ERIC Votes … Election Predictions, Results and Analysis

Republican Connie Conway expected to win 60% + of vote over Democrat Lourin Hubbard on June 7th vote. Special election called after the resignation of Devin Nunes, R on January 1, 2022. Nonpartisan blanket primary was held April 5th.

Non-sectarian parties make clear gains, SF maintains support and DUP continues decline

Sinn Fein – 28 Seats +1 from 2017

Alliance – 18 Seats +10

UUP – 16 Seats +6

SDLP – 10 Seats -2

DUP – 9 Seats -19

TUV – 4 Seats +3

Green – 2 Seats no change

People Before Profit 1 Seat, no change

Two Unionist Independents +1

Overall Totals – Republican/Nationalists 38 down 1 seat

Loyalist/Unionist – 31 … down 8 seats

Non-Sectarian – 21 … up 9 seats

• Northern Ireland out of Canada, the UK and the US is one of the more complicated and layered jurisdictions when it comes to voting … as far as I’m concerned only historical Louisiana and current Newfoundland voting patterns show similar levels of complexity or unpredictability
• Brexit has complicated the political calculus for Northern Ireland with the trilemma of no land or sea borders between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and the United Kingdom respectively as well as no UK participation in the European Single Market/European Union Customs Union; Northern Ireland did not vote for Brexit, predominant opposition came from Catholic and non-sectarian sections of the electorate … the soft border between Northern Ireland the and Republic of Ireland was a cornerstone of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 which is widely seen as having turned the page on the sectarian Troubles which afflicted the area in the three decades prior
• The Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement provides for a sea border arrangement avoiding a hard land border on Ireland and allowing for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK customs union and internal market
• The Northern Ireland Assembly has the power after December 31, 2024 to either continue to terminate the arrangement
• Despite the backdrop of Brexit considerations, a number of non-sectarian issues such as affordability and health care have been the mainstay of the Sinn Fein campaign, with leader Michelle O’Neill likely to emerge as the largest party in the Assembly.  (I recall the PQ in Quebec in 1976 taking a similar tactic – the campaign was on good governance, not separatism, although to be clear the PQ never had any formal relationship with the FLQ, whereas SF has been commonly associated as being the political arm of the IRA). Sinn Fein has moved in a significantly different direction since unionists and SDLP supporters voted tactically to defeat then leader Gerry Adams in Belfast West in the 1992 UK election
• Northern Ireland leadership in a current state of suspension … strong likelihood that if O’Neil’s party does take the largest seats that unionists will not nominate a deputy leader per the terms of the Good Friday agreement, which may lead to direct rule from Westminster
• The DUP after a leadership crisis in the past several years will likely shrink significantly, but with the UUP and TUV picking up most of the slack
• The non-sectarian Alliance Party also slated to pick up support … overall non-sectarians will gain at the expense of unionists, possibly republicans … if they emerge as the second largest party per the terms of the party sharing agreement they could not nominate a deputy minister since they are ‘other’ as opposed to Unionist or Nationalist
• The overall picture is one of further instability in Stormont and uncertainty with respect to Northern Ireland’s future … if the unionists end up blocking O’Neill from taking office through refusal to nominate a deputy first minister, this may further intensify the momentum towards a border poll and possible reunification … paradoxically if O’Neill does become first minister and Northern Ireland continues to government under a more or less state of devolution, that would likely disincentivize any significant push towards a border poll/unification
• In recent years the DUP has steered more or less a course between the more moderate UUP and the more hardline TUV … their collapse may lead to a more divided unionist block with hardliners isolated, and the electorate overall ready to look more for compromise than a return to the troubles
• *** Predictions on basis of party seat won by constituency, not an individual candidate.  Since interim replacements are usually based on co-options as opposed to by-elections, only by-election predictions are made

Six months on the eve of Quebec’s 43^rd General Election and the governing Coalition d’Avenir Quebec continues to maintain it’s overall standing of support at around two fifths of the electorate.  The opposition remains divided, with no party consistently polling more than one fifth support.  The separatist Parti Quebecois, at one point one of the two main parties since the early 1970s, is in most polls around half their support in the 2018 election, which in turn was their lowest ever level of support in terms of popular vote since it’s founding in 1968.

