Preliminary Update before 7 pm drop – Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia only

Senate – Florida – Rubio re-elected; Georgia – goes to runoff with Walker +1; NC Butler, R; Ohio – Vance wins tight race; SC – Scott re-elected; Vermont, Welch replaces Leahy

Governor – all aforementioned states with Governor’s Races returned

Sec. of State – all aforementioned states with Sec. of State races have incumbent parties retain the office (no flipping)

State Legislatures – all aforementioned states with state legislative races have parties currently controlling chambers continue to control respective chambers

Florida 1 Matt Gaetz (Republican) 57% Rebekah Jones (Democratic) 43% 100% Hold
Florida 2 Neal Dunn (Republican) 55% Al Lawson (Democratic) 45% 100% Hold
Florida 3 Kat Cammack (Republican) 56% Danielle Hawk (Democratic) 43% Other 1% 100% Hold
Florida 4 Aaron Bean (Republican) 57% LaShonda Holloway (Democratic) 43% 100% Hold
Florida 5 John Rutherford (Republican) 99% Other 1% 100% Hold
Florida 6 Michael Waltz (Republican) 86% Joe Hannoush (Libertarian) 14% 100% Hold
Florida 7 Cory Mills (Republican) 52% Karen Green (Democratic) 48% 100% Gain
Florida 8 Bill Posey (Republican) 59% Joanne Terry (Democratic) 41% 100% Hold
Florida 9 Scotty Moore (Republican) 47% Darren Soto (Democratic) 53% 100% Hold
Florida 10 Calvin Wimbish (Republican) 41% Maxwell Frost (Democratic) 57% Other 2% 100% Hold
Florida 11 Daniel Webster (Republican) 54% Shante Munns (Democratic) 45% Other 1% 100% Hold
Florida 12 Gus Bilirakis (Republican) 63% Kimberly Walker (Democratic) 37% 100% Hold
Florida 13 Anna Paulina Luna (Republican) 50% Eric Lynn (Democratic) 48% Other 2% 100% Gain
Florida 14 James Judge (Republican) 47% Kathy Castor (Democratic) 53% 100% Hold
Florida 15 Laurel Lee (Republican) 53% Alan Cohn (Democratic) 47% 100% Gain New Seat
Florida 16 Vern Buchanan (Republican) 54% Jan Schneider (Democratic) 46% 100% Hold
Florida 17 Greg Steube (Republican) 55% Andrea Kale (Democratic) 44% Other 1% 100% Hold
Florida 18 Scott Franklin (Republican) 84% Keith Hayden (Independent) 16% 100% Hold
Florida 19 Byron Donalds (Republican) 58% Cindy Banyai (Democratic) 42% 100% Hold
Florida 20 Drew Montez Clark (Republican) 38% Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (Democratic) 62% 100% Hold
Florida 21 Brian Mast (Republican) 54% Corinna Balderramos Robinson (Democratic) 46% 100% Hold
Florida 22 Daniel Franzese (Republican) 47% Lois Frankel (Democratic) 53% 100% Hold
Florida 23 Joe Budd (Republican) 48% Jared Moskowitz (Democratic) 50% Other 2% 100% Hold
Florida 24 Jesus Navarro (Republican) 34% Frederica Wilson (Democratic) 66% 100% Hold
Florida 25 Carla Spalding (Republican) 46% Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Democratic) 54% 100% Hold
