Currently Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are leading opinion surveys nationally by, on average, 10 points.  While this does not preclude the incumbent Liberals under Justin Trudeau returning to power, since there are some instances where incumbent parties have erased those polling deficits, at this point, it is the Conservatives’ election to lose. 

At the present time only 9 out of the 78 Quebec MPs are Conservative (one more was elected as a Conservative and since left the caucus).  Regional polling consistently has the federal Conservatives in the low to mid-20s in Quebec, behind both the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois compared to leads in most other parts of the country.  While it is possible that the Conservatives can make further gains in Quebec, especially if the Bloc should falter, recent history suggests that these gains would be limited given previous Conservative PM Stephen Harper’s inability to get more than one dozen seats in the province despite winning 3 elections overall.

In Quebec opinion surveys show the autonomiste, centre-right Coalition d’Avenir Quebec (CAQ) comfortably ahead in opinion surveys, although facing some headwinds, notably over a cancelled tunnel project in Quebec City.  The separatist Parti-Quebecois (PQ) is a discernable, if distant, second place, amidst 3 other opposition parties.  The Jean Talon byelection in Quebec City might portend the opposition coalescing around Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s PQ, which won the riding for the first time in its history (going back to 1966), or it may be an anomaly since the riding was directly impacted by the decision to cancel the tunnel project.  It can’t be discounted, however, since the southern, river front ridings in Quebec City tend to be more left leaning, Quebec Solidaire (QS) holds the two neighbouring ridings and ran a very close second to CAQ in Jean Talon last general election, carrying nearly half the polls.  It is therefore possible that the PQ win in Jean Talon reinforces the narrative that they, more than anyone else, are the government in waiting.

Governments in Quebec, since the end of the Duplessis Union Nationale era, generally point to a particular government’s best-before date as being 2 full mandates, but with some exceptions (nearly all on the one mandate side, only 1 instance since Maurice Duplessis where a government received 3 consecutive mandates, one of which was a minority, during the Jean Charest years). CAQ would hit the two full mandates with next election in 2026.

We also know that the Parti Quebecois traditionally wins power for the first time by campaigning not on holding a referendum but on offering good government to a province tired of the incumbents (1976 and 1994), in both instances the PQ government called a referendum in the first mandate, lost both times, and then handily won reelection in the subsequent election (either despite, or perhaps because, sovereignty was no longer on the table).  Pauline Marois’ 2012 victory was an outlier since she only won a minority government after campaigning on Jean Charest’s record, and assumably, due at least in part to her minority position did not call a referendum.

So Plamondon might be best placed for his PQ party to succeed the CAQ after 2 terms in 2026, he might campaign on good government, and might make good on his intent to hold a referendum, the next Quebec election campaign would almost certainly be held after the next federal election campaign, while any future Quebec referendum would be well after the next federal election.

Referendum support might potentially increase in the wake of federal Conservative leader Poilievre’s pledge to make Canada ‘the freest country on earth’ since Quebec politics has traditionally been left of centre, is seen as considerably more socially liberal than a number of MPs in the federal Conservative caucus and is aligned more with renewable energy than fossil fuel production (which might also limit the federal Conservatives’ gains in Quebec).

Federal campaigns have rarely turned on the prospects of Quebec referendums.  The 1979 election campaign saw PC leader Joe Clark win power with a minority, with PQ Premier Rene Levesque in power in Quebec.  Clark only had 2 Quebec MPs out of 75.  In the subsequent election in 1980, the campaign was fought over issues such as Clark’s failed attempt to pass a budget which would have raised the tax on gasoline by 18 cents a gallon. 

While the Quebec government was at the time actively debating a referendum question for a plebiscite to be held later that year, and while that might have prompted some swing voters outside of Quebec to consider the federal Liberals as a better alternative to fight a referendum campaign (given their much stronger Quebec representation), most observers felt that the prospect of a Quebec referendum, while not hurting the federal Liberals at the time, was mostly peripheral to the electorate outside of Quebec in 1980, concerned as they were more with the price of energy. 

