s) was 96 years ago, Simon Fraser Tolmie’s 1928 win, when the legislature was slightly more than half the size it is now. Thus this evening will likely be the best seat count on record for the party since 1903, (genesis of partisan contested BC elections) and the best popular vote share since 1928.

For the NDP, this would be the second back-to-back majority government in their history in B.C., the first one being in 1996 after winning power in 1991. They previously formed a government for the first time in 1972 under Premier Dave Barrett but were defeated for re-election in 1975. Much like their 1996 re-election, the NDP are likely looking at a much-reduced bare majority and a near tie in the popular vote (the BC Liberals actually won 2 percentage points more in the popular vote that year than the NDP). Their best showing both in terms of seats and popular vote, since contesting elections in 1933 as the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation, was in 2020 under the previous Premier, John Horgan.

Overall Vote Totals and Seats

Projected Seat CountProjected Popular Vote
NDP4844%
Conservative4443%
Green110%
Other03%
Thanks to Louis Droege on Unsplash

Super Tuesday Action More on Republican Side, as Trump Expected to Dominate, Few Closer Races

TrumpHaley
Alabama81%19%
Alaska65%35%
Arkansas79%21%
California71%29%
Colorado73%27%
Maine64%36%
Massachusetts66%34%
Minnesota74%26%
North Carolina68%32%
Oklahoma78%22%
Tennessee76%24%
Texas75%25%
Utah58%42%
Vermont53%47%
Virginia57%43%

For a race to be counted as correctly predicted, BOTH the overall winner and the percentage votes for both major candidates has to be correct (% within +/- 10% of actual result).

Little action expected on the Democratic side, Biden projected to dominate with 80% of votes cast.

Lower turnout overall in Super Tuesday voting due to relative strength of front runners in both parties.

No suprises in Michigan vote today, although Haley and “Uncommitted” both bear watching

No predictions today as both projected winners, Biden, D and Trump, R far ahead in polls.

Watch for ‘uncommitted’ (purple shaded on map) and Haley support (green) for relative strength on map, even as both front runners might sweep all counties. A strong Haley showing, (i.e. furthering the narrative of a persistent anti-Trump faction in the GOP ahead of Super Tuesday) is around 25%. An “uncommitted” vote on the Democratic side of 10% or more would further raise concerns about Biden’s 2020 coalition hanging together, 20% or more would portend a particularly challenging situation from the standpoint of a general election. Both Trump and Biden will be compared to each other in this swing state to see who has relatively higher support in their respective party.

The other factor is relative turnout for each primary as a barometer of ethusiasm on each side. I would project Biden and the Ds might run a bit lower than turnout in the R primary since the incumbent’s party has less of a race, Haley has a higher national profile than Dean Phillips (Biden’s remaining opponent) and might profit with some additional interest from voters more motivated to oppose Trump.

Green is areas of Haley strength, Purple is where “uncommitted” expected to do better, although Trump and Biden may end up sweeping all counties. Thanks for Mapchart.