The PQ has long been dominant in this section of the Monteregie region, essentially that part of Quebec lying mostly to the south or east of Montreal on south shore of the Saint Lawrence River, in addition to Vaudreuil.  For nearly the entirety of Marie-Victorin’s 41-year existence it has been held by PQ MNAs.  A portion of the riding was formerly in Taillon, which was held by none other than former Quebec PQ Premiers Rene Levesque and Pauline Marois.  In the 2018 election, Marie-Victorin was the only PQ win within the greater Montreal region.  The last MNA, Catherine Fournier, kept the riding by a mere 700 votes over the CAQ candidate, but later left the PQ and sat as an independent before resigning and winning the mayorship of Longueuil. 

The current standard bearer for the PQ is Pierre Nantel, who was formerly the NDP MP for Longueuil-St. Hubert between 2011-15, before losing the riding as the Green candidate in the election that later year.  Another noteworthy candidate is Martine Ouellette, for Climat Quebec, herself formerly the Bloc Quebecois leader and before that the PQ MNA for nearby Vachon, also a former PQ stronghold.  It is anticipated that while Ouellette may not win more than 10% of the vote, her name recognition is sufficient to draw votes away from Nantel since they are drawing off the same reserve of green, sovereigntist voters.

For the left-wing, sovereigntist Quebec Solidaire candidate Shophika Vaithyanathasarma and Liberal Émilie Nollet, the fight is more for second place as the plausible alternative to the CAQ.  The Liberals only held the riding during a brief period of time after a 1984 by-election, losing it again to the PQ in 1985 in what was otherwise a Liberal landslide.  All indications are that QS is holding their own in opinion polling, and will likely retain a comparable vote percentage as in 2018.  The Liberals may see a decline in vote share, mirroring their province-wide slide in opinion polling – in their view retaining their 2018 vote share may be the best possible result.

The big unknown is the surging Parti Conservateur, a right-wing federalist party opposed to a number of COVID-19 pandemic mandates.  Historically the reconstituted Conservateurs are a minor-factor in Longueuil elections, but with some provincial polling putting the party in a distant second place, the likelihood of significant vote gains seems to be high.  Contrary to most expectations, however, the Conservateurs have expanded support provincially while the CAQ has effectively retained their vote share, with the opposition parties experiencing more decline than the government.

Part of this could be explained that the popularity of the CAQ and it’s leader, Premier Legault, and their hold on swing voters.  Another factor is the fact that the previous Liberal-PQ alignment in Quebec politics spanning 1970 – 2018 concealed behind the question of federalism versus sovereignty a number of left-right alignments, that in the absence of an ideological debate, remained concealed until the alignment fell apart.  Therefore, the relative stability of CAQ support, and the relative decline of Liberal and PQ support especially, could be attributed to the resorting of political alignments away from the old federalist-separatist divide.  Another factor that might be just as significant if not more so might be the general malaise with pandemic measures fueling Conservateur support from all sides of the political spectrum

In any event, all indications are that the CAQ support, even if it moderately declines to 2018 levels in the riding, will be sufficient to propel CAQ candidate Shirley Dorismond to victory, with Conservateur Anna Casabonne having a good chance of outpolling everyone but the CAQ, PQ and QS candidates, which mirrors the province wide trend.

The bottom line is the ridings’s winner will benefit from voting splits of the opposition, in addition to the province wide trends, and if Nantel loses the former stronghold, it will be attributable to the far more likely PQ-QS-Ouellet split, and overall PQ decline, than any anticipated CAQ-Conservateur vote split.