Likewise, while the 1993 campaign featured for the first time the separatist Bloc Quebecois, much of the election elsewhere was focused on the lethargic state of the economy and the unpopular Goods and Services Tax enacted by the incumbent PC government.

The last two referendum campaigns were led on the federalist side by Liberal Prime Ministers from Quebec (Pierre Trudeau in 1980, Jean Chretien in 1995).  Likewise, they had strong, if not completely harmonious ties with their provincial Liberal counterparts in Quebec, and a fairly deep bench of prominent Quebec politicians to advocate for the federalist side 

By contrast, none of Poilievre’s Quebec caucus has national household name recognition, and the most discernably federalist provincial party, the Quebec Liberal Party, is largely confined to western Montreal and with few ties to the federal Conservatives.   It is true that former Conservative leadership candidate, and former Quebec Premier Jean Charest, was a Liberal, as was Dominique Vien, the now Conservative MP for Bellechasse.  The Conservative MP for Louis-Saint-Laurent, Gerard Deltell, was also previously leader of the CAQs successor, the Action democratique du Quebec ADQ.  Some of the Conservative Quebec MPs have some provincial experience, therefore, but not necessarily on a magnitude that might move the needle in a campaign. Finally, it is also worth noting that during the last leadership campaign, the Quebec caucus overwhelmingly endorsed Jean Charest, with 7 out of 10 MPs, with Poilievre receiving the endorsement of only one caucus member.

So what is the takeaway?

If Poilievre wins in the next federal election (still a big if) and Jean Talon portends the eventual return of the PQ to power in Quebec, he may be faced with the prospect of a Quebec referendum down the road with minimal resources on the federalist side – namely, a small Quebec presence in his caucus, potentially estranged ties with the Quebec Liberals who traditionally spearhead the federalist campaign in referendums and an policy platform less in sync with Quebec voters than elsewhere.  This would be a first in that this could potentially be the weakest federalist coalition yet to campaign in a Quebec independence referendum, if due care is not taken.

This means that Poilievre could risk being the Prime Minister that saw Quebec separate on his watch if he does not take events like Jean Talon into account.

So if I was Poilievre – I would

1. Court both the CAQ and the provincial Liberals (and provincial Conservatives) in the next election
2. Give high profile roles to my Quebec MPs (which he will likely do)
3. Keep Jean Charest’s contact information handy

If I was Plamondon, I would

1. Get enough Solidaire voters on side
2. Campaign on good government in the next provincial election
3. Be prepared to strike fast and strike hard if Poilievre is my counterpart in Ottawa, especially if he proposes something significant that is offside with most of the Quebec electorate

Ten Observations from a Pundit across the Pond

1. Byelection triggered with the successful recall petition of the previous incumbent, SNP Margaret Ferrier for serious breaches of COVID-19 regulations, to which she pled guilty and was sentenced to community service hours
2. The constituency is described as a marginal SNP/Labour seat in the Glasgow area, previously a Labour stronghold, first flipping to the SNP in 2015, reverting to Labour in 2017 and then returning to the SNP fold in 2019
3. Both SNP and Labour are seen as having political baggage in this byelection
4. This is the major electoral test under the new SNP leader and First Minister, Humza Yousaf, who replaced outgoing SNP leader and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon
5. SNP support has declined in polls, while not precipitously, enough to make marginals competitive, Sturgeon’s resignation also seen as a negative for SNP strength, and while the pro-independence Alba Party did not field a candidate in a bid not to split the independent vote, other independence-minded candidacies such as the Scottish Greens and the Independence for Scotland Parties may end up splitting the vote enough in a tight race to tip the outcome to Labour
6. Labour has its own challenges.  A number of analysts see this as a must win for UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, who has embraced a position on not lifting the two-child benefit cap, contrary to the local Labour candidate, Michael Shanks’ position being to lift the cap (in line with the SNP position and likely closer to Scottish opinion)
7. The council tax in South Lanarkshire is also increasing, where the Labour Party has minority control, and several other controversies attributed to local Labour leadership on the council might weigh down Labour’s bid
8. Mathematically, Labour has outperformed their Scottish totals in this constituency by around 10%, while SNP generally has run close to even to their overall Scottish vote totals
9. Current polling suggests that the SNP has around a 5% plurality over Labour in UK elections, which suggests a 2-3% Labour edge in today’s byelection
10. Should Sir Keir lose this byelection, it might raise questions on his leadership on at least two fronts, firstly, absent a strong showing in Scotland, especially in marginals, if he could win a majority government should the race in England tighten, and secondly, if his more ‘fiscally cautious’ approach on such policies as the two-child benefit cap would dampen Labour enthusiasm, limit Scottish gains (or conversely, if he took a more ‘liberal’ approach on social policy such as the cap, if it might limit gains in swing ridings elsewhere in the country)