Florida 26 Mario Díaz-Balart (Republican) 56% Christine Olivo (Democratic) 44% 100% Hold
Florida 27 María Elvira Salazar (Republican) 54% Annette Taddeo (Democratic) 46% 100% Hold
Florida 28 Carlos A. Giménez (Republican) 57% Robert Asencio (Democratic) 43% 100% Hold
Georgia 1 Buddy Carter (Republican) 61% Wade Herring (Democratic) 39% 100% Hold
Georgia 2 Chris West (Republican) 48% Sanford Bishop (Democratic) 52% 100% Hold
Georgia 3 Drew Ferguson (Republican) 68% Val Almonord (Democratic) 32% 100% Hold
Georgia 4 Jonathan Chavez (Republican) 23% Hank Johnson (Democratic) 77% 100% Hold
Georgia 5 Christian Zimm (Republican) 18% Nikema Williams (Democratic) 82% 100% Hold
Georgia 6 Rich McCormick (Republican) 57% Bob Christian (Democratic) 43% 100% Gain
Georgia 7 Mark Gonsalves (Republican) 45% Lucy McBath (Democratic) 55% 100% Hold
Georgia 8 Austin Scott (Republican) 61% Darrius Butler (Democratic) 39% 100% Hold
Georgia 9 Andrew Clyde (Republican) 67% Mike Ford (Democratic) 33% 100% Hold
Georgia 10 Mike Collins (Republican) 58% Tabitha Johnson-Green (Democratic) 42% 100% Hold
Georgia 11 Barry Loudermilk (Republican) 62% Antonio Daza-Fernandez (Democratic) 38% 100% Hold
Georgia 12 Rick W. Allen (Republican) 59% Liz Johnson (Democratic) 41% 100% Hold
Georgia 13 Caesar Gonzales (Republican) 37% David Scott (Democratic) 63% 100% Hold
Georgia 14 Marjorie Taylor Greene (Republican) 63% Marcus Flowers (Democratic) 33% Other 4% 100% Hold
North Carolina 1 Sandy Smith (Republican) 46% Don Davis (Democratic) 54% 100% Hold
North Carolina 2 Christine Villaverde (Republican) 41% Deborah K. Ross (Democratic) 59% 100% Hold
North Carolina 3 Greg Murphy (Republican) 66% Barbara Gaskins (Democratic) 34% 100% Hold
North Carolina 4 Courtney Geels (Republican) 38% Valerie Foushee (Democratic) 62% 100% Hold
North Carolina 5 Virginia Foxx (Republican) 64% Kyle Parrish (Democratic) 36% 100% Hold
North Carolina 6 Christian Castelli (Republican) 48% Kathy Manning (Democratic) 50% Other 2% 100% Hold
North Carolina 7 David Rouzer (Republican) 62% Charles Graham (Democratic) 38% 100% Hold
North Carolina 8 Dan Bishop (Republican) 64% Scott Huffman (Democratic) 36% 100% Hold
North Carolina 9 Richard Hudson (Republican) 58% Ben Clark (Democratic) 42% 100% Hold
North Carolina 10 Patrick McHenry (Republican) 68% Pam Genant (Democratic) 32% 100% Hold
North Carolina 11 Chuck Edwards (Republican) 53% Jasmine Beach-Ferrara (Democratic) 43% Other 4% 100% Hold
North Carolina 12 Tyler Lee (Republican) 39% Alma Adams (Democratic) 61% 100% Hold
North Carolina 13 Bo Hines (Republican) 50% Wiley Nickel (Democratic) 50% 100% Hold
North Carolina 14 Pat Harrigan (Republican) 50% Jeff Jackson (Democratic) 50% 100% Gain
Ohio 1 Steve Chabot (Republican) 50% Greg Landsman (Democratic) 50% 100% Hold
Ohio 2 Brad Wenstrup (Republican) 63% Samantha Meadows (Democratic) 37% 100% Hold
