Final update: The Green Party’s Matt MacFarlane ended up being the vehicle for the protest vote, totals coming in at just under 50%. The PCs were able to retain close to 2/3rds of their 2021 share at just under 40%, but this was clearly a protest vote against the King government in Charlottetown, who at last polling still remained fairly popular province-wide and still enjoys a majority of 7 in the 27 seat legislature. The one takeaway is when provincial Liberals have interim leaders (as was also the case during the Kitchener byelection last November), and the NDP are not particularly strong, Greens tend to perform well, very well, in recent byelections, suggesting some measure of long-term staying power. This ironically could help Premier King, however, as the opposition is now even between 3 Liberal and 3 Green, both parties with interim leaders and tied in the polls, a divided an opposition as it could ever get, more so than in Ontario and Quebec where for the past several years the incumbent Premiers also enjoyed a divided opposition with no apparent government-in-waiting. The other takeaway is that while Newfoundland and Labrador and Northern Ireland remain the most challenging areas to predict between the three countries I follow, PEI, (and Yukon) are not far behind. But even with two incorrect predictions in a row with Atlantic Canada byelections under my belt, the delving into the fascinating political dynamics and history of unique places and regions make this as rewarding an endeavour as ever.
Update: After two days of postponement due to weather, a report showed large accumulations of snow across the island, coupled with high winds. The Crapaud area in the eastern part of the riding received a total of 34 cm between last Friday, February 2nd and yesterday morning, Tuesday, February 6th, with some other areas of the province receiving twice as much. The PEI 511 website currently shows that main roads, i.e. Route 1 are now bare as of Wednesday afternoon, at least where the riding proper is concerned. It remains to be seen if the weather will have a noticeable effect on voter turnout (and potentially on the overall outcome in the event of a close vote.)
This seat opened up after the PC incumbent, Jamie Foxx, resigned last November to run for the Conservative Party of Canada nomination for the federal riding of Malpeque. Foxx had previously served in cabinet as well as interim party leader. The riding has a blueish lean with Foxx’s first election in 2015 in opposition to the Liberal Wade McLaughlin government.
The byelection is against the backdrop of a popular PC Premier, Dennis King and his government, considerably ahead in polling over the Greens and Liberals.
Identified as having a Borden, PEI address thanks to Payam Moghtader, Unsplash
Primary issues for the province as a whole include health care, including the patient registry (waiting lists), and the establishment of a medical school at the University of Prince Edward Island, housing, and overall affordability.
The riding is perhaps best known for being the PEI terminus of the 12.9 km (8.0 mile) Confederation Bridge, the road link between PEI and New Brunswick which opened in 1997. The largest community in the riding is Borden-Carleton. Historically Borden has been the link between PEI and the mainland with ferry service and much of the local history and economy of the town was influenced by transportation to and from the mainland.
Indeed, PEI politics as a whole was often influenced by the prospect of a physical connection to the mainland. (see J. Watson MacNaught, Pearson Liberals wiped out in PEI 1965 election despite promises to build a causeway, Peter Newman, The Distemper of Our Times, p. 76) The causeway had been an issue for over a century before a 1988 plebiscite decided in favour of construction of the bridge, roughly 60% favouring it to 40% opposed, in some quarters still seen as a contentious issue.
Cavendish, PEI grass by the shore … other side of the Island from Borden, Thanks Tim Foster, Unsplash
The main issues in the current byelection however are not transportation but healthcare, housing and education, and despite not having lost a byelection since his election in 2019, Premier King risks losing the riding to residents upset over the scaling back of services at Prince County Hospital in nearby Summerside, as well as the lack of affordable housing and school overcrowding in the Kinkora area.
The PC candidate Carmen Reeves agrees that more must be done to restore health care services, touting the government’s decision to construct the medical school and thereby ensuring a more ready supply of doctors and health care workers in the province, although his opponents have been critical of the decision to assign waitlists (patient registry) to medical homes and failures to recruit needed health care personnel.
Liberal candidate Gordon Sobey, former President of the PEI Federation of Agriculture, might be the candidate most likely to flip the riding, although Green Candidate Matt McFarlane has also been critical of the government’s response by building a medical school, calling it a ‘zero solution’ to fix the immediate shortages of health care. NDP Candidate Karen Morton has also been critical of the government’s approach and in a recent interview urged the government to listen to all sides.
Another view of Confederation Bridge Thanks to Deana Davis, Unsplash
Takeaways from the byelection might effectively be a warning sign for the King government to show voters more readily perceived results in healthcare; as well as establishing a more discernable Official Opposition, whether that is Liberal or Green (both of whom currently have interim leaders), depending on who either comes in a strong second or upsets the race; and even a possible warning sign to the federal Conservatives that while Atlantic Canada might be trending blue federally, like the more surprise result in Conception Bay East – Bell Island last week, not to discount local issues and take anything for granted.
Historically the Borden-Kinkora riding was largely 4th Prince, a dual member riding electing both Assemblymen and Councillors concurrently between joining Confederation in 1873 and its reorganization to the current area beginning in 1996. This area has been traditionally more of a bellwether provincially, with some instances of voting Liberal for the one office and Conservative for the other concurrent office. Federally this area has been in the Prince riding before placement in the current Malpeque riding starting in 1968, an area of the province with overall strong Liberal leanings, (Prince being one of the few English Canadian seats to buck the ferry’s landing namesake*, Robert Borden and his Unionist sweep in 1917, for example), more recently the seat being Liberal uninterruptedly since 1988.
*Borden, PEI was so named in 1919, after the Prime Minister. To make the 1917 voting in Prince even more interesting was that the new port was commissioned and ferry service established at that point the very same year and still the riding voted against the federal government of the day. One wishes to have had the individual polling station results at the time.
South Carolina will officially be the first state to vote in the Democratic Presidential Primary today, in accordance with DNC rules. This is the first election cycle where South Carolina has been officially recognized as the first in the country to vote in Democratic nomination contests, due to the stated goal of giving more voters of color a voice earlier in the nominating process.
It is also worth mentioning that President Joe Biden was able to vault ahead of other contenders in the 2020 Democratic Primaries with a strong showing in South Carolina with nearly 50% of the vote, support predominantly coming from the state’s Black population, and with the support of longtime South Carolina Congressman Jim Clyburn, a breakthrough that came after less than stellar Biden showings in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Arthur Ravenel Jr. Bridge, Charleston, South Carolina, thanks to David Martin, Unsplash
The state’s population is just over one quarter Black, however the Black Democratic voters made up close to 60% of South Carolina’s voters participating in the party’s primary 4 years ago, and they awarded Biden with 60% of their support according to exit polls.
This cycle, while Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips and prominent author and speaker Marianne Williamson are still on the ballot contesting the nomination, polling in South Carolina has them in the low single digits, while Biden is far ahead at around 70%.
Daufuskie Island, SC Thanks to Yohan Marion, Unsplash
The key factors will not be who wins, but how energized the party base will be to support Biden. Since there is effectively no real contest (if polls are to be believed), turnout will likely be lower than the 550k or so voters who participated in the 2020 Democratic Primary. Since polling also shows that Biden has lost some support with younger voters and voters of color, the metrics to watch will be his levels of support (which where Biden is concerned should surpass the 63% level he received in the ‘unofficial’ New Hampshire write-in campaign), as well as where his support comes from and what the overall turnout rate will be.
In South Carolina voters do not register by party. Therefore, some Democrats might have the incentive to sit this election out and cross over to the February 24th Republican Primary, to support either Nikki Haley (in opposition to Trump) or to pad Trump’s support (who is variously seen as the weaker candidate to run against Biden in the November general election). While the DNC chair, Jaime Harrison, has disowned any such tactics, this dynamic cannot be entirely discounted, especially if the turnout levels today end up being lower but Nikii Haley ends up surpassing expectations three weeks from now.
Edisto Beach, SC Thanks to Drew Beamer, Unsplash
Since Biden is polling consistently at much more than 50% nationally in the Democratic primary and is well ahead of any rivals for the nomination, and this dynamic is mirrored here in South Carolina, ericvotes.com will not make any predictions on this race. There is truly little quantitative data for ‘mildly’ contested primaries for an incumbent Democratic President – the 1996 Democratic Primary was cancelled, and the 2012 primary gave the incumbent Barack Obama nearly 100% of the vote. I would put a benchmark of relative success for Biden as being at least one half of the 2020 turnout and four-fifths of Black voters per exit polling, and 10% points higher than New Hampshire’s write-in campaign. If he fails to hit any of those numbers, that might portend sufficient disenchantment with his reelection campaign below the surface that might be problematic for a Biden victory in November.
