The Republicans are expected to prevail in the special election today in Alaska, after the death of long time Congressman Don Young. Two Republicans, Nick Begich III (of a prominent political family) and former Governor and 2008 Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin are facing Democrat Mary Sattler Peltola, Independent Al Gross also advanced from the June 11 blanket primary, but later withdrew from the race.

Voters rank candidates in order of preference, the third place candidate drops out and their support is redistributed amongst the two top vote getters. Polling gives Peltola a solid 40% plus of the vote on the Democrat side, with Begich and Palin roughly tied at around 30%, but with Begich maybe one or two points ahead, but within the margin of error.

Depending on what occurs with the Republicans, since their vote appears to be evenly split with one of them dropping off, would determine who ultimately prevails. Palin’s supporters are more inclined to stay with the Republicans, whereas Begich voters are more apt to consider the Democrat Peltola. The Alaska Survey Research poll suggests that, in two separate pollings, around 10% of Palin voters (of her total) might cross over to the Democrat, but the rest continuing to support the Republican Begich. Begich voters, who appear to pull from less populist and more establishment Republican leanings (his family has a long history of Democrat involvement in Alaska politics), might be enough to give Peltola a win (by a razor thin, within margin-of-error if so). The polling suggests up to a third of his support is more inclined to change parties.

So the key piece is which Republican moves to the second round, since Peltola’s base 40% is almost certain to place first. If it is Palin who drops out, Begich becomes the favourite. If Begich drops out, it becomes a lot less certain but in my view still likely to favour Palin, however close the final result.

Final prediction, Begich edging out Palin on the first ballot and winning by 10% over Peltola, give or take a couple percentage points, on the second round. This would to be best of my knowledge be the first of the Begich family to be an elected Republican in Alaska history.

One certainty is that the blanket, ranked choice party system is sure to initiate more interest and debate, as both pundits and academics consider the implications of ranked choice voting as it relates to both partisan intensity and partisan strength overall.