My first prediction out of the gate for the December 12th U.K. General Election shows a respectable majority for the incumbent Conservatives, at 351, even as their share of the vote will likely fall to 37% due to the emergent Brexit Party. While the gap between Conservatives and Labour will narrow from a current 10% + lead, finally settling at 9.5%, this will be a recent lowpoint for Labour at 204 seats. The Scottish Nationalist Party will take third place in seats with 45, while the Liberal Democrats will take 28, Plaid Cymru at 3 and the Greens at 1. The 18 Northern Ireland seats will see the Democratic Unionist Party at 10, Sinn Fein at 5, while the Social Democratic and Labour Party, the Ulster Unionists and the lone independent get a seat a piece. Much like the United Kingdom Independent Party in 2015, where the party received 12.6% of the vote but only 1 seat, the Brexit Party will have their share of the vote, projected to be roughly 10%, spread fairly evenly throughout England and Wales but where the party may very likely finish with no representation in Parliament.

Stay tuned for weekly analysis each Thursday, where I will make any needed revisions to my predictions and provide more in depth analysis of the latest election trends.