As the country enters into week 5 of the election campaign, it appears as though a number of trend lines are emerging that might carry through to voting day.  The English language debate came and went, by most analysts’ reckoning, without a knockout punch.  It was the French debate that might have been more decisive, directly at the expense of the Conservatives, but ultimately at the expense of the Liberals.

Several polls since that debate indicated that the Bloc had made up some ground in Quebec, with two very recent polls showing the race in Quebec essentially tied between them and the Liberals.  This shift in popular support came largely at the expense of the Conservatives, who were widely seen to be the losers in French language debate. They had less to lose, however, since the most optimistic projections showed maybe a dozen or so ridings in Quebec going blue.  The Liberals have largely kept their support, maybe a few points less in some polls, but largely intact.  The problem they have is in losing any amount of Quebec support, to one main rival (i.e. the Bloc), rather than a vote split, they run into the math of voting inefficiency, which previously beset the other parties far more. Any gains from the Bloc are likely to be sufficiently disbursed around the province to put potentially 2 dozen seats into serious contention (which my model reflects); the Liberals meanwhile remain strongest in the western part of Montreal and are very dependent on voting splits elsewhere to win seats.

Ironically, the Conservatives losing support in Quebec might actually help them form a government, possibly more so than if they had held onto or expanded their support.  If Bloc gains at their expense (again, in votes, not so much in seats since they weren’t going to win that many to begin with) – that hurts the Liberals and quite possibly edges the Conservatives slightly ahead in the seat count.

It is worth noting that a lot of time remains between now and the election, and the dynamics of a tight horse race seem likely to continue during the remainder of the campaign.  A subsequent french language debate might see Trudeau successfully reverse his fortunes in tampering down any Bloc resurgence; alternatively a foreboding sense on the part of left-of-centre voters fearing a Conservative government might prompt them to coalesce behind the strongest left-of-centre candidate in marginal ridings at the eleventh hour, and push the Liberals/NDP/Greens past the 170 mark.

The road to 24 Sussex appears to run through Quebec, having the most ridings in play with fairly tight margins, it would not take too much to tip the balance towards or away from the Liberal incumbents. A strong performance by Andrew Scheer in the next French debate, hurting the Bloc, may just turn out to be Justin Trudeau’s best hope for a second term.

Conservative – 32.73% and 141 Seats

Liberal – 31.27% and 132 Seats

Bloc Quebecois – 7.2% and 33 Seats

NDP – 15.87% and 28 Seats

Green – 9.7% and 2 Seats

plus M. Bernier for the PPC in Beauce, Ms. Wilson-Raybould, IND, in Vancouver Granville