The first observation I need to make about PEI politics and projections on the riding level, which can also be true of results in Yukon, Newfoundland and other localities where the electorate is around 10,000 or less a district, is that there is absolutely no way I can presume to know all the local dynamics on the ground, where personal contact, name recognition amongst neighbours and perception in the local communities will often factor as prominently, if not more so, than party labels. To be sure, those dynamics can be in play in contests with a larger electorate, but the sheer limitations of personal contact with candidates having to convince tens of thousands, (as opposed to hundreds or thousands) for their vote makes this logically a more limited factor than issues, leaders and party affiliation.
That said, PEI polling (very limited this election season), political history (both with respect to parties and ridings) and contestants make a number of trend lines and likely scenarios quite clear.
The first dynamic is that the incumbent PC government is sitting on a consistent polling lead of 20+ percentage points, and has been for the past 3 years. While this is the same government that presided over pandemic measures and is experiencing ongoing challenges with health care, the Premier’s popularity is high, the PEI economy has expanded post-pandemic and the population growth rate is one of the highest, if not the highest, in the country. The current polling placing the incumbent government’s support at half the electorate portends a near sweep of the ridings, especially as the opposition is unusually divided between the Official Opposition Greens, the Liberals and the NDP. At somewhat higher levels of support, incumbent governments have nearly swept the province in the 1989, 1993, 2000 elections (2 Liberal and 1 PC, respectively), although only in 1935 did a party win a complete sweep (in this particular case, the challenging Liberals to the incumbent Conservative government in the midst of the Great Depression).
The election could theoretically replicate the 1935 complete sweep, (especially with Green and Liberal support running basically neck and neck for second place), but it is unlikely to materialize, with some parts of the province having sufficiently concentrated pockets of support for the opposition parties.
Of the 27 seats, I project the PCs will win at least 22, a gain of 9 from the last election (and a gain of 7 overall from current standings after 2 by-election pickups). The 5 remaining seats that the opposition may win would be divided between Greens, Liberals and the NDP, with the Liberals the slight favourites to reclaim Official Opposition status.
First, 2 notable PC wins – Charlottetown – Brighton – projecting that former PC leader Rob Lantz picks this up for the PCs. Formerly held by Ole Hammarlund for the Greens, the incumbent lost re-nomination. In addition, the NDP Leader, Michelle Neill, who was widely seen as having performed well in the leadership debate, is running here and will likely split the non-PC vote that much further as opposed to flipping this seat orange. Lantz previously ran in this riding and lost by 24 votes (less than 1%) during the 2015 election when he led the party. His brother Jeff Lantz had previously represented the riding during the Pat Binns government some 20 years prior.
Cornwall Meadowbank – this was the lone Liberal holdout in the 2000 PC Binn’s near-sweep. The last time it had PC representation was in 1986 as 2nd Queen’s. The prior Liberal incumbent, Health McDonald, resigned after running (and ultimately being elected) for federal Malpeque riding. In late 2021, PC Mark McLane edged out the Liberal to pick this riding up for the PCs, breaking a 35 year losing streak. Former but given the lack of incumbency advantage, I am projecting this is likely to stay (however narrowly) in the PC column, although this will certainly be a race to watch. (The Liberals had this advantage in retaining the riding in 2000.)
In western PEI, the only franco-majority riding, Evagenline – Miscouche is open after Liberal incumbent Sonny Gallant is not running again. While the PCs have occasionally held the riding, the decline of Green support and the historically high level of Liberal support (routinely surpassing 60-70% in prior elections) make this one of the more likely holds for the Liberals, represented by local councilor and hockey coach Pat McLellan.
One riding further west, along Egmont Bay, O’Leary – Inverness is shaping up to be a tight 3 way race between the PCs, Liberals and New Democrats. Liberal incumbent Robert Henderson served as a prominent cabinet minister in both the prior Liberal Robert Ghiz and Wade MacLauchlan governments and has generally polled well in his re-elections, especially considering the occasional strong NDP challenge. That NDP challenge comes from Dr. Herb Dickieson, to date the only NDP MLA elected in PEI, back in 1996. While he has not broken 40% in any race thus far, he is generally seen as popular and has polled at least a third of the vote both in his unsuccessful attempt at re-election in 2000 as well as another unsuccessful challenge against Henderson in 2019. PC beef and dairy farmer Daniel MacDonald might be buoyed by favourable PC polling numbers and a potential Liberal/NDP split to flip this riding blue. Then again, a declining Green vote may consolidate behind either the Liberals, NDP (or perhaps even the PCs) to push one of them over the line by a more comfortable margin.