	Seats	% Votes
NDP	33	46.3%
PC	22	40.3%
Liberals	2	9.5%
Greens	–	2.5%
Ind/Otr	–	1.4%

Voting is underway in Manitoba’s 43^rd general election.  If polling is to be believed, NDP Wab Kinew will become the province’s next Premier with a modest majority, and the riding dynamics largely support this narrative.

Since the rise of NDP vs. PC contests over 50 years ago, the electoral map has seen a remarkably stable group of ridings seen as safe for both parties.  Broadly speaking, the southern, and especially southwestern rural ridings have remained reliably PC, as well as those areas towards the south of outer Winnipeg.  The NDP has seen comparable electoral strength from the northern ridings and a core of north central Winnipeg ridings.  Apart from 1988 where the Liberals made significant (if one time) inroads in Winnipeg, both parties have (perhaps unique to any Canadian province) maintained a sizeable presence in the legislature of more than one dozen seats out of 57 total (a number that has also remained the same since 1949).

The swing ridings do consist of a few rural areas but are mostly ridings closer to the Perimeter Highway around Winnipeg and are in turn “consistent” bell weather ridings.  As a Canadian myself it would be tempting to call these swing areas ‘donut’ ridings, surrounding a more orange urban core and a bluer rural background, but geographically this would not correspond to anything approximating a perfect ring.  Most of the swing areas are towards the north or southeast, whereas the southwest has maintained a more consistent blue.

Regardless of how these geographically appear on a map, however, the fact that these individual ridings being swing ridings, further out from the core but still urban Winnipeg, augurs more for an NDP victory despite the relatively close polling throughout a campaign.  Certainly, it is at least in theory possible that the incumbent PCs under incumbent Heather Stefanson can pull off an upset reelection – there are a number of precedents for this in Canada, and the PCs could lose up to 6 seats and still maintain a bare majority government.  But that’s a very fine needle to thread, and while history suggests a two-term government is achievable, the math becomes more complicated, if not impossible, for a hat trick. 

The incumbent PCs have been close to or modestly underwater in polling over the past several years.  In addition to the normal malaise of a government in its now 7^th year of power, the province has struggled with high inflation and struggling healthcare services, even if the national housing crisis is not as acute, as say, Toronto, and the provincial budgets are turning a respectable surplus.  The campaign was initially characterized as being uneventful with the PCs advocating tax cuts and the NDP greater investment in healthcare.  However, towards the end of the campaign the PCs have made it a point to not just state, but openly campaign on a pledge to not search a local landfill for the remains of two First Nations women, while the NDP and third-party Liberals have pledged to do this, albeit with differing commitments of financial resources.  In addition, the PCs have been promoting what is characterized, (rightly or not) as parental rights in schools in relation to transgender and non-binary students who might feel unsafe to reveal gender identities at home.

Whatever the merits of the PC position (there certainly has been some blowback with accusations of less than subtle dog whistling), it is this blogger’s opinion that this (newly found?) focus on social issues appears to be badly targeted to the specific ridings the PCs need to maintain power. The ‘reliable’ swing ridings, those places such as Assiniboia, Kildonan-River East, Radisson and Rossmere, all correspond to areas both provincially and federally where either economic issues have held greater sway (at least based on prior elections) or where the pattern of voting suggests, if anything, suburban moderation. If the social areas were to play better in rural areas, there are only a handful of truly swing ridings which wouldn’t offset a potentially steeper decline of the PCs in suburban Winnipeg.