Update: The results are in and this prediction was wrong, Liberal Fred Hutton ended up with a fairly decisive victory with unofficial results showing him with nearly one half of the vote. I look forward to learning more about what factors contributed to his win. A wise former U.S. House Speaker once said that “all politics is local” and I suspect this factored into his win as he had deep family roots in the riding (among other factors). The logo rebranding the provincial Liberals did evidently worked. I predict as a hobby races in three countries, Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. and between Newfoundland and Labrador and Northern Ireland, these have to be the hardest races to predict. I am certainly appreciative however of the challenges of psephology (election analysis and predictions) and am glad for these “outliers” in making this hobby truly interesting and rewarding. Always something new to learn … thanks to all who happened by my website or who took the time to interact with me on X (Twitter).
By-election called due to resignation of former interim PC Leader David Brazil due to health reasons.
Conception Bay East – Bell Island is seen as a reliably PC seat in the St. John’s exurban area, having voted blue since 2003 … prior to that was more of a Liberal-leaning bellwether.
The constituency has taken on its present form since the 1985 election, consisting of Bell Island in Conception Bay, Portugal Cove-St. Philip’s on the mainland east and a portion of Paradise. For a number of elections Bell Island was its own constituency, and in other years it was grouped with Harbour Main at the head of Conception Bay.
Confederation Building, St. John’s thanks Erik Mclean, Unsplash
Federally the riding has been a part of the St. John’s East … in surveying polling station results since 1997, Bell Island has trended strong PC/Conservative except in strong NDP years, whereas the Portugal Cove – St. Philips section has seen all three main federal parties showing various levels of support depending on the overall strength.
All three main parties are running candidates in the election along with one independent candidate. Among the main riding issues include improved local ferry service, health care and ambulance services, the winter closure of a local waste facility, road conditions and overall cost of living. It is worth noting that the byelection was originally scheduled for Monday, January 29th but was postponed one day due to the weather.
Tina Neary is the PC candidate and most likely to succeed David Brazil. A town councilor for Portugal Cove-St. Philip’s, she is also a non-profit Executive Director. The campaign has alluded to issues of general affordability on their campaign website, while others have tried to tie the provincial Liberal candidate to their unpopular federal counterparts and the carbon tax.
Identified as a Bell Island address, thanks to Kywen Liu, Unsplash
There was some question that the independent candidate, Darryl Harding, a colleague of Neary’s on town council, might split some of the vote as he self-identified as an ‘independent progressive conservative’ although Neary said she was not concerned about a possible vote split. Harding was suspended from council last March due to allegations of sexual harassment and breaching the town’s code of conduct. Prior to the byelection, he was formerly the local PC district association president who accused PC Leader Tony Wakeham of hand-picking Neary as the byelection candidate and wrote a negative letter questioning Wakeham’s leadership.
Liberal Fred Hutton was a prominent journalist and adviser to Premier Andrew Furey. The Liberals have notably dropped their logo on campaign signs and replaced those with the Premier’s name, an acknowledgement perhaps of the Liberals’ national unpopularity. In the campaign he has addressed health care, ferry service and dumping. One of Hutton’s more memorable quotes in the campaign was related to road issues. “When I am your MHA, I will be able to pick up the phone and call the transportation minister and say, ‘These roads … need to be done in this year’s budget,’ and they will be done.”
NDP Candidate and disability rights activist Kim Churchill is probably best known for her fight in court to have the Newfoundland and Labrador English School District provide services for her son in American Sign Language, a case she won last spring. Her campaign has focused on ferry service, health care, housing, and affordability.
Topsail Beach just outside of riding on Conception Bay … sunset still looks the same thanks to Ibrahim Alonge, Unsplash
The bottom line – Premier Furey’s government is relatively popular, as is his Premiership, compared to his federal cousins, although not overwhelmingly so. Wakeham, the new PC Leader and NDP Jim Dinn have held their own in support since the last election. Neary should be able to keep the seat in PC hands, the potential vote splitting by the independent candidate will likely be negligible compared to the overall PC lean of the riding. If the Liberals place distant third, despite their new branding and relative high-profile candidate, that will likely indicate that national trends are impacting otherwise more local races. The NDP can hope to place a strong second, but this is territory they have not won previously on the provincial level, although at the polling station level federally they have fairly recently shown some strength. Final prediction is a PC hold, vote shares PC around 60%, NDP and Liberals around 20% a piece, IND a few percentage points. (Overall result predicted, not vote share).
Even though New Hampshire is holding their ‘first in the nation’ presidential primaries today for both the Democratic and Republican parties, there is a sense that both parties have largely decided that this will be a Biden versus Trump rematch. Since thus far only Iowa (a caucus, not a primary) has already voted, this raises the specter that for the first half of 2024, the supposedly tumultuous year for democracy, primaries might be more pro-forma and anti-climactic, the winners already decided, with national attention perhaps focused elsewhere, i.e. court or congressional battles.
On the Republican side, while twenty-four names plus one write-in line appear on the ballot, the race is between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and former President Donald Trump. Haley has been hoping for an upset win where most polls show her trailing by between 15 to 25 points. While Governor Ron DeSantis’ withdrawal might have moved (a small number of) voters over to Trump in the state, DeSantis’ endorsement of Trump was likely more impactful nationally in giving Trump the sense of inevitability of becoming the nominee. Nationally Haley is barely able to crack double digits against Trump’s two-thirds to three quarters of Republican support.
Haley has a much narrower path than this NH rail bridge … Balazs Busznyak, Unsplash
The Haley team is hoping that a strong showing, beating expectations in New Hampshire, will help set the stage for the February 24th primary in her home state of South Carolina, and then run competitive with Trump in the (oftentimes pivotal) early March Super Tuesday contests. (Perhaps aided by any legal troubles Trump might encounter.) While Haley has secured the endorsement of New Hampshire’s Governor, Chris Sununu and is seen as having attracted a coalition of traditional Republicans, Never Trumpers and some cross over independent voters (primaries are not open to Democratic-affiliated voters), significant obstacles remain going forward. The South Carolina primary is another month away, where it might be challenging to maintain momentum. Nevada will hold a primary earlier on February 6th, and Trump is far ahead in a state where he has a significant business presence. South Carolina is also an uphill battle for Haley, where Trump has secured the endorsement of most of the congressional delegation, the two Senators and the incumbent Governor, and where he leads by over twenty points in most recent polls.
So, while Governor Haley has taken a somewhat more combative tone in the New Hampshire primary, and where this race bears the most watching tonight, to see at least if she exceeds expectations, going forward it appears that she would need to do some very persuasive arm twisting in her home state alone to stay viable even there. My prediction here is that she her tally is within 15 – 25 points of Trump, (no surprise like John McCain’s 2000 upset, in other words), and she drops out by Nevada.
***
Meanwhile, the Democratic Primary …
Some clouds of uncertainty with the Democratic Primary – timing, candidates, winnability, etc. Thanks Brian Yurasits, Unsplash
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side … there are twenty-one names plus the write-in on the Democratic New Hampshire primary ballot, but President Biden’s name will not listed be among them. He is waging a write-in campaign instead. New rules from the Democratic National Committee sought to have greater diversity in earlier voting contests in the presidential primaries and officially moved, (where the DNC is concerned), South Carolina as the first state to hold an official primary contest. New Hampshire Democrats have pushed back against the proposal and noted that their state law provides for a presidential primary to be held at least seven days prior to any other state. The state Democratic Party affirmed their date, citing state law, prompting push back from the DNC, saying that they cannot accept this exercise as determinative of delegate selection to this summer’s national convention, using in some correspondence the word ‘meaningless,’ prompting yet more pushback from state officials.
The end result is that while Biden is not officially campaigning in New Hampshire, a number of New Hampshire Biden supporters staged a write-in campaign for the incumbent President anyway. It might be noted that this is not the first time a state’s Democratic primary came in conflict with the DNC, the most notable instances perhaps being that of Michigan and Florida in 2008, where those states moved their primaries up to January 15th and 29th, respectively. Both delegations were initially halved that summer as a result, before finally being restored to full voting rights on the eve of that year’s convention. One would be hard pressed to argue that the dustup had an adverse effect on Democratic chances that fall, with Barack Obama carrying MIchigan by nearly seventeen percentage points, Florida was closer but still decisive at just under a three percent margin for Obama.