Ohio 3 Lee Stahley (Republican) 33% Joyce Beatty (Democratic) 67% 100% Hold
Ohio 4 Jim Jordan (Republican) 64% Tamie Wilson (Democratic) 36% 100% Hold
Ohio 5 Bob Latta (Republican) 62% Craig Swartz (Democratic) 38% 100% Hold
Ohio 6 Bill Johnson (Republican) 66% Louis Lyras (Democratic) 34% 100% Hold
Ohio 7 Max Miller (Republican) 57% Matthew Diemer (Democratic) 43% 100% Hold
Ohio 8 Warren Davidson (Republican) 64% Vanessa Enoch (Democratic) 36% 100% Hold
Ohio 9 J. R. Majewski (Republican) 49% Marcy Kaptur (Democratic) 51% 100% Hold
Ohio 10 Mike Turner (Republican) 56% David Esrati (Democratic) 44% 100% Hold
Ohio 11 Eric Brewer (Republican) 32% Shontel Brown (Democratic) 68% 100% Hold
Ohio 12 Troy Balderson (Republican) 63% Amy Rippel-Elton (Democratic) 37% 100% Hold
Ohio 13 Madison Gesiotto (Republican) 50% Emilia Sykes (Democratic) 50% 100% Gain
Ohio 14 David Joyce (Republican) 58% Matt Kilboy (Democratic) 42% 100% Hold
Ohio 15 Mike Carey (Republican) 56% Gary Josephson (Democratic) 44% 100% Hold
South Carolina 1 Nancy Mace (Republican) 55% Annie Andrews (Democratic) 43% Other 2% 100%
South Carolina 2 Joe Wilson (Republican) 58% Juddson Larkins (Democratic) 42% 100%
South Carolina 3 Jeff Duncan (Republican) 99% Other 1% 100%
South Carolina 4 William Timmons (Republican) 64% Ken Hill (Democratic) 34% Other 2% 100%
South Carolina 5 Ralph Norman (Republican) 63% Evangeline Hundley (Democratic) 36% Other 1% 100%
South Carolina 6 Duke Buckner (Republican) 35% Jim Clyburn (Democratic) 65% 100%
South Carolina 7 Russell Fry (Republican) 64% Daryl Scott (Democratic) 36% 100%
Vermont at-large Liam Madden (Republican) 32% Becca Balint (Democratic) 59% Other 9% 100% Hold
Virginia 1 Rob Wittman (Republican) 61% Herbert Jones Jr. (Democratic) 37% Other 2% 100% Hold
Virginia 2 Jen Kiggans (Republican) 50% Elaine Luria (Democratic) 50% 100% Gain
Virginia 3 Terry Namkung (Republican) 35% Bobby Scott (Democratic) 65% 100% Hold
Virginia 4 Leon Benjamin (Republican) 42% Donald McEachin (Democratic) 58% 100% Hold
Virginia 5 Bob Good (Republican) 55% Joshua Throneburg (Democratic) 45% 100% Hold
Virginia 6 Ben Cline (Republican) 67% Jennifer Lewis (Democratic) 33% 100% Hold
Virginia 7 Yesli Vega (Republican) 50% Abigail Spanberger (Democratic) 50% 100% Hold
Virginia 8 Karina Lipsman (Republican) 29% Don Beyer (Democratic) 69% Other 2% 100% Hold
Virginia 9 Morgan Griffith (Republican) 68% Taysha DeVaughan (Democratic) 32% 100% Hold
Virginia 10 Hung Cao (Republican) 47% Jennifer Wexton (Democratic) 53% 100% Hold
Virginia 11 James Myles (Republican) 27% Gerry Connolly (Democratic) 73% 100% Hold
West Virginia 1 Carol Miller (Republican) 73% Lacy Watson (Democratic) 25% Other 2% 100% Hold
West Virginia 2 Alex Mooney (Republican) 68% Barry Lee Wendell (Democratic) 32% 100% Hold