With respect to individual leaders and parties, it is anticipated that both the PC and NDP leaders should be able to easily maintain their seats.  It is noteworthy that should Mr. Kinew become Premier, that he would be the first Indigenous Premier elected in Manitoba in almost 150 years.  The Liberals face a challenge not only in the decline of their brand federally, but the fact that election cycles favouring the NDP has been often to their detriment.  The safest riding for them is River Heights, held by former leader Jon Gerrard (for close to a quarter century).  Both leader Dougald Lamont and their other MLA, Cindy Lamoureux, are expected to face tough challenges in their respective seats of St. Boniface and Tyndall Park, respectively.  The Greens have nominated a considerably reduced slate of candidates, with the only (probably still unlikely) prospective win in Wolseley for leader Janine Gibson.

In sum – best chance the province turns orange similar to 1999. Remote chance the PCs are able to remain in power. Nothing suggests underlying voting dynamics to significantly shift between strong PC, strong NDP and swing ridings.

The current CAQ government is trending down in recent opinion polls, as they near the middle of their second mandate with five years in power.  Recent opinion surveys show CAQ falling to third place in the Quebec City region, with the Parti Quebecois or Conservatives leading in the region, depending on the particular survey. 

One of the main issues in the riding is the cancellation of a promised automobile tunnel linking Quebec City with Levis, a decision the Legault government made the spring after the 2022 election, and which reportedly caused many residents in the region to be upset with the incumbent government.

The riding contains the former municipalities of Sillery and Ste-Foy, along with the Universite Laval.  It was first created as the Jean Talon riding in the 1966 election and previously occupied in earlier years areas closer to the centre of Quebec City.  While to date the PQ have never held the riding, it nearly won the riding in 1994 and 1998.  While Quebec City trends more conservative than the province as a whole, the particular localities represented by Jean Talon have not trended conservative as much as some of the more northern ridings in the region.  Since 1993 the federal Conservatives have only won the federal counterpart, Louis Hebert, once, barely, and with those particular polls commensurate with Jean Talon being where the second place Bloc Quebecois finished more strongly.  Provincially Quebec Solidaire has received strong support in the riding, corresponding to their relatively strong showing in the southern parts of Quebec City and election wins in neighbouring Taschereau and Jean Lesage.

While Quebec Solidaire has gained one other seat in a byelection since the 2022 vote, that being the St.-Henri-Ste.-Anne riding held by the former Liberal leader Dominique Anglade in Montreal, there is less hope that they will prevail here on election day.  The PQ has discernably moved ahead in the Quebec City region in recent polls and has consistently claimed second place in province wide opinion polling overall.  Finally, a Leger opinion poll for this byelection puts the PQ at 32 %, CAQ at 30%, with QS at 17% and the Liberals at 16%. 

With this in mind, I am predicting at least 50% chance that the PQ will win the riding, 35% for CAQ and 15% QS, and additionally, a 40% chance that QS will displace CAQ for second place. 

While this would undoubtedly be good news for the PQ, it would not necessarily be more discernable which party, between the PQ and QS, would be seen as the alternative to the governing CAQ.  Since the latter party’s founding in 2006, in large part as a left-wing response to the 2005 neoliberal Pour un Quebec lucide manifesto and has previously rejected cooperation with the other sovereigntist party, the PQ.  Polling suggests a significant age gap between the sovereigntist parties, with younger voters favoring QS 2 to 1 over the PQ, and often with an outright plurality, whereas older voters who are sovereigntist are more apt to stay with the PQ.  If the PQ can demonstrate, however, with this win, in a riding they have never previously held, that they are the default choice for previous CAQ voters, this might help them move past core QS support and in a better position to return to power.  But like neighbouring Ontario where the incumbent government there enjoys a divided opposition as well, it may end up being several election cycles before a badly beaten previous governing party discernably moves out into second place, let alone making a credible bid for power outright. 