Fall Scene in New Hampshire thanks Federick Shaw, Unsplash
Biden’s two main challengers are author and activist Marriane Williamson, who previously ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 and Minnesota Congressman Dean Philips, seen as more moderate and in some circles as a more serious challenger to the incumbent president. Williamson aligns more on the progressive left, with calls for such reforms to address poverty, the environment and large investments in education and healthcare. Phillips, from Minnesota’s suburban 3rd Congressional District, has tacked centrist on such issues as Israel and belongs to the moderate Problem Solvers Caucus in Congress. His campaign has been arguably hampered by a series of missteps, however, including criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris, (where he later apologized) and some flirtation with a White House bid under the No Labels banner, even if he later ruled it out.
Nationally Williamson and Phillips are well back in the single digits in polling where Biden far outpaces them with close to two-third to three quarters support. In New Hampshire, however, Biden is polling in the 50s/60s range whereas Phillips’ support ranges anywhere from 6 – 32% based on the current month’s polling. If the narrative on the Republican side shifts towards a Trump coronation, which it will likely do if he beats Haley by 20% or more, the story tonight might be Biden’s numbers, especially should they be less than 60%, by any standards low for an incumbent president. While there is a discernable hunger for a 2024 contest other than a Biden/Trump rematch, New Hampshire is likely not the state to deliver a harsh verdict to Biden given that the younger, more diverse cross section of voters polling suggests is more dissatisfied with the Biden candidacy are not as represented in this state.
Things will get more intense this coming fall, with narrow pathways to win for both parties. Thanks to Spencer Sembrat, Unsplash
Thus, it is unlikely that we will hear from Biden a 1968 Lyndon Johnson speech “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President” after LBJ won only half of the vote in that year’s NH primary against (also from Minnesota) Senator Eugene McCarthy. Phillips simply does not have the name recognition and profile that McCarthy did, nor are the Democrats as divided as they were in 1968 to give Biden immediate pause. But a low level, i.e., <60%, could certainly harm Biden.
New Hampshire only saw an incumbent President defeated once in their primaries, with Harry Truman losing to Tennessee Senator Eastes Kefauver in 1952 (and hastening his withdrawal from the race). More recently, Jimmy Carter won only 48% when he ran against Senator Edward Kennedy for renomination, although given Kennedy was from a neighboring state, that 48% was seen as a more decisive victory. On the Republican side, Nixon only won 68% in 1972, in his bid for renomination, although his neither of his opponents had a high profile and he won the general in a landslide. Ford (50% in 1976) and Bush Sr., (53% in 1992) fought contested primaries, however, and that threshold of support augured badly for their re-election bids later on. Biden can always spin it as the difference as write-in, as opposed to fully engaged campaigning, but lacking any suspenseful narrative on the Republican side, he needs considerably more than 50% to shut down any underground campaign that his reelection bid is in serious trouble.
My prediction here is Biden gets at least 60% of the vote, and likely falls within the range of 60% – 75% to keep moving forward. Phillips and Williamson might remain in the race, but their overall polling stays mostly below 10%.
The irony of this exercise is that more likely than not, the expected tumultuous 2024 will start out quietly on the primary front, with both parties lining up behind their prospective tickets (unusually) early, with successive primaries already being a foregone conclusion, along with lower voter turnout and people largely tuning out until at least the summer conventions. Certainly litigation with the Republican frontrunner could upend that, although the attention would likely be on the courtroom, not the ballot box. We might reasonably expect polling for the general to show a dead heat, or with some polling with Trump ahead in the low/mid-single digits with third parties on the ballot. I would expect things to get more heated in the second half of the year, with some polling possibly changing at that point, so analysts and voters alike might appreciate a less intense primary season before the main event truly gets underway.
Update 10.30 pm: At this point 90% + of the vote is in. Donald Trump is slightly over 50%. DeSantis is slightly ahead of Haley, outside my predicted margin of 2%, although that may tighten. The following map is for second place, Trump appears to have won all 99 counties. The lighter shaded areas indicate where the vote is less than 80% in. Brown-shaded is for DeSantis, green-shaded for Haley. The counties with stripes denote larger urban centers. As predicted, Haley did well in urban centers but not as well as she likely needed to, as DeSantis is narrowly ahead in the largest county, Polk, where the capital Des Moines is located. DeSantis also did well in the critical northwest section that promised to be a battleground of sorts for second place. At this point, it appears that DeSantis is on track to outperform polling expectations and place second, albeit not by a lot. Haley still has some vote outstanding in Waterloo (Black Hawk) and Cedar Rapids (Linn) which might help keep the distance between her and DeSantis < 2%. Map is as of 10.15 pm, so does not convey real-time results, more for purposes of illustrating where each candidate’s respective strength is.
2nd Place showing as of 10.15 pm approx. … Brown, DeSantis; Green, Haley; Pink, Ramaswamy; lighter shade is <80% vote in, striped areas denote larger urban areas
Update 8.17 pm: Very preliminary returns, as expected race has been called for Trump. When I post this it will likely still have 95% of precincts and votes still outstanding. Thus far race looks like a nail bitter for the crucial second place with Haley and DeSantis seesawing back and forth between 2nd & 3rd. DeSantis is doing somewhat better in the northwest section of the state and a shade better than I would have expected in the urban areas. Trump might fall below 50%. I am curious if there have been any empirical studies on the psychology of Iowa Caucus goers voting in real time if they are aware that a race has already been called. It appears the answer is no and no, i.e. I can’t seem to find any empirical studies at first glance and no calling a race does not, at this point, appear to have changed much minds if Trump’s % is slightly falling, as opposed to rising.
The 2024 U.S. election year kicks off with the Republican Iowa caucuses, a quadrennial event going back to 1976 for that party, and touted as first in the nation in the presidential selection process. Iowa caucuses have had some success in predicting eventual nominees, although in this instance the true race may be for second place, while the cold sub-zero temperatures raise questions as to overall turnout.
MLK, Jr. photo thanks to Unseen Histories on Unsplash
The caucus date also falls on the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday, observed the third Monday each January. This happened previously with the Iowa Caucuses in 2004. While the Republican Party initially set the date, (some claiming it was an accident or oversight), and there was some concern that the ‘first-in-the-nation’ caucus might divert a fair amount of national attention from the holiday itself, the state Democratic Party ultimately ended up chosing the same date for their caucuses and pledged to honor the Civil Rights leader’s legacy during the meetings.
A caucus differs from a primary in that the latter is essentially an party election that selects a political party’s standard bearers in the general election, whereas a caucus is a meeting of party members in person where speeches are made and other party business might also arise.
The Iowa caucuses will be held at various precinct locations beginning at 7 p.m. local time that evening and on the Republican side will have two main items of business – holding a binding vote on the presidential nominee and selecting delegates to attend county conventions, part of a multistep process of selecting the delegates who will ultimately attend the national convention later this summer.
The contest awards delegates in proportion to votes received.
The Democrats will also hold caucuses on their side but more for the purposes of party business and delegate selection, the actual vote for the nominee will occur by mail and will be announced in early March. Selected delegates would be bound by the results of the mail-in voting.
Due to the length of time in making the delegate selection, Iowa has traditionally been towards the front of the line in the presidential nominating process. With some of the candidacies historically, such as George McGovern in 1972 (defying expectations with a credible second place finish) and Jimmy Carter four years later, Iowa was seen at least in part as a tipping point to propel them forward to the nomination and, in Carter’s case, the White House.
By contrast, George H.W. Bush won Iowa in 1980, claimed to have the ‘big mo’ (momentum) and then proceeded to lose that year’s race to the nomination to Ronald Reagan. Iowa has notably helped two incumbent presidents fend off significant primary challenges, with Ford narrowly winning over Reagan in 1976 and Carter racking up a stronger margin against challenger Ted Kennedy in 1980.
Where some presidential campaigns go to die in Iowa, photo thanks to Photo by Josh Berendes on Unsplash
As the following chart indicates, Iowa caucuses have portended the eventual Republican nominee 7/12 times, and 9/13 times on the Democratic side (the Democrats first having starting the caucuses in 1972, four years earlier than the Republicans).
