The governing Conservatives once again find themselves on the defensive in two by-elections in England with seats they won in 2019 with strong majorities. The Tamworth constituency in Staffordshire was vacated with the resignation of Chris Pincher, accused of sexual harassment (a contributing factor in clouding the Premiership of Boris Johnson with respect to how much he knew, “Pincher by name, pincher by nature”). The Mid Bedfordshire constituency held by Nadine Dorries was vacated with her resignation ten weeks after she had first indicated she would do so, after failing to have secured a peerage to the House of Lords.
The Mid Bedfordshire constituency was existing in its current form since 1918 and has been held by the Conservatives continuously since 1931. Labour has never held this seat. It is a rural ‘county’ constituency with the two largest towns being Ampthill and Flitwick, roughly 70 miles (45km) from the heart of London. Income is above average. The riding was closely divided in the Brexit referendum but tilted slightly to the Leave option.
The Tamworth constituency has existed in various forms for the last 460 years and is centered around the market town of Tamworth in the south of Staffordshire, West Midlands region. It is approximately 18 miles (30km) from central Birmingham. It was perhaps most notably represented by Sir Robert Peel, a UK Prime Minister in the mid-19th century, a Conservative noted for his pro-free trade stance. Although Tamworth has a slightly larger Conservative majority in 2019 than Mid Bedfordshire, it is considered a bellwether constituency, last held by Labour’s Brian Jenkins up to 2010. It voted heavily for Leave in the Brexit referendum, at 66%. Income is around the U.K. average.
The Conservatives are weighed down by the legacy of the two former MPs, particular Ms. Dorries, according to local news reports. Several news reports relayed the impression of many voters of that of an absentee MP who was neither accessible nor very responsive. The current Conservative candidate in Tamworth, Andrew Cooper, was embroiled in at least some controversy when a social media post disparaging struggling parents some years ago emerged. Both he, and the Mid Bedfordshire Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, (Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner) have generally opted to a more low-profile campaign. This is against the overall backdrop of Conservatives polling anywhere from 12 – 20 points behind Labour nationally.
Interestingly, the Conservative Party generated a memo then obtained by media sources projecting that vote shares in both byelections to be essentially halved to around 30 percent. The memo did not actually project a huge swing towards Labour so much as disillusioned Conservative voters not showing up to vote. There was some speculation the memo was ‘leaked’ to help manage expectations.
Labour would be seen as the main alternative in Tamworth with union official Sarah Edwards as the candidate. There was some controversy as to her actual residence as reported by the Daily Mail. In Mid Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern is standing for Labour, previously a councilor on the Waltham Forest London Borough Council and specialist at the Bank of England on climate insurance. While Labour remains ahead nationally, it might be noted that depending on the poll, approval ratings for Sir Keir Starmer are more mixed, with a mixture of approval and disapproval. They have also played down their ‘moonshot’ chances of winning ‘supersafe‘ Tory seats.
The Liberal Democrats are considered to be a complicating factor in the Mid Bedfordshire constituency, where polling has local councilor and charity executive Emma Holland-Lindsay in a strong third place position behind the Conservatives and Labour, both tied in a recent poll. While the Liberals historically have held the constituency, and the Liberal Democrats are seen as making a serious bid for the seat (the type of rural English, soft leave constituency they might be expected to do well in) in the last 30 years they have only once succeeded in being a clear second to the Conservatives, that being the election of 2010. While there have been arguments for tactical voting for either party so the Conservatives don’t squeak through, there has been reports of some friction on the ground between the two organizations.
While Tamworth is technically a bellwether, it is also seen by virtue of the strong leave vote as being a ‘red wall’ constituency, the type of working-class constituency both Labour and the Conservatives need to form a majority government. I calculated the necessary swing here to be 21.3% from Conservative to Labour, which during the recent rounds of by-elections was previously exceeded by Labour in Selby and Ainsty. If the Conservatives were to retain Tamworth, that might portend some disquiet on the Labour benches that they might not be able to achieve a majority, despite their high polling nationally.
Mid Bedfordshire, on the other hand, could go one of three ways, and is not seen as critical to Labour majority hopes, not having won the constituency before in its 105-year history. The swing Labour would need here is just over 19%, again, within the realm of possibility. The significance of a Labour win in a constituency they never previously held would reinforce the message that the incumbent Conservatives are headed towards a resounding defeat, at least as voting trends presently are.
By-elections in the UK generally produce larger swings than at general elections. The central London constituency of Bermondsey had the largest swing of any modern byelection in 1983, the Liberals winning a 44.2% swing from Labour. It isn’t unusual to see swings in the low 20 percent range, with varying levels of turnout and the chance for voters to send a message without, in most cases, seriously altering the balance of power. The 1994 Dudley West byelection has to date been the biggest Conservative to Labour swing at 29%, at a time where Labour has running around 30 points ahead of the then governing Conservatives.
In predicting these two races, I would defer to two former Conservative local elected officials in Tamworth, including a former mayor, who believe that the Labour Party will eke out a win due to Conservative troubles both locally and nationally. Mid Bedfordshire will be harder to predict – to the extent that the Liberal Democrats achieve a strong vote share, that will likely put the Conservative candidate ahead rather than being elected in their own right, since Labour is a factor. Ultimately it comes down, however, to the message that the voters wish to send, especially with the previous MP, Ms. Dorries, plus the fact that the necessary swing to flip the seat here is less than in Tamworth, and nationally the Liberal Democrats have not notably benefited, per polling, from the Conservative decline. I’d differ somewhat from the betting websites putting odds on the Conservatives to retain the seat, for those aforementioned reasons, I’d place them myself at 40% (or 3/2). That said, if the Conservatives retained Mid Bedfordshire, it would be much less surprising than if they held Tamworth.
It may be of more consequence to Labour that they won the earlier Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, since they have never previously won a majority government in the UK without significant Scottish support (something both the UK and Canada have in common, btw – regional parties such as the Bloc Quebecois and Scottish Nationalists currently pose a real challenge to both left-of-centre parties from winning an outright majority even if conditions are otherwise quite favourable).
Special thanks to Niamh Baker and Elise Uberoi, the UK House of Commons Library, Research Briefing on their excellent paper on Electoral Swings