This past week in the Canadian election campaign has seen a discernable trend towards the NDP outside of Quebec and the Bloc making inroads in la belle province. Both Conservative and Liberal support has trended downward into the lower 30s, with both parties swapping leads in the opinion polls, mostly within the margin of error.

It is noteworthy that early voting has surged across the country, with early estimates suggesting that perhaps one quarter of all votes have already been cast. Thus, any late breaking trend will need to have that much more of a margin to appreciably alter the race, assuming that early vote results are in line with current polling. One survey suggested that early voting saw a greater share of Liberal/Conservative votes than what polls current surveys suggest, with Liberals leading in Eastern Canada and Conservatives leading out west. This contributes to the math looking slightly more favourable to the Liberals.

Today a former U.S. President broke precedent on not endorsing candidates in a Canadian election – Barack Obama endorsed the incumbent Justin Trudeau, adding that, in his view, Trudeau’s progressive leadership is necessary in the world today. It is difficult to gauge the impact of this high-profile endorsement – it might serve to direct voters fearful of a Conservative government but otherwise undecided back to the Liberal fold; others might be reminded of a perceived need for progressive leadership from Canada in a world where populism is politically more en vogue. Ultimately I calculated that the endorsement might serve to move a tenth of a percent back towards the Liberals, which would net them exactly one seat, St. John in New Brunswick.

At this point, most of the trend lines are baked in the cake and barring any late breaking trends or unforeseen developments, I do not anticipate any significant changes from my prediction of a handful of seats separating the ultimately victorious Liberals from the Conservatives. All the same, I will update these predictions one last time on the evening of Sunday, October 20th. The most likely scenario would have the Liberals supported by the NDP, and perhaps the Greens, through most of 2020 and then a subsequent election held either later next year or in the Spring of 2021.

As stated two weeks previously, 2019 is beginning to look more and more like 1972 as far as Canadian politics is concerned.

Liberals – 31.5 % and 140 Seats

Conservatives – 31.8% and 132 Seats

NDP – 17.1% and 32 Seats

Bloc – 6.82% and 29 Seats

Green – 9.75 % and 3 Seats

People’s Party of Canada – 2.3% and 1 Seat

plus Ms. Wilson-Raybould from Vancouver Granville in British Columbia.