Year
R Caucus Winner
Winner as Nominee
D Caucus Winner
Winner as Nominee
1972
not held that year
n/a
Uncommitted, then Edmund Muskie
No, George McGovern 2nd
1976
Gerald Ford
Yes, Reagan close 2nd
Uncommitted, then Jimmy Carter
Yes
1980
George H.W. Bush
No, Reagan close 2nd
Jimmy Carter
Yes, wide margin over Kennedy
1984
Ronald Reagan
Effectively unopposed
Walter Mondale
Yes
1988
Bob Dole
No
Richard Gephardt
No
1992
George H.W. Bush
Yes, Caucuses not contested
Tom Harkin
No
1996
Bob Dole
Yes
Bill Clinton
Effectively Unopposed
2000
George W. Bush
Yes
Al Gore, Jr.
Yes
2004
George W. Bush
Effectively Unopposed
John Kerry
Yes
2008
Mike Huckabee
No
Barack Obama
Yes
2012
Richard Santorum
No, Romney close 2nd
Barack Obama
Effectively Unopposed
2016
Rafael “Ted” Cruz
No
Hillary Clinton
Yes, Sanders nearly tied
2020
Donald Trump
Yes
Peter Buttigieg
Buttigieg, by delegates, Bernard Sanders, by votes
This year, however, the Iowa vote might not be as much of a portent of the election winner as much as following the overall national polling which suggests that former President Donald Trump is anywhere from 30 to 50 percentage points ahead of his nearest GOP rivals in the country as a whole. On the state level, the polling suggests Trump has at least 50% of the vote, with former Florida Governor Ronald DeSantis around 15%, and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley with slightly higher support. In terms of local endorsements, DeSantis won the endorsement of Governor Kim Reynolds as well as a signficant number of state legislators and evangelical leaders, while members of the congressional delegation have shied away from aligning with any of the candidates.
Last year’s Iowa Straw Poll, unscientific but widely seen as indicative of overall voter sentiment, placed Donald Trump with the most votes at 42.47%, followed by Ron DeSantis (15.31%), Tim Scott (11.09%), and Vivek Ramaswamy (9.37%). Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley was well back at slightly under 4%. DeSantis is seen as having a good ground game in visiting all 99 counties, dubbed “the full Grassley” after the long time Senator who held constituency meetings annually in all the state’s counties.
The final Des Moines Register poll showed Trump just shy of 50%, DeSantis basically the same at 16% and Hailey up to 20%, indicating that she had gained the most ground during the campaign. It should be noted that the poll has had some significant predictive ability in the caucuses, but some misses as well, for instance correctly predicting Barack Obama’s initial 2008 win over Hillary Clinton but not predicting Ted Cruz’s win in 2016 over Donald Trump.
The following map will not actually be shaded this way, (as Trump is expected to win most of the counties), but serves as a rough guide to the places where DeSantis and Haley need to do especially well in order to make second place and keep momentum going forward.
Color most of the map Trumpian red for first place, the brown (DeSantis) and the green (Haley) is for 2nd place
Iowa as a whole has trended more Republican over the last two presidential campaigns, although the darker shades of Republican red (on the conventional general election maps) masking a rural/urban divide where Des Moines, and Sioux Falls have trended more towards the Democratic Party, and Waterloo and Davenport have remained solid Democratic strongholds.
The urban counties are those that Florida Senator Marco Rubio carried in the state’s 2016 caucuses, the same counties where Nikki Haley (green-shaded) will at least need to place a solid second to entrench that status going forward to other primaries.
Many of the central counties, some towards the northwest, north central and south central, are where prior more evangelical-based candidates such as Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz did well in their respective 2008, 2012 and 2016 campaigns, and where Ron DeSantis (brown-shaded) would need to place strongly in to remain discernably in second place overall to former President Trump. The Sioux City northwest section might end up being pivotal in the race for second, this was an area where both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz did relatively well in and where the same dynamics between Haley and DeSantis could play out.
Trump could win close to, if not all 99 counties at more than 50 percent support. The red-shaded Fremont county at the very southwestern corner of the map above was indicative of the part of the state where he did the most strongly in 2016, even as he narrowly lost the state to Ted Cruz.
So where will the road go through the GOP Caucus and Iowa and potentially beyond?
For Donald Trump – while there has been some speculation as to whether or not he will make 50% of the vote, the fact remains that if he does not, virtually all polls put him over 40%, where for context the highest Iowa GOP caucus total in an open contest (without an incumbent President) the previous record was George W. Bush’s 41% in 2000. If he can’t beat 41%, that might be construed as a sign of weakness, otherwise he can claim to have set a new record. According to the Des Moines Register poll, enthusiasm for his campaign runs highest of all candidates, (49% extremely enthusiastic, 39% very enthusiastic and 82% firmly committed) which likely makes the wintry weather less of a factor for his final numbers. (Thanks to NBC for making the full .pdf available.)
For Ron DeSantis – the key will be to hold onto second place, consistent with broad expectations, and there are some indications he can still do this despite the late polling. showing Haley inching ahead. The same Des Moines Register poll had more modest levels of ethusiasm, 62% extremely or very ethusiastic, but still far ahead of Nikki Haley’s extremely or very ethusiastic measure at 39%. The best case scenario at this point would likely be to at poll within 10 points of Trump, the next best would be to poll 10 points ahead of Haley if still far behind Trump, the third best would be to poll a few points ahead of Haley, then tie Haley or something close to a tie (say within 2 percentage points), the worst case scenario would be to lose second spot by more than 2 points, which would likely have adverse effects on fundraising and momentum going forward. To any extent that he exceeds opinion poll numbers, expect his campaign to spin this as a win. According to the recent-most Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) road condition map, the crucial areas in the rural north have more drivable roads, another plus factor where DeSantis will likely need to secure a large number of his votes to secure second place.
Obligatory summer farm photo of Iowa, complete with barn and cornfield Photo by Kelcy Gatson on Unsplash
For Haley – best case scenario at this point is run 10 points within Trump or, failing that, 5-10 points ahead of DeSantis to dethrone him as the main alternative to Trump, and benefit from momentum, including fundraising, going forward, especially with New Hampshire. A tie could still be spun as a win, since she discernably gained the most ground in opinion poll surveys. Any less than 2-3 percentage ponits behind DeSantis, however, and that could alter the narrative of her as the main alternative to Trump as the race moves to New Hampshire. She will likely poll in the same urban areas of the state where Marco Rubio did well in 2016, however some of those areas, i.e. Cedar Rapids, are where roads are most adversely affected by the weather. If the race for second is tight, this could help DeSantis more.
The bottom line from this race for 2024 is that Trump remains the favorite for the Republican nomination, the race for the GOP-Trump alternative being far less clear. Trump will ulimately benefit the longer this lack of clarity persists. He also benefits if the main alternative has less cross-over appeal within the party, which judging by both state and national polls of Republicans, would appear to be Haley, not DeSantis. However – the harder Trump attacks Haley, that might risk giving some more moderate general election voters pause. If DeSantis preserves standing as the main alternative to Trump, he can potentially take more votes away from the former President in a primary and potentially deny him the nomination, but Trump’s attacks on DeSantis “DeSanctimonious” could potentially help him in a general election.
So the dynamics are multi-layered, but the weather and the backdrop remain the same as they have been for the past decade or so. A hard road for the Trump alternative, a polarizing, cold climate politically and seemingly impassable roads in Washington to get much of anything done, whether it is something major like immigration or something temporary like a continuing resolution.
Usually my predictions are based on one outcome, i.e. candidate a wins or not, and I mark my prediction right or wrong. In this case, however, I don’t see it as a mark of political acumen to predict a race where polls have consistently indicated the same likely winner over many months. Therefore, I am predicting three things, all of which have to be met for me to consider calling this race correctly.
Trump wins at least at the mid-40s if not over 50%
DeSantis and Haley are within 2 points of each other and both either spin it as a tie, or surpassing expectations
Both continue forward without suspending their campaigns prior to New Hampshire
This provincial riding in Ontario became vacant due to resignation of the former NDP MPP Laura Mae Lindo, who accepted a position at the University of Waterloo’s Philosophy Department
The riding provincially has historically been competitive with all three parties at various times throughout its history as Waterloo North, Kitchener, and Kitchener Centre. During the long post-war PC tenure on power, Kitchener was part of a block of more rural, southwestern Ontario ridings that supported the provincial Liberals, and became more of a bellwether after 1990, with all three main parties winning the riding at various times.
