Record-breaking Popular Vote Low for a very thin Majority PQ Government
Despite low levels (<30%) of the popular vote, the Parti Quebecois as led by Paul St.-Pierre Plamondon, is looking at a very small majority, largely due to vote splits from the other parties and the inability of any of them to form a strong province-wide opposition to the separatist PQ Party. Their vote is the most efficient, in many cases taking ridings on 2 or 3 way splits of the non-PQ vote. Reminiscent of 1994, where the PQ was expected to win, ended up with a strong majority but only tied the Liberals in popular vote.
Liberals, projected to be Official Opposition, look to improve on their popular vote total, strengthen their hold on traditional Liberal ridings in and around Montreal, but do not look to make significant gains outside of their urban base
Quebec Solidaire, while declining in vote share, manages to hang on to more than half of their seats from 2022, and continue to be a force in urban areas of the province
The Conservatives, looking to make gains for the first time since the Union Nationale last won seats in 1976, are expected to do well in the Quebec City region and central parts of the province, more or less aligned to those areas where the federal Conservatives hold ridings
The governing CAQ suffers a devasting defeat, (as has been expected for the last several years), although they are not wiped out (as has been predicted by multiple pundits), managing to salvage representation in the Mauricie areas
All main party leaders are expected to win the seats they are running for
The most likely outcome, (unless the PQ can expand their majority through by-elections or defections from other parties, which PM Carney has successfully done to achieve a majority in Ottawa), would be an election call in less than 4 years’ time to seek a stronger mandate in the National Assembly
Caution should be used in extrapolating support for an independence referendum. A strong majority of Quebecois, per recent polling, remain opposed to independence. The federal Liberal Party continues to poll strongly in the province. The PQ win is more to replace the current (very unpopular) government and is similar to their wins in 1976 and 1994, where the campaign was more about good governance
Finally, it should be noted that should the PQ form a majority government with less than 33% of the vote, that (as best as I have researched) would be a record low percentage of the popular vote tied to an overall seat majority. The previous record holder for a majority government with low popular vote was the UK General Election in 2024, with Labour getting a strong majority with only 33.7% of the popular vote, (again, profiting from vote splits not dissimilar to Quebec this year). The previously record in Quebec for lowest popular vote tied to a majority was in 2018, where 37.4% was enough for then-Premier Francois Legault to form a robust majority government of 74 seats.
While no other party is expected to come close to forming a government in Quebec this year (assuming the polls are at least somewhat accurate), I would put the odds of a PQ majority vs. minority are 60%-40%, respectively, reflecting the tight margins in many of the individual races. I would give the second-place Liberals a 95% chance of forming the Official Opposition.