Ten Observations from a Pundit across the Pond

1. Byelection triggered with the successful recall petition of the previous incumbent, SNP Margaret Ferrier for serious breaches of COVID-19 regulations, to which she pled guilty and was sentenced to community service hours
2. The constituency is described as a marginal SNP/Labour seat in the Glasgow area, previously a Labour stronghold, first flipping to the SNP in 2015, reverting to Labour in 2017 and then returning to the SNP fold in 2019
3. Both SNP and Labour are seen as having political baggage in this byelection
4. This is the major electoral test under the new SNP leader and First Minister, Humza Yousaf, who replaced outgoing SNP leader and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon
5. SNP support has declined in polls, while not precipitously, enough to make marginals competitive, Sturgeon’s resignation also seen as a negative for SNP strength, and while the pro-independence Alba Party did not field a candidate in a bid not to split the independent vote, other independence-minded candidacies such as the Scottish Greens and the Independence for Scotland Parties may end up splitting the vote enough in a tight race to tip the outcome to Labour
6. Labour has its own challenges.  A number of analysts see this as a must win for UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, who has embraced a position on not lifting the two-child benefit cap, contrary to the local Labour candidate, Michael Shanks’ position being to lift the cap (in line with the SNP position and likely closer to Scottish opinion)
7. The council tax in South Lanarkshire is also increasing, where the Labour Party has minority control, and several other controversies attributed to local Labour leadership on the council might weigh down Labour’s bid
8. Mathematically, Labour has outperformed their Scottish totals in this constituency by around 10%, while SNP generally has run close to even to their overall Scottish vote totals
9. Current polling suggests that the SNP has around a 5% plurality over Labour in UK elections, which suggests a 2-3% Labour edge in today’s byelection
10. Should Sir Keir lose this byelection, it might raise questions on his leadership on at least two fronts, firstly, absent a strong showing in Scotland, especially in marginals, if he could win a majority government should the race in England tighten, and secondly, if his more ‘fiscally cautious’ approach on such policies as the two-child benefit cap would dampen Labour enthusiasm, limit Scottish gains (or conversely, if he took a more ‘liberal’ approach on social policy such as the cap, if it might limit gains in swing ridings elsewhere in the country)