Notably, the long-time Liberal MPP during the PC tenure, Jim Breithaupt, was once seen as a potential Liberal leader who ended up losing the 1982 leadership race to David Peterson, who went on to break the PC’s then (nearly 42 years!) tenure in power shortly thereafter in 1985. Before Breithaupt’s representation, Liberal MPP John Wintermeyer held the Waterloo North riding from 1955 – 63 and contested the 1959 and 1963 elections as Liberal leader (losing his seat to PC Keith Butler in 1963).
Victoria Park, Kitchener, Aditya Darji, Unsplash
Federally the riding is held by Green MP Mike Morrice, who won the riding after the previous Liberal MP, Raj Saini, was accused of sexual harassment but remained on the ballot after a deadline had passed to withdraw his candidacy. Historically the riding federally has been a bellwether since the Pierre Trudeau years.
The election is taking place against the backdrop of a sometimes controversial and unpopular PC incumbent government (some polling has showing a rebound in their support) and a divided opposition, mainly between the Official Opposition NDP and the third-party Liberals, with housing affordability, the Greenbelt controversy, health care and education being the primary issues.
Ultimately my rationale in support of a Green victory today is that the tactical Liberals (as opposed to the hard-core Liberals) are ‘free agents’ amidst the progressive/left-of-centre vote, their candidate, yet without a permanent leader (2 days early!) is widely recognized as not having the same ground game as the Greens and the NDP. In that case, what message would they want to send? My best guess is to back a candidate opposed to the current PC government, but a candidate who would not in the long-run stymie their chances of forming government themselves, which means Green (as indeed happened federally 2+ years ago in the same federal riding).
Not a bandwagon or a train, but hopping on the Green bicycle Peter Aschoff, Unsplash
That said, the chances of the NDP keeping the riding remain decent, I would say 40% chance of a Green win, 30% of an NDP hold, and the remaining 30% divided between a Liberal pickup, such as what happened in Kanata-Carleton earlier this year (with a former MP carrying the banner) – here I would rate it at between 15 – 20%, and the PC managing to benefit from a vote split between the progressive forces, which I would put at no more than 10%. I’ll give Mr. John Turmel the remaining odds, simply because he is Canada’s record-holding Perennial Candidate.
In reverse order of likelihood, then, here is a brief assessment of the odds.
John C. Turmel and the remaining 13 fringe candidates. According to his Wikipedia biography, this marks election #109 contested by Mr. Turmel, who has run in various races nation-wide since 1979 (without winning any and holding a Guiness Book of World Records in so doing). On to #110 ..
The other minor party candidates include New Blue and Libertarian, the former of which ran in the riding in the last general election. Minor party candidacies can sometimes cause vote splits with major party candidacies, in this instance however it is unlikely to move the needle significantly.
The Progressive Conservatives, candidate Rob Elliot. Overall, the provincial PCs have around a core vote of 25% of the electorate, with a ceiling of around 38% in the last 20 years. Despite the PC sweeps of 2018 and 2022, their share of the vote did not exceed 28% in either election. A quarter of the vote is not likely to win this by-election. In the last 20 years, the right-of-centre vote (PCs, New Blue, Libertarian, etc.) has usually been at one-third or less in the riding, and with the exception of 2003 and 2011, has not come close to 40% at any other time. The candidate himself does not reside in the riding (he lives near Lake Simcoe) and did not participate in the local candidates’ debate held recently. While he emphasizes local ties, a number of media accounts have raised the point of his outside residence and lack of participation in the debate as practical considerations why he is unlikely to prevail today. (Odds 10%)
The only candidate to have run in the previous general election in the riding is Liberal Kelly Steiss, a long-time civil servant. The main concern for the Liberals stems from the overall sense that the NDP and Greens are more energized, while local Liberals are also tuned into their leadership race. While the Liberals did pickup the Kanata seat (barely) with a former MP during the unfolding of the Greenbelt scandal, and while a win here today would likely cement their status as the Official Opposition-in-waiting, progressive voters in Ontario are still far from decided which partisan vehicle they will collectively chose to challenge the governing PCs. Recent polling, despite the relative popularity of Ontario Liberal Party front runner (Mississauga Mayor) Bonnie Crombie, puts the Liberals in a statistical tie with the NDP in province-wide support. Recent polling also puts the NDP out in front regionally in southwestern Ontario. Crombie has moreover pledged to run from the centre-right, not the left, (which likely boosts the Liberals with 905 swing voters, but might hurt them more in areas like Kitchener where some progressives might view the Liberals as a more ‘establishment’ with their own track record baggage.)
Core Liberal support since the riding’s creation did not significantly fall below 40% until their 2018 election route, bottoming out at just under 15% in the last election. It is possible that Steiss can improve on this showing, but equally, if not more likely that the difference of likely tactical Liberals (the 5% of the voters who backed the previous Liberal MPP, Dalene Vernile, in her 2018 defeat but went elsewhere in 2022) will continue to look for who they believe will be the most viable alternative in sending a message to the Ford PCs at Queen’s Park.
Which brings us to the two presumed front-runners, the Greens and the NDP.
City Councilor Debbie Chapman is running for the NDP. The core NDP vote prior to 2018 generally ranged within 15-20% of the overall vote, although during the lean post-Bob Rae years, it went as low as 7% in 1999. The NDP with the prior MPP, Laura Mae Lindo, won both times with over 40% of the vote. Lindo, for her part, has endorsed Chapman, but has been somewhat critical of the NDP leadership overall, particularly with respect to the expulsion of Hamilton East MPP Sara Jama over comments she made in relation to the Hamas-Israel war. The local NDP riding association added to some of the turmoil when a letter was posed to their social media website calling for the NDP leader, Marit Stiles to resign over the Jama expulsion controversy, although a number of other local NDP officials maintain this was not representative of the entire local party, who remain committed to helping Chapman win. One positive omen for Chapman, possibly, is that the provincial PCs have targeted Chapman’s own record as councilor on housing, referring to her as the “Queen of NIMBY”.
The fact remains, though, that in a likely low-turnout rate byelection, recent controversies can not help the NDP in terms of bringing out all core supporters to the polls. The election results over the past 20 years suggest that of the 40%+ vote share Lindo received, less than half was from core NDP support, while up to two thirds were migrating centrist and left-of-centre voters, such as previous Liberal voters, looking to tactically vote to stop a local PC win. Thus, it is very possible for Chapman to bleed some of that vote share to the Greens.
The Greens themselves might not seem to be the front runners given their fourth place status in opinion polls, but with visits from nearby Green MPP and party leader Mike Schreiner (Guelph) as well as federal leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault, they are showing that they are very invested in a win by candidate Aislinn Clancy. A City Councilor and a social worker, Aislin would become the first provincial counterpart in Ontario to a federal Green MP from the same riding, Mike Morrice, who has also been very visible on the campaign trail for Clancy. To further show confidence in her candidacy, the provincial Greens designated her as Deputy Leader of the party.
The Greens have largely maintained overall provincial vote share in recent polling. Despite, (or perhaps partly because of), an open flirtation in running for the provincial Liberal leadership (before deciding against it), Schreiner remains very respected as a public figure, even if it does not currently translate to more than his seat in the legislature. The Toronto Star recently referred to his housing policy as a ‘master class’ in overall strategy to secure more affordable homes (at least when compared, in the Star’s opinion, to the governing PCs).
In Kitchener Centre the Greens have run candidates since the riding’s inaugural election back in 1999, although vote share has remained under 10% until the last election, where it almost reached 15%. While swings pushing Greens into the winner’s circle are still very rare, something comparable happened in Guelph where Schreiner previously received a fifth of the vote in 2014, only to more than double that in 2018 with a win and then a modest gain to over 50% of the vote overall in 2022. So mathematically at least, the Greens can, based on historical swings elsewhere, at least catch up to the NDP and surpass them. The situation federally in Kitchener Centre was much the same, in that Morrice won just over a quarter of the vote for the Greens in 2019 but added 9% to that in 2021 for an overall win.
So based on analysis of prior vote shares, a likely scenario might be the NDP falling by around 10 points, given overall controversies, with the Greens picking up potentially 15 points, from left-of-centre voters (some previously Liberal, some NDP), to make this a narrow win for the Greens, although the overall Green/NDP margins will likely be tight enough, and turnout low enough, that the margin might be just as close the other way with the NDP holding the riding.
