I’m still in the process of fine tuning my model, basically things have changed very little in the last week, with most polling showing a slight Conservative lead in the popular vote and a small Liberal advantage in terms of seats. This week the Liberal seat count was revised slightly downward, in trying to model the most realistic seat outcome with a 2 point popular vote deficit. I still think York Region above Toronto might have 2-3 more red ridings, which netting against maybe 1-2 seats less in the Lac St. Jean area might push the Liberals just above the 150 seat mark. Also different this week, a potential Liberal hold in Calgary, and likewise for the NDP in Rimouski. A number of ridings are truly on the knife’s edge, places such as Kenora, St. Catherine’s, Kitchener South Hespeler, Burnaby-North Seymour (all coded blue this week); these could almost as easily be shaded another colour, and influence who forms the next government. At this point, this is looking very similar to another previous election in October, this one held the day before Hallowe’en back in 1972, when another Trudeau, after having won a resounding majority 4 years prior, barely scrapped ahead in seats (2 ahead of the Progressive Conservatives) and clung to power over the next 20 months propped up by the NDP.

Liberals – 32.32% – 149 Seats

Conserv. – 34.91% – 141 Seats

NDP – 14.74% – 27 Seats

Bloc – 5.03% – 16 Seats

Green – 9.44% – 3 Seats

People’s – 2.75% – 1 Seat

Other – 0.81% – 1 Seat