A quick synopsis of the race:

After nearly 6 years in power, the Premier Heather Stefanson’s Manitoba PCs are running behind Wab Kinew’s NDP, but only in the single digits in most polls.  This suggests that the core PC vote remains essentially intact and any NDP opposition lead would not be insurmountable for the PCs in the next election.

The former Premier, Brian Pallister, represented Fort Whyte in the Winnipeg area and vacated the seat shortly after announcing his resignation as Premier last summer.

Fort Whyte was created out of 3 southwest Winnipeg ridings in time for the 1999 provincial election and is considered a safe PC riding, with the party holding the seat for the entirety of its existence to date.  It is a relatively well-off riding with nearly half the population holding university degrees, and an above average household income.  It also boasts a large and diverse immigrant population. 

The Manitoba Liberals generally perform better in this riding than in the province as a whole, in the last election almost outplacing the NDP for second place.  However, the PC margin of victory has seldom dipped below 20%, and each election they have successfully kept their overall share of the vote above 50%.

The Liberals have made a serious attempt to win the riding in recruiting a star candidate, former Blue Bomber and Grey Cup champion Willard Reeves (who also played in the National Football League). 

The PCs have as their own candidate another former Blue Bomber, Ibrahim “Obby” Kahn, now a local restauranteur.  The NDP have nominated Trudy Schroeder, former Executive Director of the Winnipeg Symphony Orchestra, with the Greens’ Nicolas Geddert and a staunchly anti-pandemic mandate independent, Patrick Allard, the last two of whom are seen as unlikely to carry the riding.

Both the Liberals and PC candidacies has encountered some level of controversy – with the Liberals being asked by the Blue Bombers to stop selling merchandise with a “W” logo, while representing the first letter of the candidate’s name also seen as bearing a resemblance to the club’s logo.  With Mr. Kahn the Liberals questioned $500,000 awarded to Mr. Kahn’s Good Local online marketplace venture as part of a $1.5 million grant aimed at promoting shop local efforts, in noting that other businesses did not get any grant money.  The PC Government responded that this was just one of several financial programs aimed at helping small businesses during the recent pandemic.

The main issues in the election are reportedly the pandemic response, health care, housing and social services. 

While the NDP may hold an overall polling lead in the Winnipeg area, and Schroeder is in part urging voters to back her candidacy as supporting the party most likely to replace the PC government, the Liberals undoubtedly have a high-profile candidate and historically stronger support levels in the area that makes them significant factors in the overall vote. 

It will likely come down to the two former Blue Bombers making a play for the riding, with the historical voting trend and the still significant province-wide levels of support for the government making it more unlikely that the PCs lose in today’s vote, and with Mr. Kahn taking a seat in the provincial legislature alongside another blue team.  If it does go the other way, however, it could portend a larger defeat for the government in the next general election than what provincial polling currently suggests.

First order of business – “la biche” refers to “elk” in French, as in “Lake of the Elk”.

Today’s by-election was precipitated by the resignation of the previous MLA, Laila Goodridge, who successfully contested the federal riding of Fort McMurray – Cold Lake for the Conservative Party in last year’s election.

Despite rising oil prices and an end to a significant number of pandemic measures, Premier Jason Kenney remains unpopular, not only trailing the NDP by double digits in most polls province wide for more than the past year, but also languishes in support amongst the rank and file of his United Conservative Party.  Two MLAs were ejected last year from caucus due to criticism on their part of Kenney’s COVID-19 response.  On April 9^th, Premier Kenney is to face a party leadership review in Red Deer.  Most observes believe that less than 70% could potentially spell trouble for the Premier’s continued leadership, while less than 50% would automatically end his leadership of the party.