As far as future portents go, by-elections have been a mixed bag in Canada. One of the examples I look at is with the NDP and Quebec by-elections. In 1990, Phil Edmonston decisively won Chambly for the NDP in what many saw at the time as a major breakthrough for a party without prior representation there. But by the time 1993 rolled around, the NDP caucus was almost wiped off the map. It took almost another 20 years for the NDP, with Tom Mulcair, to pick up Outremont in a 2007 by-election and then four years after that for Jack Layton’s unprecedented Quebec breakthrough. In most other provinces, such as New Brunswick and British Columbia, Green Party officials establish a foothold but then largely have maintained a beach head without growing much further. One exception to this was in Prince Edward Island, where the 2017 Charlottetown-Parkdale by-election saw Green Hannah Bell join then-current MLA and party leader Peter Bevan-Barker in the Legislative Assembly, with the Greens forming Official Opposition two years later with an unprecedented 8 MLAs.
Green Islands or Green Beach head? Thailand, not Kitchener Photo by Denys Nevozhai on Unsplash
So, in sum, an Orange vs. Green contest today, with almost equal chances of winning, the Greens with a slight edge due to tactical Liberals hedging on a protest vote without helping the NDP (a repeat of 2021 Kitchener Centre federally). Most likely in 2026 the Greens would fight hard to hang on, with the broader picture showing a Liberal/PC contest in the 905 to see who will hold the reins of power.
The real portent, however, might be in the efficiency of tactical voting. To the extent that progressive forces can effectively line up behind one candidate, that changes the whole ballgame not just at the provincial level, but potentially in the upcoming federal election as well.
Utah 2nd Congressional District consists of most of the rural (staunch Republican) western park of the state, also encompasses parts of urban Salt Lake City (including some of the most Democrat-leaning precincts in the state).
The office became vacant after the previous GOP Congressman, Chris Stewart, resigned due to his wife’s health issues.
Celeste Maloy, Stewart’s legal counsel, is the Republican nominee. Stewart himself endorsed Maloy, although her win was considered somewhat of an upset given that several of her rivals had high name recognition, including Greg Hughes, former Speaker of the Utah House of Representatives (lost at the convention); former State Representative Becky Edwards (lost in primary, seen as fairly moderate) and Bruce Hough, prominent GOP official at the state and national levels (also lost in primary).
Maloy polled very strongly in the primary from the southern, more rural part of the district (in contrast to Edwards, winning in the Salt Lake City area and Hough, winning in the northern part of the district in Tooele County). Maloy herself is from Iron County having worked as a soil conservationist for the Department of Agriculture, as well as an attorney for Washington County before joining Stewart’s office as his chief legal counsel in D.C. and is widely seen as someone familiar with the needs of the rural part of her district.
Democratic nominee Kathleen Riebe, from Salt Lake City, is the Minority Whip in the State Senate, representing the 15th district and has held a number of different jobs ranging from truck driver to police dispatcher prior to her current career in education. She has been seen as running a vigorous campaign mirroring Democratic issues nationally such as abortion, education, the economy and democracy, among others.
The district remains overwhelming Republican, and it is unlikely to change, although the race may end up being closer, given a widely recongized Democratic tendency in recent special elections to overpreform at the polls. One poll suggests a 9 point Republican lead. Anything under a 10 point margin could be considered a victory of sorts by Democrats, given that the 2022 Congressional Republican margin was almost 26 points, and in 2020 President Donald Trump carried the district by some 17 points.
The race, probably the last major one for 2023 before the country moves into an almost certainly tumultuous 2024, offers very little in the way of portents for 2024. The Republican nominee might pull more from her strength as a well known local candidate in touch with local issues such as resource and land management in the rural areas. The Democratic nominee will likely perform well in the Salt Lake City area, running on a more national campaign, although this will likely not overcome the likely wide margins the Republicans are expected to win in the rural parts of the distrct, the way the district is currently comprised.
Overall, chances of Republican victory 75%, with a greater than 10% margin rated at 50%.
No official predictions today as this post being made after polls closed.
Republicans are expected to retain the three main contested statewide offices of Attorney General, Secretary of State and Treasurer. Despite close races in some cases, partisan breakdown remains fairly uniform, it is more a reflection of the crowded nature of some of the jungle primary candidates in October’s races.
Attorney General – Liz Murrill, R vs. Lindsey Cheek, D … October partisan breakdown R 69.3%; D 30.7%
Secretary of State – Nancy Landry, R vs. Gwen Collins-Greenup, D … October partisan breakdown R 68.3%; D 30.4%
Treasurer – John Fleming, R vs. Dustin Granger, D … October partisan breakdown R 68%; D 32%
***
October’s previous predictions of R legislative control in both chambers won’t be impacted by November run off races since the Republicans already have a majority in both houses
House of Representatives – 105 Seats total. October decided 100 races, of which Republicans won 60, 27 Democrats and runoffs 18
Senate – 39 Seats total. October decided 37 races, of which Republicans won 27, Democrats 10 and 2 runoffs
Today’s elections might be fairly limited where portents for next year are concerned since the very limited number of races, none of which are in currently identified key swing states
Current polling in regards to next year is more a snapshot in time of today’s mood, enough economic, political (and legal) variables could profoundly shift next year’s races, see Norman Ornstein perspective
How the twists and turns of the abortion debate play out politically might be one of the biggest near-term portents of this election cycle, particularly in Ohio, Virginia, possibly Pennsylvania
This year two Democratic candidates for Governor are polling strong in crimson red Republican southern states. Both are seen as moderates. Incumbent Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear however is taking some more conventionally Democratic stances on issues such as abortion, whereas Mississippi Democratic Governor candidate Brandon Presley is seen as more pro-life. Yet odds makers place Beshear’s chances ahead of Presley’s.
The longer-term portent might be, especially after losing the Governor’s mansion in Louisiana earlier this fall, is if more moderate Democrats can, with platforms more adapted to their states, make as big of an impact on cross-over voting in deep red states as some Republicans such as Larry Hogan, Charlie Baker and Chris Christie recently have managed to do as Republicans in deep blue states
For the most part taken as a whole, probably a good day for incumbency, if not a resounding endorsement
Pennsylvania Supreme Court (noteworthy, not predicting)
Election for vacant position on the state Supreme Court caused by the death of Justic Max Baer (D)
Democrats previously had a 5-2 majority on the state Supreme Court, this election will not directly change that majority
Republican Carolyn Carluccio, Judge of the Montgomery County Court of Common Pleas, will face off against Daniel McCaffery, Judge of the Superior Court of Pennsylvania
Race will prove to be pivotal for a number of key issues including the conduct and recognition of elections, especially as Pennsylvania is seen as a key swing state, in addition to other issues such as abortion and reproductive rights
Ohio Ballot Initiatives (noteworthy, no predictions)
Ohio recently rejected a constitutional amendment earlier this year that would establish a 60% threshold for adopting further constitutional amendments, widely seen as a block on any further amendment aimed at articulating reproductive rights in the state constitution
Ballot Initiative #1 – recognizes ‘an individual right to one’s own reproductive medical treatment’ and restricts state actions on abortion before the point of viability
Polling has consistently shown the Yes side ahead, but not over 60%, which is not surprising with post-Roe plebiscites on the issue – Kansas and Kentucky, arguably much redder states, both rejected measures that would have entrenched further restrictions, in this instance however this is a positive articulation rather than a vote on restrictions
This would continue an abortion rights winning streak after six ballot initiatives on the issue in other states last year
Ballot Initiative #2 – provides for recreational marijuana usage by adults, polling shows consistent support, comparable to Initiative #1
Rhode Island US Congressional District #1 – Special Election – Predicted D Hold
Vacancy caused by the resignation of Rep. David Cicilline, who took a post with the Rhode Island Foundation
The district basically comprises the eastern half of the state. While Republicans have certainly represented it over its 180-year history, the last one to do so was Ronald Machtley, from 1989 – 95, after which he resigned to run for the Governor of Rhode Island (who lost in the R Primary to Lincoln Almond, who won the general later in November 1994) The Cook Partisan Voting Index has this rated D +12
One other notable Representative was Patrick J. Kennedy, (son of U.S. Senator Edward Kennedy) who succeeded Machtley and served a total of 8 terms
This election notable in that Gabe Amo, a former aid in both the Obama and Biden Administrations, would become the first African American representative to the U.S. Congress in the state’s history
Amo was seen as a moderate and pulled out a largely unexpected win in a crowded primary field, against former State Representative Aaron Regunberg, who had the endorsements of several prominent progressives
His Republican opponent is Gerry Leonard, Jr, a retired U.S. Marine Corps Officer and operations executive
Overall Legislative Control predicted, not individual races
General Assembly – D Retain Control
Senate – D Retain Control
All 80 House (General Assembly) seats are up for election in the lower chamber as well as 40 seats in the Senate. New Jersey is unique in that 40 districts are the same for both chambers, voters will return one Senator and two Assemblymen per district
Republicans are optimistic given President Biden’s unfavorable numbers plus at least some midterm malaise for Democratic Governor Phil Murphy and the legal troubles of Senator Bob Menendez.