Notre-Dame-De-Grace Westmount – Liberal Hold, Anna Gainey

Oxford – Conservative Hold, Arpan Khanna

Portage – Lisgar – Conservative Hold, Branden Leslie

Winnpeg South Centre – Liberal Hold – Ben Carr

UCP – 49.98% of Popular Vote and 54 seats

NDP – 44.23% of Popular Vote and 33 seats

Former Premier Notley builds on Edmonton strength and makes inroads in Calgary, if could overcome narrow deficits in a dozen ridings over Calgary, suburbs and Edmonton environs, might defy predictions.

However opinion polling, coupled with some incumbency advantage with the UCP makes this a more unlikely scenario.

UCP Projected Wins

Airdrie-Cochrane

Airdrie-East

Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock

Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul

Brooks-Medicine Hat

Calgary-Acadia

Calgary-Beddington

Calgary-Bow

Calgary-Cross

Calgary-Edgemont

Calgary-Elbow

Calgary-Fish Creek

Calgary-Foothills

Calgary-Glenmore

Calgary-Hays

Calgary-Lougheed

Calgary-North

Calgary-North West

Calgary-Peigan

Calgary-Shaw

Calgary-South East

Calgary-West

Camrose

Cardston-Siksika

Central Peace-Notley

Chestermere-Strathmore C

Cypress-Medicine Hat

Drayton Valley-Devon

Drumheller-Stettler

Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche

Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville

Grande Prairie

Grande Prairie-Wapiti

Highwood

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake

Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland

Lacombe-Ponoka

Leduc-Beaumont

Lesser Slave Lake

Lethbridge-East

Livingstone-Macleod

Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin

Morinville-St. Albert

Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills

Peace River

Red Deer-North

Red Deer-South

Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre

Spruce Grove-Stony Plain

Strathcona-Sherwood Park

Taber-Warner

Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright

West Yellowhead

***

NDP Wins

Banff-Kananaskis

Calgary-Buffalo

Calgary-Currie

Calgary-East

Calgary-Falconridge

Calgary-Klein

Calgary-McCall

Calgary-Mountain View

Calgary-North East

Calgary-Varsity

Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview

Edmonton-Castle Downs

Edmonton-City Centre

Edmonton-Decore

Edmonton-Ellerslie

Edmonton-Glenora

Edmonton-Gold Bar

Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood

Edmonton-Manning

Edmonton-McClung

Edmonton-Meadows

Edmonton-Mill Woods

Edmonton-North West

Edmonton-Riverview

Edmonton-Rutherford

Edmonton-South

Edmonton-South West

Edmonton-Strathcona

Edmonton-West Henday

Edmonton-Whitemud

Lethbridge-West

Sherwood Park

St. Albert

The first observation I need to make about PEI politics and projections on the riding level, which can also be true of results in Yukon, Newfoundland and other localities where the electorate is around 10,000 or less a district, is that there is absolutely no way I can presume to know all the local dynamics on the ground, where personal contact, name recognition amongst neighbours and perception in the local communities will often factor as prominently, if not more so, than party labels.  To be sure, those dynamics can be in play in contests with a larger electorate, but the sheer limitations of personal contact with candidates having to convince tens of thousands, (as opposed to hundreds or thousands) for their vote makes this logically a more limited factor than issues, leaders and party affiliation.

That said, PEI polling (very limited this election season), political history (both with respect to parties and ridings) and contestants make a number of trend lines and likely scenarios quite clear.

The first dynamic is that the incumbent PC government is sitting on a consistent polling lead of 20+ percentage points, and has been for the past 3 years.  While this is the same government that presided over pandemic measures and is experiencing ongoing challenges with health care, the Premier’s popularity is high, the PEI economy has expanded post-pandemic and the population growth rate is one of the highest, if not the highest, in the country.  The current polling placing the incumbent government’s support at half the electorate portends a near sweep of the ridings, especially as the opposition is unusually divided between the Official Opposition Greens, the Liberals and the NDP.  At somewhat higher levels of support, incumbent governments have nearly swept the province in the 1989, 1993, 2000 elections (2 Liberal and 1 PC, respectively), although only in 1935 did a party win a complete sweep (in this particular case, the challenging Liberals to the incumbent Conservative government in the midst of the Great Depression). 