This makes the vote in Fort McMurray – Lac La Biche all the more interesting, since his one-time and now current political rival Brian Jean has been selected to carry the UCP banner, and has openly called for Kenney to step aside.  While both served in the Conservative caucus of Stephen Harper in Ottawa, they have been rivals since at least the formation of the UCP back in 2017.  Kenney was previously the Alberta PC leader, and Jean the leader of the more populist, rural-base Wildrose Political Association.  The split of the right-of-center vote contributed to an unprecedented NDP victory in the previous 2015 election, ending 44 years of PC governments, and a merger was seen as the best way forward to end any prospect of an NDP dynasty. 

Both men have contrasting styles reflective of the parties they previously led prior to the merger.  Premier Kenney is seen as having a more business-friendly style crafted for an urban electorate, and was previously credited as federal Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism for helping forge critical inroads in the Greater Toronto Area for the Conservatives to help solidify their 2011 majority win.  Jean’s style is seen as more rural-based and populist, although both have been able to convey messages that speak to a wider electorate at large.

The resulting 2017 leadership campaign of the then newly minted UCP was controversial as it was acrimonious. While Kenney emerged victorious, accusations of duplicity in allegedly supporting a third candidate who was in turn accused of running solely to undermine Jean, (not legitimately contending the leadership in his own right) caused reverberations right down to the grass roots level of the party.  Some believe this contributed to Kenney never truly commanding the loyalty and respect of the entire UCP, despite his 2019 win. Jean, citing personal reasons including the destruction of his home in the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, did not remain in caucus long after Kenney’s election as leader and left prior to the 2019 election.  When commodity prices tumbled and the pandemic materialized, Kenney’s popularity took a considerable hit, with no poll after the middle of 2021 showing a UCP lead, and opposition to his leadership becoming more open within his party.

Goodridge’s election as MP last fall provided Jean with an opening to run as MLA and increase his presence as he openly calls for Kenney’s ouster as leader.  While intraparty leadership feuds in Canada have often spilled out into the open, this instance is more unusual in that Kenney had pledged to sign the nomination papers of whomever won the UCP nomination in the riding regardless of loyalty to his leadership. Ultimately he ended up allowing the candidacy of not only someone openly hostile to his leadership, but someone who in the eyes of party members might make Kenney’s replacement more politically palatable as a key replacement prospect.  A federal equivalent might be comparable to an instance of Joe Clark allowing an openly hostile Brian Mulroney to contest Joliette back in 1981, (Mulroney declined to openly call for Clark’s resignation and did not run for parliament prior to his election as leader in 1983) or another fabled feud such as Chretien-Martin; Turner-Chretien or Diefenbaker-Camp.  It does stretch the imagination to see where an incumbent party leader wouldn’t make a more direct attempt to protect themselves against a significant rival.

In any event, few observers expect to see the UCP lose Fort McMurray – Lac La Biche today, which has elected right-of-center candidates since 1971 (the area as constituted in several different constituencies).  Interestingly the riding did return Liberal MLAs during a significant part of the previous 36-year Social Credit dynasty (prior to the PC dynasty), as one of the few parts of the province not to elect an MLA on the government side. 

NDP candidate Ariana Mancini is considered to be the main rival in the unlikely event of an upset; an even more unlikely chance would be Wildrose Independence leader Paul Hinman, also contesting the riding.  The Alberta and Liberal parties are also both fielding candidates as well as the Alberta Independence, Alberta Advantage parties in addition to one independent.

Note: Article previously mentioned that Social Credit dynasty was 31 years … 1971 – 1935 = 36 years.

Strengthened by a healthy national polling lead average, Labour is expected to hang onto the Birmingham Erdington seat held by their party since the riding’s recreation in 1974, and comparable area since 1945. 

The by-election was precipitated by the death of Jack Dromey, M.P. since 2010, of natural causes.  The seat was previously held by Labour M.P.s Sion Simon (2001 – 10); Robin Corbett (1983 – 2001) and Julius Silverman (1945 – 55 and 1974 – 83; representing the comparable area of Birmingham Aston in the interlude between 1955 – 74).

