| Seats | % Votes | |
| NDP | 33 | 46.3% |
| PC | 22 | 40.3% |
| Liberals | 2 | 9.5% |
| Greens | – | 2.5% |
| Ind/Otr | – | 1.4% |
Voting is underway in Manitoba’s 43rd general election. If polling is to be believed, NDP Wab Kinew will become the province’s next Premier with a modest majority, and the riding dynamics largely support this narrative.
Since the rise of NDP vs. PC contests over 50 years ago, the electoral map has seen a remarkably stable group of ridings seen as safe for both parties. Broadly speaking, the southern, and especially southwestern rural ridings have remained reliably PC, as well as those areas towards the south of outer Winnipeg. The NDP has seen comparable electoral strength from the northern ridings and a core of north central Winnipeg ridings. Apart from 1988 where the Liberals made significant (if one time) inroads in Winnipeg, both parties have (perhaps unique to any Canadian province) maintained a sizeable presence in the legislature of more than one dozen seats out of 57 total (a number that has also remained the same since 1949).
The swing ridings do consist of a few rural areas but are mostly ridings closer to the Perimeter Highway around Winnipeg and are in turn “consistent” bell weather ridings. As a Canadian myself it would be tempting to call these swing areas ‘donut’ ridings, surrounding a more orange urban core and a bluer rural background, but geographically this would not correspond to anything approximating a perfect ring. Most of the swing areas are towards the north or southeast, whereas the southwest has maintained a more consistent blue.
Regardless of how these geographically appear on a map, however, the fact that these individual ridings being swing ridings, further out from the core but still urban Winnipeg, augurs more for an NDP victory despite the relatively close polling throughout a campaign. Certainly, it is at least in theory possible that the incumbent PCs under incumbent Heather Stefanson can pull off an upset reelection – there are a number of precedents for this in Canada, and the PCs could lose up to 6 seats and still maintain a bare majority government. But that’s a very fine needle to thread, and while history suggests a two-term government is achievable, the math becomes more complicated, if not impossible, for a hat trick.
The incumbent PCs have been close to or modestly underwater in polling over the past several years. In addition to the normal malaise of a government in its now 7th year of power, the province has struggled with high inflation and struggling healthcare services, even if the national housing crisis is not as acute, as say, Toronto, and the provincial budgets are turning a respectable surplus. The campaign was initially characterized as being uneventful with the PCs advocating tax cuts and the NDP greater investment in healthcare. However, towards the end of the campaign the PCs have made it a point to not just state, but openly campaign on a pledge to not search a local landfill for the remains of two First Nations women, while the NDP and third-party Liberals have pledged to do this, albeit with differing commitments of financial resources. In addition, the PCs have been promoting what is characterized, (rightly or not) as parental rights in schools in relation to transgender and non-binary students who might feel unsafe to reveal gender identities at home.
Whatever the merits of the PC position (there certainly has been some blowback with accusations of less than subtle dog whistling), it is this blogger’s opinion that this (newly found?) focus on social issues appears to be badly targeted to the specific ridings the PCs need to maintain power. The ‘reliable’ swing ridings, those places such as Assiniboia, Kildonan-River East, Radisson and Rossmere, all correspond to areas both provincially and federally where either economic issues have held greater sway (at least based on prior elections) or where the pattern of voting suggests, if anything, suburban moderation. If the social areas were to play better in rural areas, there are only a handful of truly swing ridings which wouldn’t offset a potentially steeper decline of the PCs in suburban Winnipeg.
With respect to individual leaders and parties, it is anticipated that both the PC and NDP leaders should be able to easily maintain their seats. It is noteworthy that should Mr. Kinew become Premier, that he would be the first Indigenous Premier elected in Manitoba in almost 150 years. The Liberals face a challenge not only in the decline of their brand federally, but the fact that election cycles favouring the NDP has been often to their detriment. The safest riding for them is River Heights, held by former leader Jon Gerrard (for close to a quarter century). Both leader Dougald Lamont and their other MLA, Cindy Lamoureux, are expected to face tough challenges in their respective seats of St. Boniface and Tyndall Park, respectively. The Greens have nominated a considerably reduced slate of candidates, with the only (probably still unlikely) prospective win in Wolseley for leader Janine Gibson.
In sum – best chance the province turns orange similar to 1999. Remote chance the PCs are able to remain in power. Nothing suggests underlying voting dynamics to significantly shift between strong PC, strong NDP and swing ridings.