The snap poll, called by NDP Premier David Eby two days after the resignation of BC Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay, received some criticism as being without precedent in Canadian history – an incumbent calling an election shortly after the Official Opposition becoming leaderless (not having an accepted permanent replacement)
Previously the NDP were ahead in polling, by a few points on average. The BC Conservatives since the last election suffered dissension within their ranks, with the breakaway OneBC and British Columbia parties forming with disaffected former BC Conservatives.
The BC Liberals, forming government from 2001-17, were wiped out in the last election as BC United. A number of prominent former MLAs sought to continue a more centrist political movement with CentreBC forming in 2025.
Neither OneBC nor CentreBC are expected to do particularly well in this election, although the Green Party, led by Emily Lowan, is expected to make gains in the popular vote, conventionally seen as more (negatively) impactful to the NDP.
The BC Conservatives executive board selected MLA Lorne Dickerson as interim leader, with some expressed intent to make his position in the party permanent should he become elected Premier. Dickerson has previously been involved in publishing and financial consulting prior to his first election to the BC Legislature in 2020 as a BC Liberal
The BC Conservatives last won power in their own right in 1928 under Simon Fraser Tolmie, with the Great Depression and internal divisions contributing to his defeat to Liberal Thomas Dufferin “Duff” Pattullo in 1933. They did help form a coalition government with the Liberals in 1945 to help keep the left-wing Co-operative Commonwealth Federation out of power, however by the early 1950s the primary right-of-centre political standard bearer was the Social Credit Party, governing from 1952-72 and then from 1975-91. The Conservatives, (or the Progressive Conservatives) during those years were routinely shut out of the legislature altogether, although on occasion they might pick up one or two seats (1972, 1975).
BC politics has generally tended towards polarization, with the CCF/NDP being the main force for left-of-centre politics since 1933, and the centre to right-of-centre being variously represented by Liberals, Coalition, Social Credit, Liberals and once again the Conservatives after Liberals losses in 2020 and the collapse of BC United in 2024.
This election promises to be no different with respect to polarization, with more than three quarters of the seats expected to be won by margins of 5% or more, and more than a third of the seats by 20% or more. The election will be won primarily with tight margins in the lower mainland suburban ridings, with little change expected in the BC Interior (largely Conservative) and Vancouver and Victoria (largely NDP)
Throughout all of the interior part of the province, 25 ridings being identified in various interior regions, the two ridings to keep an eye on are expected to be Kootenay Central, with NDP cabinet minister Brittny Anderson expected to be in tight race, and Vernon-Lumby with NDP incumbent and cabinet minister Harwinder Sandhu expected to struggle to hold on to her seat there. Historically Vernon-Lumby has supported right-leaning parties, this might be the one pickup for Conservatives, who already hold twenty-one or the twenty-five seats in the interior.
Moving towards Vancouver in the Fraser Valley – Langley -Maple Ridge part of the province, the BC Conservatives already holding 9 out of the 10 ridings, Maple Ridge – Pitt Meadows, held by NDP Education and Childcare Minister Lisa Beare, is expected to be the closest riding in this area.
On the lower mainland, the BC Conservatives might win as many as ten seats, with a high portion of ridings being decided by margins of less than 10%. The NDP are expected to go from their four seats in Surrey to possibly one or none. They might be able to hang onto their Coquitlam seats more readily, while Burnaby promises to be the area where NDP losses could become more of a rout. The NDP won all 5 Burnaby seats last time. They might lose one seat at current polling levels, or as many as four.
In Vancouver city proper, the left-of-centre orientation of the city is expected to hold up, (a Green Party candidate, Pete Fry, just being elected as mayor recently). Possible flips to the Conservatives might include Langara and Yaletown, but probably not much else. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky is expected to return Green Jeremy Valeriote to the legislature.
On Vancouver Island and Victoria, up to half the races might be competitive within five points, with Juan de Fuca – Malahat and Ladysmith Oceanside being the likeliest areas for BC Conservative gains. Otherwise, a lot of the area is expected to remain NDP orange, and Emily Lowan expected to hold Saanich North and the Islands for the Greens
The main takeaway of the election might be that the trend of incumbent Premiers calling early elections (such as Houston in Nova Scotia and Ford in Ontario) and receiving strong majorities might be at an end. National crisis governments, such as during COVID-19 and trade tensions with the United States, generally tend to favour incumbents but as former CAQ Premier Christine Frechette in Quebec can attest, that does not always guarantee a return to power. The NDP might be defeated, but most of their urban support will remain intact, and the early election call will factor prominently in any post-election autopsy. The BC Conservatives, despite all the floor crossing and third-party breakaways, led by an interim leader, would achieve an historic victory, their first in 98 years.