Senate – close race Indiana but Republican win; Kentucky Paul by wide margin

House – no changes between parties in any congressional seats

Secretary of State – R win in Indiana

State Legislatures – Republicans retain both chambers both states

Quebec Election

Monday, October 3, 2022

Coalition Avenir du Quebec (93)

Parti Liberal  (20)

Quebec Solidaire (9)

Parti Quebecois (3)

New York 19th Congressional District – Hudson River Valley … outgoing incumbent Antonio Delgado, D

Likely Republican pickup – Marc Molinaro around 53% over Democrat Pat Ryan, 47%

New York 23rd Congressional District – southwestern corner of state on Lake Erie … outgoing incumbent Tom Reed, R

Likely Republican hold, Joe Sempolinski, R over Max Della Pia, D, 60-40%

The Republicans are expected to prevail in the special election today in Alaska, after the death of long time Congressman Don Young. Two Republicans, Nick Begich III (of a prominent political family) and former Governor and 2008 Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin are facing Democrat Mary Sattler Peltola, Independent Al Gross also advanced from the June 11 blanket primary, but later withdrew from the race.

Voters rank candidates in order of preference, the third place candidate drops out and their support is redistributed amongst the two top vote getters. Polling gives Peltola a solid 40% plus of the vote on the Democrat side, with Begich and Palin roughly tied at around 30%, but with Begich maybe one or two points ahead, but within the margin of error.

Depending on what occurs with the Republicans, since their vote appears to be evenly split with one of them dropping off, would determine who ultimately prevails. Palin’s supporters are more inclined to stay with the Republicans, whereas Begich voters are more apt to consider the Democrat Peltola. The Alaska Survey Research poll suggests that, in two separate pollings, around 10% of Palin voters (of her total) might cross over to the Democrat, but the rest continuing to support the Republican Begich. Begich voters, who appear to pull from less populist and more establishment Republican leanings (his family has a long history of Democrat involvement in Alaska politics), might be enough to give Peltola a win (by a razor thin, within margin-of-error if so). The polling suggests up to a third of his support is more inclined to change parties.

So the key piece is which Republican moves to the second round, since Peltola’s base 40% is almost certain to place first. If it is Palin who drops out, Begich becomes the favourite. If Begich drops out, it becomes a lot less certain but in my view still likely to favour Palin, however close the final result.

Final prediction, Begich edging out Palin on the first ballot and winning by 10% over Peltola, give or take a couple percentage points, on the second round. This would to be best of my knowledge be the first of the Begich family to be an elected Republican in Alaska history.

One certainty is that the blanket, ranked choice party system is sure to initiate more interest and debate, as both pundits and academics consider the implications of ranked choice voting as it relates to both partisan intensity and partisan strength overall.

Republican Brad Finstad, around 55% of vote

Democrat Jeffrey Ettinger, around 40% of vote

the Legal Marijuana Now and Grassroots Legalize Cannabis parties, around 5% of vote

Miramichi-Neguac – Liberal hold

Southwest Miramichi – Bay du Vin – likely PC hold due to collapse in support People’s Party which polled strong in 2020, but with an outside chance for Liberal pickup

Incumbent Filemon Vela Jr., D, vacated the seat at the end of March to take a position at a lobbying firm. This area in Texas has been trending more Republican, and Joe Biden carried this congressional seat in the presidential vote by less than 5 points. A decade earlier, both Democratic presidential and congressional candidates routinely carried this area by a 60-40 margin, but this significantly narrowed in 2020 to a smaller 14 point win for Vela and smaller still for Biden, south Texas being one of the more noted areas in the country where Donald Trump grew his support considerably over 2016.

Mayra Flores is representing the Republicans, and Dan Sanchez the Democrats. However this is a nonpartisan blanket primary where two other candidates, Democrat Rene Coronado and Republican Juana Cantu-Cabrera are also on the ballot, raising the possibility that if no candidate wins a majority of votes, it will go to a runoff prior to the November midterms.

Regardless of a runoff or not, it is expected that Mayra Flores will pick up this currently constituted seat for the Republicans. She is also the designated November Republican nominee against Democrat Vincente Gonzalez, who currently represents the 15th congressional district. However the November race will be fought on reconstituted lines widely considered to be more favourable to Democratic chances.

In the meantime, national Democrats have largely sat out this race, while the Republicans have significantly outraised their Democratic rivals by what CNN reported was a 20 to 1 margin.