However, with districts identified as competitive by CN Analysis, gaining overall control of one or both chambers by Republicans after two decades of Democratic statehouse control remains beyond most projections
The Senate range for Republicans runs from 10 – 19 seats (just short of a tie on the high end); whereas the General Assembly runs 22 – 40 (which would be a tie on the high end)
Competitive districts are found both in the southern and central parts of the state, with the southern area trending more Republican, but with both GOP and Democratic seats on the defensive. In 2021 the Republicans ran better than expected with both the gubernatorial candidate and legislative races, including the unexpected defeat of then-Senate President Steve Sweeney, D
Most news reports convey the sense that Democrats are on the defensive, Republicans have taken a more controversial approach touting school gender identification policies (especially as Governor Murphy has initiated lawsuits against some school districts adopting policies towards informing parents of children’s changed gender identity), offshore wind farms
The Republican approach might rally some of that party’s base, and show some gains in what is expected to be a low turnout election, however the more ‘kitchen table’ issues within New Jersey such as affordability, property taxes might persuade more swing voters, and New Jersey is not especially a socially conservative state
Overall Legislative Control predicted, not individual races
House of Delegates – D Flip Chamber
Senate – D Retain Control
All 140 seats are up for election today, which includes 100 house of Delegates Seats and 40 Senate Seats.
The Viriginia Legislative Assembly is the oldest continuous law-making body in the Western Hemisphere, first established in 1619
Republican Governor Glen Youngkin is looking to build on his brand nationally in hoping to win both legislative chambers. He has assumed a prominent campaign role. Democratic strategists appear equally motivated to stop him and the Republicans from gaining complete control of the legislature
Both parties have pumped a considerable amount of money into legislative races, with the key swing areas being in the northern D.C. area suburbs, suburban Richmond around the middle of the state and Hampton Roads area in the south eastern corner near the coast
The Governor’s proposed 15-week abortion ban appears to be one of the most predominant, if not the main issue, in the election campaign. Some polling suggests that Virginia voters are not particularly enthused about a ban that would further restrict abortion services in the state. Post-Roe Virginia has the most liberal abortion laws in the southeastern United States, one poll suggested only 29% wanted further abortion restrictions, and 39% supported a 15-week ban. To the extent that the Republicans fail to gain control of the Senate and/or lose control of the House of Delegates, this might be attributed to the abortion question, which will likely inform how the parties address this issue next year.
Other issues include cost of living, gun control, education, housing costs and the economy at large. While Biden’s approval rating has not been particularly high in Virginia at the present time, other prominent Democratic party leaders have been active in the campaign.
Per CN Analysis, (my extrapolation of their ratings), enough seats in both chambers are in play where either party could control one or both chambers. The range for the Democrats is 45 – 54 in the House of Delegates and 20-25 in the Senate. The Republicans might have a slightly higher range with the House of Delegates at 46 -55, but more of their seats are in play, 2 to 1. The Republicans would only need to tie the Democrats in the Senate to control the chamber since the Lieutenant Governor, a Republican, would have voting rights and provide overall control. However, a tie is only on the upper end for Republicans, their overall range is 15 – 20.
Overall Legislative Control predicted, not individual races
House of Representatives – R Retain Control
Senate – R Retain Control
All 52 state Senate seats and 122 state House of Representatives seats are up for election this year
It should be noted, however, that approximately 80% of legislative candidates have no major-party opposition in the general election, and more than 50% of the current year’s winners would not have faced either a significant primary challenge or general election challenge (from the opposite party)
This practically assures a continuation of the same party controlling the legislature after the election. Several other states have similar dynamics, including Georgia, (83% uncontested state House districts in 2016; 79% uncontested same year Massachusetts and 75% uncontested same year Arkansas and South Carolina)
This trend has increased in recent years in Mississippi, rising from 63% of uncontested races in 2011 to around 85% this year, and over the same period of time lack of primary challengers rising from 45% to 57%
The DLCC (Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee) has nonetheless contributed a small amount towards legislative races in both Mississippi and Louisiana
A recent report on unopposed races attributes three factors to more unopposed candidates – gerrymandering, low legislative salaries, and challengers less likely where their party is more unpopular overall
The race for Governor has turned competitive, with Democratic candidate Brandon Presley, Mississippi Public Service Commissioner and former Mayor of Nettleton running nearly even with incumbent Governor Tate Reeves
For over a century, the Governor’s office was dominated by Democrats, from 1873 through 1991, when the Republican candidate that year, Kirk Fordice, finally breaking a 118-year Democratic lock on the office. Most of the first half of the 20th century Republican candidates didn’t even run, and races have only been competitive for the last 50 years or so. The last time a Democrat won the Governorship was Ronnie Musgrove in 1999.
Mississippi finally abolished a requirement unique in the country that a Governor candidate not only win the popular vote but also a majority of state House districts, now a runoff is required with 50% of the vote required
Politics in the state are along both partisan and racial lines, with the state’s 38% black population overwhelmingly Democratic, and the majority white population heavily favoring Republicans. To be competitive, Democrats must generally encourage high turnout amongst black voters (where they comprise 35% of the participating electorate to be viable) and obtain at least a fifth of the white vote for their candidacies to have a credible shot at winning. The 35% bar has been attained previously, but most notably in even-year elections such as when President Barack Obama or Senate candidate Mike Espy
Reeves is unpopular, both in the state at large as well as amongst core Democratic constituencies, many of whom see him as being vindictive. The welfare fund scandal involved $77 million in misused welfare funds for various projects. Governor Reeves has also been accused of being biased against the capital city of Jackson, in particular for expanding state authority in the city, vetoing legislative appropriations for various public works in the city and being inattentive to the needs of Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs). For his part, the Governor maintains his innocence (he himself has not been charged) and noted that the welfare fund scandal did not occur on his watch, but rather his predecessor when Reeves was the Lieutenant Governor.
Presley might best fit the description of an older version of a southern Democrat, identifying as pro-life, pro-Second Amendment and with a record of cutting taxes when he was mayor. He declined to make much commentary on the next Presidential election. He does embrace a populist message of cleaning up corruption, supporting more funding for HBCUs, cutting the grocery tax, and expanding Medicaid. This last issue is tied into the challenges that many rural Mississippi hospitals have in continuing to operate, with both parties offering support, Governor Reeves more directly to hospitals themselves, while Presley believes Medicaid expansion is overall most helpful.
What Presley needs to do to win
The map graphic shows where Presley needs to do well to win, where I extrapolated a uniform swing. However, the shading on the map serves as a rough guide and cannot reflect the deeper issue of turnout embedded in the numbers. It is worth noting that he did secure the endorsements of such luminaries as Bennie Thompson, US Representative from MS-2 (who did not end up endorsing the Democratic nominee in 2019) as well as actor Morgan Freeman. Ultimately, the threshold of voter participation in an off-year election might be hard to achieve, and the red state dynamics might be hard to overcome.
Incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear will barely hang on to a challenge from current state Attorney General, Daniel Cameron
Much like neighboring Tennessee, the Democrats did not have an absolute lock on the Governor’s Mansion since reconstruction, but the dominant trend for the past century has been Democratic control with occasional Republican wins, although even in more recent decades, Republicans have only held the Governor’s mansion for exactly 8 out of the last 50 years
Beshear is well regarded, even by his opponent (they apparently were former colleagues at the same law firm), and is this year’s Democratic counterpart to Viriginia Governor Glen Youngkin, the promising governor with national potential. Beshear took a high profile during several natural disasters and is widely seen as approachable and relatable, and with respectable favorability ratings.
The dynamics of Kentucky, however, are fairly red, having last voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate in 1996 (on a tight margin), however conservative the state has traditionally been, it is only more recently that this has translated into Republican strength.