The election could theoretically replicate the 1935 complete sweep, (especially with Green and Liberal support running basically neck and neck for second place), but it is unlikely to materialize, with some parts of the province having sufficiently concentrated pockets of support for the opposition parties.

Of the 27 seats, I project the PCs will win at least 22, a gain of 9 from the last election (and a gain of 7 overall from current standings after 2 by-election pickups).  The 5 remaining seats that the opposition may win would be divided between Greens, Liberals and the NDP, with the Liberals the slight favourites to reclaim Official Opposition status.

First, 2 notable PC wins – Charlottetown – Brighton – projecting that former PC leader Rob Lantz picks this up for the PCs.  Formerly held by Ole Hammarlund for the Greens, the incumbent lost re-nomination.  In addition, the NDP Leader, Michelle Neill, who was widely seen as having performed well in the leadership debate, is running here and will likely split the non-PC vote that much further as opposed to flipping this seat orange.  Lantz previously ran in this riding and lost by 24 votes (less than 1%) during the 2015 election when he led the party.  His brother Jeff Lantz had previously represented the riding during the Pat Binns government some 20 years prior. 

Cornwall Meadowbank – this was the lone Liberal holdout in the 2000 PC Binn’s near-sweep. The last time it had PC representation was in 1986 as 2^nd Queen’s. The prior Liberal incumbent, Health McDonald, resigned after running (and ultimately being elected) for federal Malpeque riding.  In late 2021, PC Mark McLane edged out the Liberal to pick this riding up for the PCs, breaking a 35 year losing streak.  Former but given the lack of incumbency advantage, I am projecting this is likely to stay (however narrowly) in the PC column, although this will certainly be a race to watch.  (The Liberals had this advantage in retaining the riding in 2000.)

In western PEI, the only franco-majority riding, Evagenline – Miscouche is open after Liberal incumbent Sonny Gallant is not running again.  While the PCs have occasionally held the riding, the decline of Green support and the historically high level of Liberal support (routinely surpassing 60-70% in prior elections) make this one of the more likely holds for the Liberals, represented by local councilor and hockey coach Pat McLellan.

One riding further west, along Egmont Bay, O’Leary – Inverness is shaping up to be a tight 3 way race between the PCs, Liberals and New Democrats.  Liberal incumbent Robert Henderson served as a prominent cabinet minister in both the prior Liberal Robert Ghiz and Wade MacLauchlan governments and has generally polled well in his re-elections, especially considering the occasional strong NDP challenge.  That NDP challenge comes from Dr. Herb Dickieson, to date the only NDP MLA elected in PEI, back in 1996.  While he has not broken 40% in any race thus far, he is generally seen as popular and has polled at least a third of the vote both in his unsuccessful attempt at re-election in 2000 as well as another unsuccessful challenge against Henderson in 2019. PC beef and dairy farmer Daniel MacDonald might be buoyed by favourable PC polling numbers and a potential Liberal/NDP split to flip this riding blue.  Then again, a declining Green vote may consolidate behind either the Liberals, NDP (or perhaps even the PCs) to push one of them over the line by a more comfortable margin.

Finally, at the very western end of PEI pointing towards Ile Anticosti 100 plus miles north in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Tignish – Palmer Road,  Liberal Hal Perry is running for re-election.  Both a former PC, and then Liberal cabinet minister, he polled strong in the 2019 election and stands to benefit from the lack of a Green candidate on the ballot. 

