The current CAQ government is trending down in recent opinion polls, as they near the middle of their second mandate with five years in power.  Recent opinion surveys show CAQ falling to third place in the Quebec City region, with the Parti Quebecois or Conservatives leading in the region, depending on the particular survey. 

One of the main issues in the riding is the cancellation of a promised automobile tunnel linking Quebec City with Levis, a decision the Legault government made the spring after the 2022 election, and which reportedly caused many residents in the region to be upset with the incumbent government.

The riding contains the former municipalities of Sillery and Ste-Foy, along with the Universite Laval.  It was first created as the Jean Talon riding in the 1966 election and previously occupied in earlier years areas closer to the centre of Quebec City.  While to date the PQ have never held the riding, it nearly won the riding in 1994 and 1998.  While Quebec City trends more conservative than the province as a whole, the particular localities represented by Jean Talon have not trended conservative as much as some of the more northern ridings in the region.  Since 1993 the federal Conservatives have only won the federal counterpart, Louis Hebert, once, barely, and with those particular polls commensurate with Jean Talon being where the second place Bloc Quebecois finished more strongly.  Provincially Quebec Solidaire has received strong support in the riding, corresponding to their relatively strong showing in the southern parts of Quebec City and election wins in neighbouring Taschereau and Jean Lesage.

While Quebec Solidaire has gained one other seat in a byelection since the 2022 vote, that being the St.-Henri-Ste.-Anne riding held by the former Liberal leader Dominique Anglade in Montreal, there is less hope that they will prevail here on election day.  The PQ has discernably moved ahead in the Quebec City region in recent polls and has consistently claimed second place in province wide opinion polling overall.  Finally, a Leger opinion poll for this byelection puts the PQ at 32 %, CAQ at 30%, with QS at 17% and the Liberals at 16%. 

With this in mind, I am predicting at least 50% chance that the PQ will win the riding, 35% for CAQ and 15% QS, and additionally, a 40% chance that QS will displace CAQ for second place. 

While this would undoubtedly be good news for the PQ, it would not necessarily be more discernable which party, between the PQ and QS, would be seen as the alternative to the governing CAQ.  Since the latter party’s founding in 2006, in large part as a left-wing response to the 2005 neoliberal Pour un Quebec lucide manifesto and has previously rejected cooperation with the other sovereigntist party, the PQ.  Polling suggests a significant age gap between the sovereigntist parties, with younger voters favoring QS 2 to 1 over the PQ, and often with an outright plurality, whereas older voters who are sovereigntist are more apt to stay with the PQ.  If the PQ can demonstrate, however, with this win, in a riding they have never previously held, that they are the default choice for previous CAQ voters, this might help them move past core QS support and in a better position to return to power.  But like neighbouring Ontario where the incumbent government there enjoys a divided opposition as well, it may end up being several election cycles before a badly beaten previous governing party discernably moves out into second place, let alone making a credible bid for power outright.