Currently Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are leading opinion surveys nationally by, on average, 10 points.  While this does not preclude the incumbent Liberals under Justin Trudeau returning to power, since there are some instances where incumbent parties have erased those polling deficits, at this point, it is the Conservatives’ election to lose. 

At the present time only 9 out of the 78 Quebec MPs are Conservative (one more was elected as a Conservative and since left the caucus).  Regional polling consistently has the federal Conservatives in the low to mid-20s in Quebec, behind both the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois compared to leads in most other parts of the country.  While it is possible that the Conservatives can make further gains in Quebec, especially if the Bloc should falter, recent history suggests that these gains would be limited given previous Conservative PM Stephen Harper’s inability to get more than one dozen seats in the province despite winning 3 elections overall.

In Quebec opinion surveys show the autonomiste, centre-right Coalition d’Avenir Quebec (CAQ) comfortably ahead in opinion surveys, although facing some headwinds, notably over a cancelled tunnel project in Quebec City.  The separatist Parti-Quebecois (PQ) is a discernable, if distant, second place, amidst 3 other opposition parties.  The Jean Talon byelection in Quebec City might portend the opposition coalescing around Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s PQ, which won the riding for the first time in its history (going back to 1966), or it may be an anomaly since the riding was directly impacted by the decision to cancel the tunnel project.  It can’t be discounted, however, since the southern, river front ridings in Quebec City tend to be more left leaning, Quebec Solidaire (QS) holds the two neighbouring ridings and ran a very close second to CAQ in Jean Talon last general election, carrying nearly half the polls.  It is therefore possible that the PQ win in Jean Talon reinforces the narrative that they, more than anyone else, are the government in waiting.

Governments in Quebec, since the end of the Duplessis Union Nationale era, generally point to a particular government’s best-before date as being 2 full mandates, but with some exceptions (nearly all on the one mandate side, only 1 instance since Maurice Duplessis where a government received 3 consecutive mandates, one of which was a minority, during the Jean Charest years). CAQ would hit the two full mandates with next election in 2026.

We also know that the Parti Quebecois traditionally wins power for the first time by campaigning not on holding a referendum but on offering good government to a province tired of the incumbents (1976 and 1994), in both instances the PQ government called a referendum in the first mandate, lost both times, and then handily won reelection in the subsequent election (either despite, or perhaps because, sovereignty was no longer on the table).  Pauline Marois’ 2012 victory was an outlier since she only won a minority government after campaigning on Jean Charest’s record, and assumably, due at least in part to her minority position did not call a referendum.

So Plamondon might be best placed for his PQ party to succeed the CAQ after 2 terms in 2026, he might campaign on good government, and might make good on his intent to hold a referendum, the next Quebec election campaign would almost certainly be held after the next federal election campaign, while any future Quebec referendum would be well after the next federal election.

Referendum support might potentially increase in the wake of federal Conservative leader Poilievre’s pledge to make Canada ‘the freest country on earth’ since Quebec politics has traditionally been left of centre, is seen as considerably more socially liberal than a number of MPs in the federal Conservative caucus and is aligned more with renewable energy than fossil fuel production (which might also limit the federal Conservatives’ gains in Quebec).

Federal campaigns have rarely turned on the prospects of Quebec referendums.  The 1979 election campaign saw PC leader Joe Clark win power with a minority, with PQ Premier Rene Levesque in power in Quebec.  Clark only had 2 Quebec MPs out of 75.  In the subsequent election in 1980, the campaign was fought over issues such as Clark’s failed attempt to pass a budget which would have raised the tax on gasoline by 18 cents a gallon. 

While the Quebec government was at the time actively debating a referendum question for a plebiscite to be held later that year, and while that might have prompted some swing voters outside of Quebec to consider the federal Liberals as a better alternative to fight a referendum campaign (given their much stronger Quebec representation), most observers felt that the prospect of a Quebec referendum, while not hurting the federal Liberals at the time, was mostly peripheral to the electorate outside of Quebec in 1980, concerned as they were more with the price of energy. 

Likewise, while the 1993 campaign featured for the first time the separatist Bloc Quebecois, much of the election elsewhere was focused on the lethargic state of the economy and the unpopular Goods and Services Tax enacted by the incumbent PC government.

The last two referendum campaigns were led on the federalist side by Liberal Prime Ministers from Quebec (Pierre Trudeau in 1980, Jean Chretien in 1995).  Likewise, they had strong, if not completely harmonious ties with their provincial Liberal counterparts in Quebec, and a fairly deep bench of prominent Quebec politicians to advocate for the federalist side 

By contrast, none of Poilievre’s Quebec caucus has national household name recognition, and the most discernably federalist provincial party, the Quebec Liberal Party, is largely confined to western Montreal and with few ties to the federal Conservatives.   It is true that former Conservative leadership candidate, and former Quebec Premier Jean Charest, was a Liberal, as was Dominique Vien, the now Conservative MP for Bellechasse.  The Conservative MP for Louis-Saint-Laurent, Gerard Deltell, was also previously leader of the CAQs successor, the Action democratique du Quebec ADQ.  Some of the Conservative Quebec MPs have some provincial experience, therefore, but not necessarily on a magnitude that might move the needle in a campaign. Finally, it is also worth noting that during the last leadership campaign, the Quebec caucus overwhelmingly endorsed Jean Charest, with 7 out of 10 MPs, with Poilievre receiving the endorsement of only one caucus member.

So what is the takeaway?

If Poilievre wins in the next federal election (still a big if) and Jean Talon portends the eventual return of the PQ to power in Quebec, he may be faced with the prospect of a Quebec referendum down the road with minimal resources on the federalist side – namely, a small Quebec presence in his caucus, potentially estranged ties with the Quebec Liberals who traditionally spearhead the federalist campaign in referendums and an policy platform less in sync with Quebec voters than elsewhere.  This would be a first in that this could potentially be the weakest federalist coalition yet to campaign in a Quebec independence referendum, if due care is not taken.

This means that Poilievre could risk being the Prime Minister that saw Quebec separate on his watch if he does not take events like Jean Talon into account.

So if I was Poilievre – I would

1. Court both the CAQ and the provincial Liberals (and provincial Conservatives) in the next election
2. Give high profile roles to my Quebec MPs (which he will likely do)
3. Keep Jean Charest’s contact information handy

If I was Plamondon, I would

1. Get enough Solidaire voters on side
2. Campaign on good government in the next provincial election
3. Be prepared to strike fast and strike hard if Poilievre is my counterpart in Ottawa, especially if he proposes something significant that is offside with most of the Quebec electorate