The Liberal leader Sharon Cameron’s election bid is notable for both her promise to serve concurrently as Health Minister (if elected Premier) and presently to contest Green Leader Dr. Peter Bevan-Barker in New Haven – Rocky Point, not far from Charlottetown.  I am currently projecting Cameron to poll maybe a fifth of the vote in the riding, given Dr. Bevan-Baker’s relative strong stature in the riding, combined with his 2 term incumbency and the ascendant PCs likely pulling at least some support from Bevan-Barker.  While a successful Cameron candidacy in the riding would likely cement the Liberals as once again being the clear opposition to the governing PCs, more likely than not she will fail to carry the riding and the Liberal caucus will select another interim leader in the legislature. 

The Green’s two best prospects are in New Haven – Rocky Point, and less likely, but still possible, in Charlottetown – Victoria Park, where incumbent Karla Bernard polled very strongly in the previous election against both a Liberal cabinet minister, Richard Brown and then-NDP leader Joe Byrne.  While PC Tim Keizer is running again for the party this time, he will have to gain a large swing to make up for his 21% showing in 2019.  The Liberals may or may not replicate Mr. Brown’s 28%, while Byrne might retain a comparable tenth of the vote as last time, albeit no longer as the party leader.  For these reasons, if the Greens do return any incumbents apart from Bevan-Barker, it will most likely be in Charlottetown – Victoria Park.

The ridings that the Green’s will likely lose include Charlottetown – Belvedere, where incumbent Hannah Bell is not running for re-election.  This was one riding they picked up with Ms. Bell in a 2017 by-election that arguably increased their overall electability in the election 2 years later.  This time, Ms. Bell was quoted as saying that with Premier King’s early election call, that the Greens simply weren’t ready. 

This is not to say that the other Green ridings couldn’t stay Green after Monday, it is just simply that given the decline in Green support and increase in PC support relative to 2019, it would not take a significant swing in any of the other ridings they hold, (with the possible exception of Summerside – South Drive) to see PC gains.  This includes incumbents Michele Beaton in Mermaid – Stratford (near Charlottetown – PCs need 4% Green to PC swing) and then the Summerside-area ridings of Tyne Valley – Sherbrooke (incumbent Trish Atlass, PCs need just over a 1% swing); Summerside – Wilmot (incumbent and Deputy Leader Lynne Lund, PCs need a 3-4% swing) and Summerside -South Drive (incumbent Steve Howard – in this case the incumbent Liberal cabinet minister he defeated had a strong showing, which complicates the necessary swing calculation for the PCs, if the Liberal vote remains steady it would be around an 11% point swing).

Rounding out the list is the NDP prospects – as previously mentioned their likely strongest shot is O’Leary – Inverness with Dr. Dickieson, they will likely perform strongly in Charlottetown with current leader Neill in Charlottetown – Brighton and former leader Byrne in Charlottetown – Victoria Park.  One other notable riding, for at least a strong showing, though likely no gain, is the Stanhope – Marshfield riding just north of Charlottetown where Marian White, NDP candidate, is the only candidate other than PC incumbent Bloyce Thompson, who is likely to retain two thirds of the vote.

In the end, the Liberals with strength in western PEI, are likely to regain official opposition with two seats, Evangeline – Miscouche and Tignish – Palmer Road.  Either they or the NDP win O’Leary-Inverness, (I’ll give the Liberals the slight edge there), and Dr. Bevan-Baker keeps the Greens on the board with New Haven – Rocky Point. 

Nationally, this will likely not have significant implications … the federal leaders have not had a significant presence in the campaign, the Greens mirror their downward shift as seen nationally, the federal Conservatives may see limited upside as the PEI PCs are seen as leaning more on the Progressive than Conservative side of their name  (King was reportedly explicit around the last federal election campaign in distinguishing the PEI PCs as separate from the federal Conservatives). Finally, the Atlantic provinces overall have not resoundingly rejected the Liberals, who remain viable in New Brunswick and Newfoundland polling.  Even in losing today, the Liberals might still regain their traditional position as one of the two main contending PEI parties.

UK – Labour to hold Stretford & Urmston December 15th

Manitoba – PCs to retain Kirkfield Park in close by election December 13th

Canada – Liberals to retain Mississauga Lakeshore December 12th