Councillor Robert Alden is contesting for the Conservatives, teacher Lee Dargue is contesting for the Liberal Democrats.  Both the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates have previously represented their respective parties, with Councillor Alden representing the Conservatives in the four previous elections, and Mr. Dargue having contested Birmingham Ladywood for the LDs in the last two general elections.

Birmingham Councillor Paulette Hamilton is the standard bearer for Labour, while it is true that the candidate has made previous comments widely perceived to be controversial, (even to the extent that another Birmingham M.P., Conservative Gary Sambrook from Birmingham Northfield, has called for Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer to suspend her if she is elected), underlying political dynamics make her the clear favorite in today’s vote.  The comments she reportedly made in 2015 pertained to both two sitting Birmingham Labour M.P.s not looking after ‘the needs of the community’ as well as musing about not getting ‘what we really deserve in this country using the votes … but I don’t know if we are a strong enough to get what we want to get if we have an uprising.  I think we will be quashed in such a way we could lose a generation of our young people.  So I am very torn.”  Starmer though has appeared alongside Councillor Hamilton during the campaign and it appears unlikely that the controversy would either result in Labour losing the constituency or Hamilton being suspended if elected.

This by-election was prompted by the resignation of long-time NDP M.L.A. Buckley Belanger last August, who ran unsuccessfully for the federal Liberals in the corresponding federal riding of Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River in last year’s election.

The NDP candidate running to replace Belanger is former NDP M.P. Georgina Jolibois, who represented the same seat Belanger contested between 2015 – 19. Jolibois carried the federal riding by 82 votes in 2015 over the Liberal, but ended up losing to Conservative Gary Vidal in 2019 by a wide margin, the same candidate who defeated Belanger last fall.

The riding’s roots stretch back to the nearly the beginning of the Saskatchewan Legislative Assembly, and has only been represented by either Liberal or CCF/NDP representatives throughout it’s 114 years of representation. Belanger himself was first elected as a Liberal in 1995 until joining the then-NDP government in 1998. Throughout his tenure he carried the riding by wide margins, with the right-leaning Saskatchewan Party not coming close to carrying the riding despite a number of province-wide sweeps. The last closely contested election was in 1995 when Belanger beat NDP incumbent Fred Thompson. Thompson for his part carried the riding by wide margins even during the two PC wins in the 1980s. Prior to that point, the 1971 general and 1972 by-elections were the last time the riding was closely contested, with Liberal incumbent Allan Ray Guy winning by 12 votes in the general, having that win over turned with a judicial recount and hanging on by 30 votes in the resulting by-election next year.

The Saskatchewan Party government headed by Scott Moe is heading into the middle of it’s current term, with a 10 point lead in province-wide opinion polls, but down from a nearly 30 point spread at the last general. Even with a 30 point deficit, NDP support has continued to remain sufficiently strong in a number of urban ridings as well as the two far-northern ridings for this riding to likely stay in the NDP column, and with a 10 point deficit province-wide, it is likely that NDP candidate Jolibois will win by a fairly wide margin in today’s election contest.

Despite languishing poll numbers and concerns about very low turnout, the Conservatives are expected to retain Southend West in the February 3rd by-election.

The previous M.P., Sir David Amess, was killed in a terrorist incident during a constituency meeting in October, 2021.

The main opposition political parties, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Green and Reform UK, did not field candidates in alignment with the precedent set in 2016 at the Batley and Spen by-election held after the murder of Labour M.P. Jo Cox earlier that year.

Despite anticipated low turnout, the lack of mainstream parties on the ballot favours the Conservative candidate, probably around the 50% mark. There would be a <1% chance of an upset, from either the UKIP, far-right independent Jayda Fransen or the English Democrat candidates, in that respective order.

