A non-voting Louisiana Resident thanks to Morgane Perraud

Update 10.34 pm Central – for the first time since 2011, the Louisiana Governor’s race appears to have been decided in the first round of voting, and the first time since 2007 that a non-incumbent won the first round.

Louisiana’s off-year election is characterized by a ‘jungle primary’ where all candidates for a particular office, regardless of party, are on the same ballot, if no one individual candidate gets 50% + of the vote, the election goes to a runoff with the highest two vote getters.

Incumbent Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards is term limited.  Running to replace him were two Democrats, seven Republicans and 5 independents.  As predicted, Jeff Landry picked up the most votes, ultimately winning in the first round, while Democratic Shawn Wilson placed second. Accoridng to preliminary returns, Landry won nearly all counties save for 4 – East Carroll on the Mississippi (north east part of state), Orleans (New Orleans), East Baton Rouge and St. John the Baptist (near New Orleans).

Also on the ballot today are 4 referendum questions, other statewide offices for Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasurer, and all 105 Louisiana State House Districts and 39 State Senate Districts.  The Governor’s race is expected to be the most closely watched, although the most competitive race might be House #105 in the southeastern part of the state, which former U.S. President Donald Trump carried by single digits.  There is expected to be no change in control of any of the other offices (statewide) or legislative chambers, where the Republicans currently maintain a super majority in each.

Another distinguished local, fishing for food, or campaiging for votes? thanks to Benjamin Zanatta

The Republican frontrunner, Jeff Landry, is the current state Attorney General.  Most observers consider the former U.S. Congressman a staunch conservative who has not shied away from controversy.  During Governor Edwards’ term, he clashed with the Governor on issues such as LGBTQ protections in the awarding of state contracts and how to handle a lawsuit regarding Common Core (education standards), He was part of a lawsuit seeking to challenge the 2020 election results in several states U.S. President Donald Trump had lost, and later on filed a suit against the Biden Administration over requirements that healthcare workers be vaccinated against COVID-19.  Landry is focused on abortion, crime, social issues, taxation, and home insurance, among other issues in his campaign.

Several of Landry’s GOP rivals registered dismay over how the state GOP party officially endorsed Mr. Landry early on, allegedly without much transparency, and likewise they expressed disdain over how Mr. Landry had not participated in several election debates.  Polling showed that it was unlikely any of his Republican rivals will make much headway, and in the end even the fact that 6 other Republican candidates ran in the primary, the vote was sufficiently consolidated on the first round for Landry to win.

The main Democratic candidate, Shawn Wilson, holds a Ph.D. in Public Administration, served in several public service roles, including most recently as Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development under Governor Edwards.  His campaign has also addressed home insurance, increased accessibility in health care, crime, education, and the economy, to name a few.

Alot of varied architecture in New Orleans, thanks to JB

Governor Edwards was able to break the long-term trend towards Republican voting in the state at least partly by carving out some fairly conservative positions atypical of the Democrats on such issues as abortion, where he signed a six-week abortion ban.  However, he has taken some more liberal positions regarding LGBTQ protections, expanding Medicaid, and vetoed a ban on gender-affirming care (which was then overridden by the Republican-controlled legislature).  While Wilson is seen as more liberal than Edwards, he has referenced appealing to middle ground and in so doing, “satisfy the masses.” 

Louisiana has long been known to have colorful personalities and a brand of politics unique to the Pelican state.  The end result is that over the past 70 years, Louisiana politics has been fairly competitive between the two parties on a national level between 1952 and 2000, although the designation of blue versus red states since then has placed Louisiana as a consistent member of the Team Red, with Democrats taking no more than 40% of the vote, and the Republicans no less than 56% from 2004 onwards.  National debates and a broad rural/urban divide appear to have supplanted the older, more dynamic political alignments of the state based on demographics and geographical/cultural regions within the state.

The state has faced a few challenges after being hit with several strong hurricanes in recent years, a decline in population and a significant rise in homeowner’s insurance rates after a number of insurers pulled out of the state market after recent weather-related events, widely attributed to climate change.

The end result of a Republican win for Governor has historically little portent for how Louisiana might vote in the next Presidential election, never mind the country as a whole.  For instance, in 1995 Mike Foster, Republican, won the Governor’s race but the following year both Louisiana and the country at large reelected Democrat Bill Clinton.  In 2003 Kathleene Blanco won the Governor’s race for the Democrats, but again, both state and country reelected Republican George W Bush as President the following year.  Bobby Jindal reclaimed the Governor’s office for the Republicans in 2007, and while the state consistently voted Republican for President ever since, the country has alternated between Republican and Democratic nominees for President.

New Orleans at night – great food, great entertainment thanks to David Reynolds

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So, the main takeaway – if Republicans, as expected, win the Governor’s race this fall, and claim to have some momentum going forward (especially since the Republican frontrunner was endorsed by Donald Trump), they might bear in mind that historically, at least, Louisiana Governor’s races generally don’t foretell any national outcomes the following year where the winning party is concerned. It might be telling, however, that the 1st round win by Landry might portend a more united Republican party for next year, at least in this one crimson red state. If the final results show that the Democrats underperformed, it can’t be discounted that some of the independent vote might have siphoned off support, (as well as a lower turnout), both of which might end up being portents for next year nationally as well.