The last election was fairly unique in that the incumbent Republican Governor, Matt Bevin, was particularly unpopular, especially with a controversial proposal to cut teachers’ pensions, Beshear, possibly bolstered by his surname recognition (his father was Governor from 2007-15) was able to campaign as a moderate and make significant inroads in suburbs and parts of eastern Kentucky (which have trended heavily towards the Republicans in recent election cycles)
Beshear is continuing to take a fairly conventional approach for a Democrat with jobs (making several high-profile announcements) and infrastructure, he has actually been more vocally pro-choice on abortion (the state rejected language that would explicitly remove abortion protections in the state constitution) and is credited for making Cameron moderate his position on the issue to some extent
Cameron is hoping for a more nationalized campaign, gaining the endorsement of Donald Trump early on, and campaigning on President Biden, inflation, and transgender policies in schools.
In previous election cycles in other southern states, I have reviewed voting patterns in traditional yellow-dog counties (i.e., rural, southern counties voting for Democrats during Republican landslides, such as 1984) and noted that for most Democratic campaigns, the road to victory lies in the suburbs and urban areas (see Doug Jones’ Alabama victory in 2017). Kentucky is unique in that the Beshear campaign has revitalized some of the rural Democratic vote (see 2019 map showing Trump/Beshear counties).
The deeper the blue, the greater number of Trump/Beshear voters
While widely expected, the tightening of polling reflects national trends, national campaigns, and the state’s deep red color on the presidential map. The conventional math might say with the teaching constituency as a whole (slightly?) less motivated to punish Republicans, the lack of a libertarian candidate this cycle who probably hurt Republican Bevin more and a general Republican rallying around Cameron (that eluded Bevin) that he would be the clear favorite. However, incumbency might be Beshear’s biggest asset, with strong favorables, along with a high profile and name recognition.
Marking this horse race as close, Beshear win by a nose.
Labour leap or Tory trough? thanks to Ian Cylkowski
The governing Conservatives once again find themselves on the defensive in two by-elections in England with seats they won in 2019 with strong majorities. The Tamworth constituency in Staffordshire was vacated with the resignation of Chris Pincher, accused of sexual harassment (a contributing factor in clouding the Premiership of Boris Johnson with respect to how much he knew, “Pincher by name, pincher by nature”). The Mid Bedfordshire constituency held by Nadine Dorries was vacated with her resignation ten weeks after she had first indicated she would do so, after failing to have secured a peerage to the House of Lords.
The Mid Bedfordshire constituency was existing in its current form since 1918 and has been held by the Conservatives continuously since 1931. Labour has never held this seat. It is a rural ‘county’ constituency with the two largest towns being Ampthill and Flitwick, roughly 70 miles (45km) from the heart of London. Income is above average. The riding was closely divided in the Brexit referendum but tilted slightly to the Leave option.
The Tamworth constituency has existed in various forms for the last 460 years and is centered around the market town of Tamworth in the south of Staffordshire, West Midlands region. It is approximately 18 miles (30km) from central Birmingham. It was perhaps most notably represented by Sir Robert Peel, a UK Prime Minister in the mid-19th century, a Conservative noted for his pro-free trade stance. Although Tamworth has a slightly larger Conservative majority in 2019 than Mid Bedfordshire, it is considered a bellwether constituency, last held by Labour’s Brian Jenkins up to 2010. It voted heavily for Leave in the Brexit referendum, at 66%. Income is around the U.K. average.
Thanks to Luke Stackpoole
The Conservatives are weighed down by the legacy of the two former MPs, particular Ms. Dorries, according to local news reports. Several news reports relayed the impression of many voters of that of an absentee MP who was neither accessible nor very responsive. The current Conservative candidate in Tamworth, Andrew Cooper, was embroiled in at least some controversy when a social media post disparaging struggling parents some years ago emerged. Both he, and the Mid Bedfordshire Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, (Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner) have generally opted to a more low-profile campaign. This is against the overall backdrop of Conservatives polling anywhere from 12 – 20 points behind Labour nationally.
Interestingly, the Conservative Party generated a memo then obtained by media sources projecting that vote shares in both byelections to be essentially halved to around 30 percent. The memo did not actually project a huge swing towards Labour so much as disillusioned Conservative voters not showing up to vote. There was some speculation the memo was ‘leaked’ to help manage expectations.
Labour would be seen as the main alternative in Tamworth with union official Sarah Edwards as the candidate. There was some controversy as to her actual residence as reported by the Daily Mail. In Mid Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern is standing for Labour, previously a councilor on the Waltham Forest London Borough Council and specialist at the Bank of England on climate insurance. While Labour remains ahead nationally, it might be noted that depending on the poll, approval ratings for Sir Keir Starmer are more mixed, with a mixture of approval and disapproval. They have also played down their ‘moonshot’ chances of winning ‘supersafe‘ Tory seats.
The Liberal Democrats are considered to be a complicating factor in the Mid Bedfordshire constituency, where polling has local councilor and charity executive Emma Holland-Lindsay in a strong third place position behind the Conservatives and Labour, both tied in a recent poll. While the Liberals historically have held the constituency, and the Liberal Democrats are seen as making a serious bid for the seat (the type of rural English, soft leave constituency they might be expected to do well in) in the last 30 years they have only once succeeded in being a clear second to the Conservatives, that being the election of 2010. While there have been arguments for tactical voting for either party so the Conservatives don’t squeak through, there has been reports of some friction on the ground between the two organizations.
Thanks for Jurica Koletic
While Tamworth is technically a bellwether, it is also seen by virtue of the strong leave vote as being a ‘red wall’ constituency, the type of working-class constituency both Labour and the Conservatives need to form a majority government. I calculated the necessary swing here to be 21.3% from Conservative to Labour, which during the recent rounds of by-elections was previously exceeded by Labour in Selby and Ainsty. If the Conservatives were to retain Tamworth, that might portend some disquiet on the Labour benches that they might not be able to achieve a majority, despite their high polling nationally.
Mid Bedfordshire, on the other hand, could go one of three ways, and is not seen as critical to Labour majority hopes, not having won the constituency before in its 105-year history. The swing Labour would need here is just over 19%, again, within the realm of possibility. The significance of a Labour win in a constituency they never previously held would reinforce the message that the incumbent Conservatives are headed towards a resounding defeat, at least as voting trends presently are.
By-elections in the UK generally produce larger swings than at general elections. The central London constituency of Bermondsey had the largest swing of any modern byelection in 1983, the Liberals winning a 44.2% swing from Labour. It isn’t unusual to see swings in the low 20 percent range, with varying levels of turnout and the chance for voters to send a message without, in most cases, seriously altering the balance of power. The 1994 Dudley West byelection has to date been the biggest Conservative to Labour swing at 29%, at a time where Labour has running around 30 points ahead of the then governing Conservatives.
Wall, Labour 1/2 – Red, Somewhere north in England thanks to Manas
In predicting these two races, I would defer to two former Conservative local elected officials in Tamworth, including a former mayor, who believe that the Labour Party will eke out a win due to Conservative troubles both locally and nationally. Mid Bedfordshire will be harder to predict – to the extent that the Liberal Democrats achieve a strong vote share, that will likely put the Conservative candidate ahead rather than being elected in their own right, since Labour is a factor. Ultimately it comes down, however, to the message that the voters wish to send, especially with the previous MP, Ms. Dorries, plus the fact that the necessary swing to flip the seat here is less than in Tamworth, and nationally the Liberal Democrats have not notably benefited, per polling, from the Conservative decline. I’d differ somewhat from the betting websites putting odds on the Conservatives to retain the seat, for those aforementioned reasons, I’d place them myself at 40% (or 3/2). That said, if the Conservatives retained Mid Bedfordshire, it would be much less surprising than if they held Tamworth.
Wall, Labour 2/2, Tartan, somewhere in Scotland thanks to Remi Muller and Emperor Hadrian
It may be of more consequence to Labour that they won the earlier Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, since they have never previously won a majority government in the UK without significant Scottish support (something both the UK and Canada have in common, btw – regional parties such as the Bloc Quebecois and Scottish Nationalists currently pose a real challenge to both left-of-centre parties from winning an outright majority even if conditions are otherwise quite favourable).
Special thanks to Niamh Baker and Elise Uberoi, the UK House of Commons Library, Research Briefing on their excellent paper on Electoral Swings