The year 2022 in U.S. politics starts with a relatively quiet and fairly predictable election contest in southern Florida.. After the passing of previous incumbent Alcee Hastings, D and a markedly contentious Democratic primary last year to succeed him, the progressive nominee Shelia Cherfilus-McCormick (who won by 5 votes in the primary over Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness) is expected to win over Republican Jason Mariner. A Libertarian and two Independents are also on the ballot. The 20th Florida Congressional district took it’s present form beginning in 2012, comprising parts of Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach (parts of Broward and Palm Beach Counties), and extending to the shores of Lake Okeechobee and including the community of Belle Glade. Congressman Hastings won successive victories with next to 80% of the vote … if Cherfilus-McCormick continues this trend of garnering 4/5ths of the vote it would not portend anything apart from normal voting patterns for Democrats … a vote significantly lower might be indicative of the aftermath of the contentious Democratic party or overall lack of interest in the special election as opposed to any great surge in Republican support (where Democrats as a whole have bucked statewide trends in polling stronger in this district since 2016).

Currently embattled Conservative U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is running in the single digits behind Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer, but in the last several weeks has seen his leadership tested by revelations of senior Conservatives flouting their own COVID-19 rules in holding Christmas parties last year; as well as struggling to pass new COVID-19 measures with nearly a third of his caucus defying his direction and forcing him to rely on opposition support.

This comes after he was responsible for whipping his caucus to overturn a suspension on the former Conservative M.P. for North Shropshire, Owen Patterson, who resigned his seat after being accused of violating lobbying rules on behalf of two companies. Earlier Johnson faced controversy over expenses related to the refurbishment of his flat and a luxury vacation he took.

As Mr. Patterson’s resignation has trigged the by-election, the main question will be if over a century of solid Conservative voting history will be enough to overcome some ominous clouds in the middle of Johnson’s mandate.

In looking at the voting history of North Shropshire, and the earlier constituency that roughly encompassed the same area, Oswestry (which was in turn preceded by North Shropshire for most of the 19th century) it is impressive how long the Tory blue streak has continued.

First created in 1832 as a dual member constituency, North Shropshire initially had as one of their two M.P.s a Whig, John Coates, but was otherwise solid Tory through the constituency’s abolishment in 1885. The constituency of Oswestry compromised much the same area and continued much the same voting patterns, only being interrupted in a 1904 by-election where Liberal Allan Bright won a close vote, only to lose the seat to the Tories in the general election in 1906. While a few elections thereafter were close fought, by the 1930s the Conservatives routinely won with double digit leads, and the pattern continued through the reconstitution of the area back to North Shropshire in 1983, and saw a close race only during Labour’s 1997 landslide win, where the open seat saw Owen Patternson beat the Labour challenger by only 4 percentage points or 2,000 votes.

Beset by numerous controversies and scandals, by-elections are traditionally a way for constituencies to sometimes break free of traditional voting patterns and send a message to the Government without fear of unduly rocking the boat (if the Government’s majority is otherwise secure). It would be a combination of some conscious movement towards consolidating behind the Liberal Democratic candidate, Helen Morgan; plus general Tory disaffection and low turnout on their part that would likely give Ms. Morgan a narrow win. The Tory candidate who, if victorious, would likely have a narrow win as well, is Dr. Neil Shastri Hurst, a NHS surgeon who has pointedly condemned the Conservative Christmas festivities last year and promised to bring more funding for NHS services in the area. But while health services is the local issue, it is under the backdrop of the larger issue of Boris Johnson’s leadership that this election is likely to turn.

It is interesting to note that the characterization of the 1904 by-election producing the last non-Tory win in the area, as quoted through Wikipedia “The result was ‘a great surprise for both Conservatives and Liberals alike‘. Bright believed that the electorate had rejected the government, and that ‘the whole of Shropshire politics had been simply a policy of Tory bluff and the people seemed to have got tired of it‘.”

While there is no way that they could have anticipated the circumstances 117 years later, but should the Liberal Democrat pull out a win, the same might be written today leading one to wonder if history really does repeat itself.