ERIC Votes … Election Predictions, Results and Analysis

Senate – close race Indiana but Republican win; Kentucky Paul by wide margin

House – no changes between parties in any congressional seats

Secretary of State – R win in Indiana

State Legislatures – Republicans retain both chambers both states

Quebec Election

Monday, October 3, 2022

Coalition Avenir du Quebec (93)

Parti Liberal  (20)

Quebec Solidaire (9)

Parti Quebecois (3)

New York 19th Congressional District – Hudson River Valley … outgoing incumbent Antonio Delgado, D

Likely Republican pickup – Marc Molinaro around 53% over Democrat Pat Ryan, 47%

New York 23rd Congressional District – southwestern corner of state on Lake Erie … outgoing incumbent Tom Reed, R

Likely Republican hold, Joe Sempolinski, R over Max Della Pia, D, 60-40%

The Republicans are expected to prevail in the special election today in Alaska, after the death of long time Congressman Don Young. Two Republicans, Nick Begich III (of a prominent political family) and former Governor and 2008 Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin are facing Democrat Mary Sattler Peltola, Independent Al Gross also advanced from the June 11 blanket primary, but later withdrew from the race.

Voters rank candidates in order of preference, the third place candidate drops out and their support is redistributed amongst the two top vote getters. Polling gives Peltola a solid 40% plus of the vote on the Democrat side, with Begich and Palin roughly tied at around 30%, but with Begich maybe one or two points ahead, but within the margin of error.

Depending on what occurs with the Republicans, since their vote appears to be evenly split with one of them dropping off, would determine who ultimately prevails. Palin’s supporters are more inclined to stay with the Republicans, whereas Begich voters are more apt to consider the Democrat Peltola. The Alaska Survey Research poll suggests that, in two separate pollings, around 10% of Palin voters (of her total) might cross over to the Democrat, but the rest continuing to support the Republican Begich. Begich voters, who appear to pull from less populist and more establishment Republican leanings (his family has a long history of Democrat involvement in Alaska politics), might be enough to give Peltola a win (by a razor thin, within margin-of-error if so). The polling suggests up to a third of his support is more inclined to change parties.

So the key piece is which Republican moves to the second round, since Peltola’s base 40% is almost certain to place first. If it is Palin who drops out, Begich becomes the favourite. If Begich drops out, it becomes a lot less certain but in my view still likely to favour Palin, however close the final result.

Final prediction, Begich edging out Palin on the first ballot and winning by 10% over Peltola, give or take a couple percentage points, on the second round. This would to be best of my knowledge be the first of the Begich family to be an elected Republican in Alaska history.

One certainty is that the blanket, ranked choice party system is sure to initiate more interest and debate, as both pundits and academics consider the implications of ranked choice voting as it relates to both partisan intensity and partisan strength overall.

Republican Brad Finstad, around 55% of vote

Democrat Jeffrey Ettinger, around 40% of vote

the Legal Marijuana Now and Grassroots Legalize Cannabis parties, around 5% of vote

Miramichi-Neguac – Liberal hold

Southwest Miramichi – Bay du Vin – likely PC hold due to collapse in support People’s Party which polled strong in 2020, but with an outside chance for Liberal pickup

Incumbent Filemon Vela Jr., D, vacated the seat at the end of March to take a position at a lobbying firm. This area in Texas has been trending more Republican, and Joe Biden carried this congressional seat in the presidential vote by less than 5 points. A decade earlier, both Democratic presidential and congressional candidates routinely carried this area by a 60-40 margin, but this significantly narrowed in 2020 to a smaller 14 point win for Vela and smaller still for Biden, south Texas being one of the more noted areas in the country where Donald Trump grew his support considerably over 2016.

Mayra Flores is representing the Republicans, and Dan Sanchez the Democrats. However this is a nonpartisan blanket primary where two other candidates, Democrat Rene Coronado and Republican Juana Cantu-Cabrera are also on the ballot, raising the possibility that if no candidate wins a majority of votes, it will go to a runoff prior to the November midterms.

Regardless of a runoff or not, it is expected that Mayra Flores will pick up this currently constituted seat for the Republicans. She is also the designated November Republican nominee against Democrat Vincente Gonzalez, who currently represents the 15th congressional district. However the November race will be fought on reconstituted lines widely considered to be more favourable to Democratic chances.

In the meantime, national Democrats have largely sat out this race, while the Republicans have significantly outraised their Democratic rivals by what CNN reported was a 20 to 1 margin.

Overall results anticipated to be PCs 78 and 38.15% of vote; NDP 33 and 23.89% of vote; L 12 and 26.78% of vote; Green 1 seat and 7.35% of vote, others 0 seats and 3.83% of vote

Despite winning more votes than the NDP, the Liberals end up with less seats due to the fact that they are the clear second place party in the 905, but they win no seats there

The PCs don’t bleed a lot of support to the more right-wing New Blue and Ontario parties, which are shut out of the legislature; they pick up several seats in Brampton, Essex and Oshawa, with an outside chance of gaining Niagara Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and St. Catharines, adding to the narrative of the PCs winning the blue collar, union vote.

The Liberals gain in Toronto and Kingston; retain Glengarry-Prescott-Russell due to a floor crossing, they have an outside chance of winning more seats in downtown Toronto such as Toronto Centre, Spadina-Fort York, University-Rosedale and Don Valley North; leader Steven Del Duca will ultimately fail to win Vaughan-Woodbridge, and coupled with a low showing in seats, it may cast his future leadership in doubt

The NDP are primarily on the defensive, with likely losses in Brampton, Essex, Oshawa and Toronto. The Welland Canal ridings of Niagara Centre and St. Catharines are anticipated to be closely fought, as well as a vote split in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, although currently they are projected to retain those three ridings. Andrea Horwath, after her 4th try for the Premier’s chair, may be replaced prior to the next election expected in 2026.

The Greens are expected to retain Guelph for leader Mike Schreiner, who had a very strong performance in the leaders’ debates. Although their popular vote total is expected to trend up, it will likely not translate into any additional seats. Parry Sound-Muskoka is likely to be the next closely fought riding for the Greens, who historically do very well there, (benefiting also from the lack of a Liberal candidate on the ballot) but the riding’s long history of PC wins gives them the slight edge on holding the riding.

Originally I was going to post a picture of Niagara Falls for this narrative but the falls’ turbulence really does not symbolize an election where the vast majority of ridings are retained by their respective parties. Even if there are raging undercurrents beneath the surface, (or a lot more turbulence in Ottawa, for that matter) this election is on the surface more like a tranquil lake in cottage country on a summer’s day. While about 3 times as many races will be closely fought, only 9 ridings out of 124 are actually projected to change hands (changing hands as defined by the results of the last vote – whether a general election or by-election, as opposed to floor crossings). Premier Doug Ford has, at least according to polling, not always commanded the affections of Ontario voters, but in a post-pandemic era where residents want some semblance of normalcy, it appears that a strong plurality are ready to return the Ford PCs for a second term, perhaps grudgingly giving them a passing grade in navigating through more turbulent waters since the last election.