Finally, at the very western end of PEI pointing towards Ile Anticosti 100 plus miles north in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Tignish – Palmer Road, Liberal Hal Perry is running for re-election. Both a former PC, and then Liberal cabinet minister, he polled strong in the 2019 election and stands to benefit from the lack of a Green candidate on the ballot.
The Liberal leader Sharon Cameron’s election bid is notable for both her promise to serve concurrently as Health Minister (if elected Premier) and presently to contest Green Leader Dr. Peter Bevan-Barker in New Haven – Rocky Point, not far from Charlottetown. I am currently projecting Cameron to poll maybe a fifth of the vote in the riding, given Dr. Bevan-Baker’s relative strong stature in the riding, combined with his 2 term incumbency and the ascendant PCs likely pulling at least some support from Bevan-Barker. While a successful Cameron candidacy in the riding would likely cement the Liberals as once again being the clear opposition to the governing PCs, more likely than not she will fail to carry the riding and the Liberal caucus will select another interim leader in the legislature.
The Green’s two best prospects are in New Haven – Rocky Point, and less likely, but still possible, in Charlottetown – Victoria Park, where incumbent Karla Bernard polled very strongly in the previous election against both a Liberal cabinet minister, Richard Brown and then-NDP leader Joe Byrne. While PC Tim Keizer is running again for the party this time, he will have to gain a large swing to make up for his 21% showing in 2019. The Liberals may or may not replicate Mr. Brown’s 28%, while Byrne might retain a comparable tenth of the vote as last time, albeit no longer as the party leader. For these reasons, if the Greens do return any incumbents apart from Bevan-Barker, it will most likely be in Charlottetown – Victoria Park.
The ridings that the Green’s will likely lose include Charlottetown – Belvedere, where incumbent Hannah Bell is not running for re-election. This was one riding they picked up with Ms. Bell in a 2017 by-election that arguably increased their overall electability in the election 2 years later. This time, Ms. Bell was quoted as saying that with Premier King’s early election call, that the Greens simply weren’t ready.
This is not to say that the other Green ridings couldn’t stay Green after Monday, it is just simply that given the decline in Green support and increase in PC support relative to 2019, it would not take a significant swing in any of the other ridings they hold, (with the possible exception of Summerside – South Drive) to see PC gains. This includes incumbents Michele Beaton in Mermaid – Stratford (near Charlottetown – PCs need 4% Green to PC swing) and then the Summerside-area ridings of Tyne Valley – Sherbrooke (incumbent Trish Atlass, PCs need just over a 1% swing); Summerside – Wilmot (incumbent and Deputy Leader Lynne Lund, PCs need a 3-4% swing) and Summerside -South Drive (incumbent Steve Howard – in this case the incumbent Liberal cabinet minister he defeated had a strong showing, which complicates the necessary swing calculation for the PCs, if the Liberal vote remains steady it would be around an 11% point swing).
Rounding out the list is the NDP prospects – as previously mentioned their likely strongest shot is O’Leary – Inverness with Dr. Dickieson, they will likely perform strongly in Charlottetown with current leader Neill in Charlottetown – Brighton and former leader Byrne in Charlottetown – Victoria Park. One other notable riding, for at least a strong showing, though likely no gain, is the Stanhope – Marshfield riding just north of Charlottetown where Marian White, NDP candidate, is the only candidate other than PC incumbent Bloyce Thompson, who is likely to retain two thirds of the vote.
In the end, the Liberals with strength in western PEI, are likely to regain official opposition with two seats, Evangeline – Miscouche and Tignish – Palmer Road. Either they or the NDP win O’Leary-Inverness, (I’ll give the Liberals the slight edge there), and Dr. Bevan-Baker keeps the Greens on the board with New Haven – Rocky Point.
Nationally, this will likely not have significant implications … the federal leaders have not had a significant presence in the campaign, the Greens mirror their downward shift as seen nationally, the federal Conservatives may see limited upside as the PEI PCs are seen as leaning more on the Progressive than Conservative side of their name (King was reportedly explicit around the last federal election campaign in distinguishing the PEI PCs as separate from the federal Conservatives). Finally, the Atlantic provinces overall have not resoundingly rejected the Liberals, who remain viable in New Brunswick and Newfoundland polling. Even in losing today, the Liberals might still regain their traditional position as one of the two main contending PEI parties.